Designing computable general equilibrium models for transportation applications

This paper presents a review of Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model applications for spatial economic and transport interaction modelling. This paper has three objectives (1) To deliver an up to date and comprehensive literature review on applications of CGE models in transportation, (2) To analyze the different methodological approaches and their theoretical and practical advantages and disadvantages, and (3) To ultimately provide guidance on designing CGE models for various transportation analyses. The content of the paper is as follows: first, a brief introduction to CGE models is provided. The history of CGE models is traced, ranging from their origins and seminal applications in economics, to their eventual adoption in transportation research. This is followed by a comprehensive review of the application of CGE models to transport projects and policies. Various applications in transportation are reviewed in terms of their intended application, as well as their treatment of space and time. Finally, these applications are contrasted with respect to their methodological approaches, with a close examination of various influential model choices. Here, the essential design choices made within these model applications are explained and debated, to clearly elaborate on the workings of the models and the design choices facing CGE model developers.     

Strategic trade-off between vessel delay and schedule recovery: an empirical analysis of container liner shipping

In this paper, we empirically test the relationship between the delay of containerships and the scheduled operations in a terminal, based on a dataset containing information on 352 containership arrivals during a 9-month period at seven terminals of three North American ports. We find that a vessel is less likely to be delayed when there are more operations scheduled shortly (up to 3 days) after the vessel’s berthing window in the terminal. Moreover, we also find that the more containers a vessel needs to unload in the terminal, the less likely that it would be delayed. Both findings support the hypothesis that liners strategically balance the trade-off between delay cost and schedule recovery cost.     

Investigating scalability in population synthesis: a comparative approach

In this paper, we investigate the influence of scalability on the accuracy of different synthetic populations using both fitting and generation-based approaches. Most activity-based models need a base-year synthetic population of agents with various attributes. However, when several attributes need to be synthesized, the accuracy of the synthetic population may decrease due to the mixed effects of scalability and dimensionality. We analyze two population synthesis methods for different levels of scalability, i.e. two to five attributes and different sample sizes – 10%, 25% and 50%. Results reveal that the simulation-based approach is more stable than Iterative Proportional Fitting (IPF) when the number of attributes increases. However, IPF is less sensitive to changes in sample size when compared to the simulation-based approach. We also demonstrate the importance of choosing the appropriate metric to validate the synthetic populations as the trends in terms of RMSE/MAE are different from those of SRMSE.     

Determining the Scour Dimensions Around Submerged Vanes in a 180° Bend with the Gene Expression Programming Technique

Submerged vanes are installed on rivers and channel beds to protect the outer bank bends from scouring. Also, local scouring occurs around the submerged vanes over time, and identifying the effective factors on the scouring phenomena around these submerged vanes is one of the important issues in river engineering. The most important aim of this study is investigation of scour pattern around submerged vanes located in 180° bend experimentally and numerically. Firstly, the effects of various parameters such as the Froude number (Fr), angle of submerged vanes to the flow (α), angle of submerged vane location in the bend (θ), distance between submerged vanes (d), height (H), and length (L) of the vanes on the dimensionless volume of the scour hole were experimentally studied. The submerged vanes were installed on a 180° bend whose central radius and channel width were 2.8 and 0.6 m, respectively. By reducing the Froude number, the scour hole volume decreased. For all Froude numbers, the biggest scour hole formed at θ?=?15°. In all models, by increasing the Froude number, the scour hole volume significantly increases. In addition, by increasing the submerged vanes’ length and height, the scour hole dimensions also grow. Secondly, using gene expression programming (GEP), a relationship for determining the scour hole volume around the submerged vanes was provided. For this model, the determination coefficients (R²) for the training and test modes were computed as 0.91 and 0.9, respectively. In addition, this study performed partial derivative sensitivity analysis (PDSA). According to the results, the PDSA was calculated as positive for all input variables.     

Optimization of bottom-hinged flap-type wave energy converter for a specific wave rose

In this paper, we conducted a numerical analysis on the bottom-hinged flap-type Wave Energy Convertor (WEC). The basic model, implemented through the study using ANSYS-AQWA, has been validated by a three-dimensional physical model of a pitching vertical cylinder. Then, a systematic parametric assessment has been performed on stiffness, damping, and WEC direction against an incoming wave rose, resulting in an optimized flap-type WEC for a specific spot in the Persian Gulf. Here, stiffness is tuned to have a near-resonance condition considering the wave rose, while damping is modified to capture the highest energy for each device direction. Moreover, such sets of specifications have been checked at different directions to present the best combination of stiffness, damping, and device heading. It has been shown that for a real condition, including different wave heights, periods, and directions, it is very important to implement the methodology introduced here to guarantee device performance.     

基因表达编程技术的180度弯曲浸没导向板附近腐蚀范围确定研究（英文）

Submerged vanes are installed on rivers and channel beds to protect the outer bank bends from scouring. Also, local scouring occurs around the submerged vanes over time, and identifying the effective factors on the scouring phenomena around these submerged vanes is one of the important issues in river engineering. The most important aim of this study is investigation of scour pattern around submerged vanes located in 180° bend experimentally and numerically. Firstly, the effects of various parameters such as the Froude number(Fr), angle of submerged vanes to the flow(α), angle of submerged vane location in the bend(θ),distance between submerged vanes(d), height(H), and length(L) of the vanes on the dimensionless volume of the scour hole were experimentally studied. The submerged vanes were installed on a 180° bend whose central radius and channel width were 2.8 and 0.6 m, respectively. By reducing the Froude number, the scour hole volume decreased. For all Froude numbers, the biggest scour hole formed at θ = 15°. In all models, by increasing the Froude number, the scour hole volume significantly increases. In addition, by increasing the submerged vanes' length and height, the scour hole dimensions also grow. Secondly,using gene expression programming(GEP), a relationship for determining the scour hole volume around the submerged vanes was provided. For this model, the determination coefficients(R~2) for the training and test modes were computed as 0.91 and 0.9,respectively. In addition, this study performed partial derivative sensitivity analysis(PDSA). According to the results, the PDSA was calculated as positive for all input variables.     

Marine molluscs as biomonitors for heavy metal levels in the Gulf of Suez, Red Sea

Levels of the heavy metals Copper (Cu), Zinc (Zn), Lead (Pb), Cadmium (Cd), Chromium (Cr), Nickel (Ni), Iron (Fe) and Manganese (Mn) were determined in coastal water, sediments and soft tissues of the gastropod limpet, Patella caerulea, and the bivalve, Barbatus barbatus, from seven different stations in the western coast of the Gulf of Suez. The concentrations of heavy metals in water ranged between 3.37–4.78, 18.83–21.46, 2.75–3.17, 0.22–0.27, 0.99–1.21, 2.69–3.65, 3.75–4.56 μg L^− 1 and 23.82–32.78 mg g^− 1 for Cu, Zn, Pb, Cd, Cr, Ni, Mn and Fe, respectively. The corresponding concentration values in the sediments were 8.65–12.16, 51.78–58.06, 36.52–42.15, 3.23–3.98, 9.03–12.75, 34.31–49.63, 3.28–4.56 and 64.20–70.22 μg g^− 1 for Cu, Zn, Pb, Cd, Cr, Ni, Mn and Fe, respectively. The highest accumulated metals were Fe, Zn and Mn in both P. caerulea and B. barbatus, while the lowest one was Cd. The accumulation of metals was more pronounced in P. caerulea than B. barbatus. The highest concentrations of all metals in water, sediments and mollusca were recorded at Adabiya harbour north of the Gulf, while the lowest concentrations were recorded at Gabal El-Zeit and Hurghada. Land based activities and ships awaiting berth are the main source of metal pollution in the northern part of the Gulf.     

Estimating intersection O-D matrices from observed time-series of traffic counts: The zellner estimator

The problem of estimating intersection O-D matrices from input and output time-series of traffic counts is considered in this paper. Because of possible existence of significant correlation between the error terms across structural equations forming the O-D matrices, the seemingly unrelated estimator (Zellner estimator) was suggested. Estimation results showed evidence of strong correlation between error terms across-equations. Generally, the Zellner estimator produced more efficient estimates than did the ordinary least-squares estimator. Furthermore, the Zellner estimator satisfied all constraints and reproduced turning movements comparable to the actual ones.     

Interactions between driver information,route choice,and optimal signal timing on a simple network

The interaction between driver information, route choice, and optimal traffic signal settings was investigated using a simple two-route system with a single “T” intersection and a fixed O-D demand. The logit model and the method of successive averages (MSA) were used to calculate the route choice probabilities and the stochastic equilibrium assignment. Given an assignment, signal settings which minimized average intersection delay were calculated; flow reassignment and new optimal signal settings were then obtained and this iterative process continued until convergence. The calculations were performed either directly in a combined assignment/signal optimization model or in stages using the output flows of an assignment model as inputs to TRANSYT-7F and iterating between the two models. Results show that a unique joint signal timing/assignment equilibrium is reached in all cases provided that a certain precision in drivers' perceptions is not reached. If driver information increases to this precision (bifurcation point) and beyond, results show clearly that the unique joint signal timing/assignment equilibrium no longer exists. In fact, three joint equilibria points exist after the bifurcation point. Two of these points are stable and one is not. It was found that the system yields the lowest total intersection delay when the joint equilibrium is such that all traffic and hence the major part of green time is assigned to only one of the two routes. Although this may not be feasible to implement in practice, the results indicate clearly for this simple example that there is a trade-off between a system with minimum total delay but no unique joint signal-settings/assignment equilibrium (achieved when drivers have nearly perfect information about the system) and a system with a unique joint equilibrium but with higher total delay (achieved when drivers have reasonably good but somewhat limited information). In most cases the second system seems appropriate for a number of practical reasons.