Reliability assessment of maintained ship hulls with correlated corroded elements

This paper reviews the factors that affect the corrosion rate of the ship hull girder. It is shown that corrosion rates vary as a function of the location of the element in the structure, of the ocean area and type of ballast tank and steel. However, the corrosion rate in elements that are subjected to similar conditions is highly correlated.

A time-variant formulation is proposed including the correlation between the corrosion rates in neighbouring elements in modelling the degrading effect that corrosion has on the reliability of ship hulls. The effect of corrosion is represented as a time-dependent decrease of plate thickness that affects the midship section modulus. One repair policy was considered and the example results show the effect of plate replacement when its thickness reaches 75% of the original value. The results also illustrate how the limit value of the thickness in the repair criteria influences the reliability and the decision about repair actions. This is also shown for the effect of different corrosion rates, inspection intervals, and allowable stresses.     

A Simplified Model for the Effect of Weld-Induced Residual Stresses on the Axial Ultimate Strength of Stiffened Plates

The present work investigates the compressive axial ultimate strength of fillet-welded steel-plated ship structures subjected to uniaxial compression, in which the residual stresses in the welded plates are calculated by a thermo-elasto-plastic finite element analysis that is used to fit an idealized model of residual stress distribution. The numerical results of ultimate strength based on the simplified model of residual stress show good agreement with those of various methods including the International Association of Classification Societies (IACS) Common Structural Rules (CSR), leading to the conclusion that the simplified model can be effectively used to represent the distribution of residual stresses in steel-plated structures in a wide range of engineering applications. It is concluded that the widths of the tension zones in the welded plates have a quasi-linear behavior with respect to the plate slenderness. The effect of residual stress on the axial strength of the stiffened plate is analyzed and discussed.     

Value of travel time reliability: A review of current evidence

Travel time reliability is a fundamental factor in travel behavior. It represents the temporal uncertainty experienced by travelers in their movement between any two nodes in a network. The importance of the time reliability depends on the penalties incurred by the travelers. In road networks, travelers consider the existence of a trip travel time uncertainty in different choice situations (departure time, route, mode, and others). In this paper, a systematic review of the current state of research in travel time reliability, and more explicitly in the value of travel time reliability is presented. Moreover, a meta-analysis is performed in order to determine the reasons behind the discrepancy among the reliability estimates.     

CFD Analysis of Ship-to-Ship Hydrodynamic Interaction

A numerical study of ship-to-ship interaction forces is performed using a commercial CFD code, and the results are compared with experimental data and with the results of a panel method analysis. Two ship models have been used in the interaction forces analysis: a tug and a tanker, advancing parallel to each other with different lateral distances and two different values of the fluid depth. Computations are carried out with four different flow models: inviscid and viscous flow with the free surface modeled as a rigid wall and inviscid and viscous flow with the deformable free surface. A fair agreement was obtained with available experimental data and results obtained by panel method. The influence of viscosity in the computations is found to be comparatively weak, while the wavemaking effects may be important, at small magnitude of the horizontal clearance.     

Estimating the value of risk reductions for car drivers when pedestrians are involved: a case study in Spain

We estimated the benefits associated with reducing fatal and severe injuries from traffic accidents using a stated choice experiment where choice situations were generated through a statistically efficient design. Specifically, the risk variables were defined as the expected annual number of vehicle car-users that suffered their death or were severely injured in a traffic accident. In addition, and differing from previous research, the number of pedestrians that died or were severely injured in traffic accidents per year was also included as a risk attribute in the choice experiment, to attempt at measuring drivers’ willingness to pay to reduce the risk of hitting pedestrians in a crash. The empirical setting was a choice of route for a particular trip that a sample of car drivers periodically undertakes in Tenerife, Spain. Models were estimated accounting for random taste heterogeneity and pseudo-panel data correlation. The median of the distribution of simulated parameters was used to obtain a representative measure for the monetary valuation of risk reductions. We found that the ratio between the values of reducing the risk of suffering a serious injury and that of reducing a fatality was approximately 18 %. Further, and quite novel, we also found that the value of reducing a pedestrian fatality was 39 % of the value of reducing a car occupant fatality.     

Rapid first-stage tests of on-ship infection

Protection against on-ship infectious disease—whether due to mishap or to harmful purpose—faces special situational problems. Sometimes, when infection levels on board have reached threshold levels, emergency actions are required. Often, the most thorough strategies for responding to threat are not feasible. A rapid first-stage test (RFT) is a fast, minimally invasive procedure used to rule out from possible infection a large percentage of an infection-threatened group. Prevention and control of on-ship infection need to combine various interconnected tactics. When timely criterion tests are not possible, the medical team must adopt fast alternative measures. The methods used to summarize protection against on-ship infectious agents included a scientific literature review and a web search. The fields of the review were maritime, health, and technology sources. Special attention was paid to material dealing with risks and threats of on-ship penetration by infectious agents, on-ship infection prevalence thresholds, and rapid diagnostic screens. The Bayes rule and the law of large numbers were applied to the analysis, for large on-ship populations, of RFT indications of crossing of an infection prevalence threshold. The increasing risk of serious on-ship infection—either accidental or purposeful—calls for a multi-layered protection approach. RFTs are a key part of the outer layer of such a defense. Well-designed and well-administered RFTs provide several advantages for defense against on-ship infection: low-cost, non-invasive, fast, and focuses on a drastically smaller number of infection possibilities.     

Network representation,continuum approximations and a solution to the spatial aggregation problem of traffic assignment

This paper complements the preceding one, which showed how one could modify equilibrium traffic assignment algorithms for networks with many centroids. In this one it is shown how one can substitute centroids by zones with continuous population densities. The technique, which is mathematically guaranteed to approximate a flow pattern in accordance with Wardrop's user equilibrium criterion, requires some geometrical calculations which can be handled off-line. With the suggested approach, it is possible to represent the spatial distribution of trip ends more realistically and this allows traffic assignment models to capture the effects of short and intrazonal trips in a way previously impossible. The method is shown to be computationally feasible.     

Surface patterns of zooplankton spatial variability detected by high frequency sampling in the NW Mediterranean. Role of density fronts

High frequency sampling was performed in daylight hours along a 35 km transect in the Ligurian Sea to investigate the upper layer zooplankton distribution during the spring phytoplankton bloom. The results show detailed spatial structure and biomass of key zooplankton functional groups, copepods, salps and krill larvae, within the different water masses characterizing this region. Although observed values of total copepod biomass distribution were rather constant along the transect, species-specific patterns were observed in the copepod spatial distribution. The larger species Calanus helgolandicus, as well as Centropages typicus, Oithona spp., and Oncaea spp., were associated with the frontal zone. However, Acartia spp. had a scattered distribution, and Clausocalanus/Paracalanus did not have a clear pattern. In addition, krill larvae were concentrated in the frontal area and salps had a scattered pattern. The cross-shore zooplankton distribution appeared strongly influenced by both the Northern Ligurian current governing inshore waters, which acts as a major flushing forcing, and the Ligurian front, which governs offshore waters and may act as retention area for zooplankton.     

Tests on ultimate strength of hull box girders made of high tensile steel

The experimental results of the collapse of three box girders subjected to pure bending moment are presented. The structures are made of high tensile steel of 690 MPa of nominal yield stress reinforced with bar stiffeners of the same material. The moment curvature curves are presented covering the pre- and post-collapse regions. The modes of collapse for each box girder are discussed considering the variation on the panel's slenderness. The concept of efficiency of high tensile steel structures is introduced. The concept is very useful to identify the governing parameters affecting the ultimate strength of 3D structures under predominant bending moment.