Activity planning processes in the Agent-based Dynamic Activity Planning and Travel Scheduling (ADAPTS) model

This paper describes the representation of the activity planning process utilized in a new activity-based microsimulation model called the ADAPTS (Agent-based Dynamic Activity Planning and Travel Scheduling) model, which dynamically simulates activity and travel planning and scheduling. The model utilizes a dynamic activity planning framework within the larger overall microsimulation system, which is a computational process model that attempts to replicate the decisions which comprise time-dependent activity scheduling. The model presents a step forward in which the usual concepts of activity generation and activity scheduling are significantly enhanced by adding an additional component referred to as activity planning in which the various attributes which describe the activity are determined. The model framework, therefore, separates activity planning from activity generation and treats all three components, generation, planning and scheduling, as separate discrete but dynamic events within the overall microsimulation. The development of the planning order model, which determines when and in what order each activity planning decision is made is the specific focus of this paper. The models comprising the planning order framework are developed using recent survey data from a GPS-based prompted recall survey. The model development, estimation, validation, and its use within the overall ADAPTS system are discussed. A significant finding of the study is the verification of the apparent transferability of the activity planning order model.     

Modeling adoption timing of autonomous vehicles: innovation diffusion approach

Autonomous vehicles (AVs) are expected to act as an economically-disruptive transportation technology offering several benefits to the society and causing significant changes in travel behavior and network performance. However, one of the critical issues that policymakers are facing is the absence of a sound estimation of their market penetration. This study is an effort to quantify the effect of different drivers on the adoption timing of AVs. To this end, we develop an innovation diffusion model in which individuals’ propensities to adopt a new technology such as AVs takes influence from a desire to innovate and a need to imitate the rest of the society. It also captures various sources of inter-personal heterogeneity. We found that conditional on our assumptions regarding the changes in market price of AVs over time, their market penetration in our study region (Chicago metropolitan area) will eventually reach 71.3%. Further, model estimation results show that a wide range of socio-demographic factors, travel pattern indicators, technology awareness, and perceptions of AVs are influential in people’s AV adoption timing decision. For instance, frequent long-distance travelers are found to make the adoption decision more innovatively while those who have experienced an accident in their lifetime are found to be more influenced by word of mouth.     

Modeling activity conflict resolution strategies using scheduling process data

Developments in activity scheduling process data have recently allowed for much improvement and validation of rule-based activity scheduling models. The use of actual scheduling process data allows for a potentially more realistic model in terms of how the travel episodes are actually derived. Since these types of models are simulations of the scheduling process, scheduling conflicts naturally arise in the creation of the final schedule. The handling of these scheduling conflicts is a critical component of all rule-based activity models. Many of these models rely on the concept of priority of the activities to resolve conflicts. However, recent research has shown that this is often not how conflicts are actually resolved. In order to more accurately model actual conflict resolution behavior, scheduling process data was used to estimate conflict resolution rules using decision trees. The use of a conflict resolution model allows the strategy chosen to depend on the attributes of the individual and the conflicting activities, rather than assuming a prior definition of precedence based on the activity types. The conflict resolution decision showed reasonable ability to predict the resolution strategy chosen in actual scheduling process survey data, and represents an important advance in developing a functional computational process model of activity scheduling.     

Effects of transportation and built environment on general health and obesity

We develop models to investigate the effects of transportation, land-use, and built environment variables along with demographic and socio-economic factors on people’s general health and obesity. The work showed that transit-oriented development has a significant positive impact on the general health and obesity of the people. The study results suggest that one percent decrease in the use of automobiles can decrease obesity by 0.4%.     

Evaluating the effects of external factors on pedestrian violations at signalized intersections (a case study of Mashhad,Iran)

One of the most critical reasons for accidents involving pedestrians in signalized urban intersections is their violations regarding running red lights. Therefore, studying the essential factors in this issue is of interest to researchers. This research aims to evaluate the external factors affecting the pedestrians' violation, specifically, factors regarding the geometrical design and traffic situation. Cameras recorded the behavior of 1590 pedestrians in 10 crosswalks of 6 intersections in Mashhad. Afterward, the effect of 12 distinct variables for each pedestrian was assessed. To analyze the data, SPSS was used in combination with binary logistic regression. Out of the nine variables participated in the model, “traffic volume”, “the number of violators”, “length of the crosswalk”, “red light duration”, and “physical movement problems” affect the pedestrians' decision to comply with or violate a red light. The analysis shows that with an increasing number of vehicles, the probability of violation would reduce by 9.5%. Moreover, if the number of other violating pedestrians grows, the probability of violation would increase significantly. The increase of one unit in “length of the crosswalk”, would result in a violation reduction of 13.9%. Also, if the pedestrian suffers from physical disabilities, the probability of violation decreases by 78.6%. On the other hand, the growth of one unit in “red light duration” would increase the violations by pedestrians 2.2%.     

An optimization approach to resolve activity scheduling conflicts in ADAPTS activity-based model

Activity conflict resolution as the core of scheduling process in activity-based modeling is a challenging step because the activity diary databases mostly report the outcome of the scheduling decisions and often fail to capture key factors influencing the resolution process itself. Consequently, most activity-based frameworks ignore modeling this process by using either predefined set of activity patterns or priority-based assumptions to schedule daily activities and prevent conflict occasions. ADAPTS is one of the few activity-based models that attempts to simulate the process of activity scheduling and resolve the conflicts as they occur. This paper advances the current rule-based conflict resolution model of ADAPTS by implementing an advanced and flexible non-linear optimization model. A set of linear optimization sub-models is then proposed that together perform the same task as the non-linear model, however they are much easier to implement and maintain, while fast to run and flexible to extend. The proposed approach defines an objective function, which aims to minimize the extent of changes in timing and duration of conflicting activities, while fitting them in the schedule. Comparing performance of the proposed model with TASHA scheduler and former resolution module of ADAPTS using CHASE scheduling process data reveals significant improvement in fitting the newly planned activities in the schedules with the minimal modifications in the timing and duration of activities.     

A behavioral analysis of freight mode choice decisions

This paper develops a behavioral analysis of freight mode choice decisions that could provide a basis for an acceptable analytical tool for policy assessment. The paper specifically examines the way that truck and rail compete for commodity movement in the US. Two binary mode choice models are introduced in which some shipment-specific variables (e.g. distance, weight and value) and mode-specific variables (e.g. haul time and cost) are found to be determinants. The specifications of the non-selected choice are imputed in a machine learning module. Shipping cost is found to be a central factor for rail shipments, while road shipments are found to be more sensitive to haul time. Sensitivity of mode choice decisions is further analyzed under different fuel price fluctuation scenarios. A low level of mode choice sensitivity is found with respect to fuel price, such that even a 50% increase in fuel cost does not cause a significant modal shift between truck and rail.     

Sensitivity analysis and optimisation of suspension bushing using Taguchi method and grey relational analysis

In this paper, a novel method is presented for investigating suspension bushing based on mechanical properties of the bushing, their effective directions, spring stiffness and damping coefficient of bushing. The vehicle vibration model and suspension geometry parameters are used to optimise the vehicle suspension based on multi-body dynamics simulation (ADAMS/CAR) initially. Several experiment tests based on ISO 4128 and ISO 7401 have been performed in one of main Iranian automaker (SAIPA) in order to verify the ADAMS/CAR model. The grey relational analysis based on using Taguchi L27 orthogonal array is used to obtain the optimum suspension. Then the bushing characteristics are optimised considering the indicated method. This method considers a combination of ride comfort and handling qualities of vehicle as objective functions simultaneously. The results of optimum suspension are compared with typical Renault Logan which declares the accuracy and efficiency of this method in optimising suspension bushing.     

The validity of using activity type to structure tour-based scheduling models

A unique set of activity scheduling data is utilized in this paper to provide much needed empirical analysis of the sequence in which activities are planned in everyday life. This is used to assess the validity of the assumption that activities are planned in accordance to a fixed hierarchy of activity types: mandatory activities first (work/school), followed by joint maintenance, joint discretionary, allocated maintenance, and individual discretionary activities. Such an assumption is typical of current generation activity and tour-based travel demand models. However, the empirical results clearly do not support such assumptions. For instance, fewer than 50% of mandatory activities were actually planned first in related out-of-home tours; remaining activity types also did not take any particular precedence in the planning sequence. Given this, a search was made for the more salient attributes of activities (beyond activity type) that would better predict how they are planned within tours. Several ordered response choice models for different tour sizes were developed for this purpose, predicting the choice order of the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, etc. planned activity in the tour as a function of activity type, activity characteristics (duration, frequency, travel time, and involved persons), and individual characteristics. Activity duration played the most significant role in the models compared to any other single variable, wherein longer duration activities tended to be planned much earlier in tours. This strongly suggests that the amount of time-use, rather than the nature of the event as indicated by activity type, is a primary driver of within-tour planning order and offers potential for a much improved and valid fit.