Spatiotemporal traffic forecasting: review and proposed directions

This paper systematically reviews studies that forecast short-term traffic conditions using spatial dependence between links. We extract and synthesise 130 research papers, considering two perspectives: (1) methodological framework and (2) methods for capturing spatial information. Spatial information boosts the accuracy of prediction, particularly in congested traffic regimes and for longer horizons. Machine learning methods, which have attracted more attention in recent years, outperform the naïve statistical methods such as historical average and exponential smoothing. However, there is no guarantee of superiority when machine learning methods are compared with advanced statistical methods such as spatiotemporal autoregressive integrated moving average. As for the spatial dependency detection, a large gulf exists between the realistic spatial dependence of traffic links on a real network and the studied networks as follows: (1) studies capture spatial dependency of either adjacent or distant upstream and downstream links with the study link, (2) the spatially relevant links are selected either by prejudgment or by correlation-coefficient analysis, and (3) studies develop forecasting methods in a corridor test sample, where all links are connected sequentially together, assume a similarity between the behaviour of both parallel and adjacent links, and overlook the competitive nature of traffic links.     

Evaluation of alternative battery technologies for a solar assist plug-in hybrid electric tractor

This paper looks at the various battery technologies available for use in solar assist plug-in hybrid electric tractors In this context, solar assist plug-in hybrid electric tractors are those that may be used in light-duty agricultural operations. To determine the most suitable battery, four common technologies are analyzed looking at the environmental life-cycle effects and costs.     

A stochastic analysis of highway capacity: Empirical evidence and implications

This paper presents a stochastic characterization of highway capacity and explores its implications on ramp metering control at the corridor level. The stochastic variation of highway capacity is captured through a Space–Time Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (STARIMA) model. It is identified following a Seasonal STARIMA model (0, 0, 2₃) × (0, 1, 0)₂, which indicates that the capacities of adjacent locations are spatially–temporally correlated. Hourly capacity patterns further verify the stochastic nature of highway capacity. The goal of this paper is to study (1) how to take advantage of the extra information, such as capacity variation, and (2) what benefits can be gained from stochastic capacity modeling. The implication of stochastic capacity is investigated through a ramp metering case study. A mean–standard deviation formulation of capacity is proposed to achieve the trade-off between traffic operation efficiency and robustness. Following that, a modified stochastic capacity-constraint ZONE ramp metering scheme embedded cell transmission model algorithm is introduced. The numerical experiment suggests that considering capacity variation information would alleviate the spillback effect and improve throughput. Monte Carlo simulation further supports this argument. This study helps verify and characterize the stochastic nature of capacity, validates the benefits of using capacity variation information, and thus enhances the necessity of implementing stochastic capacity in traffic operation.     

Performance analysis of crowd-shipping in urban and suburban areas

Transportation - Crowd logistics is a novel shipping concept where delivery operations are carried out by using existing resources, namely vehicle capacity and drivers from the crowd, thereby...     

A comprehensive study on the stability analysis of vehicle dynamics with pure/combined-slip tyre models

In this paper, a vehicle's lateral dynamic model is developed based on the pure and the combined-slip LuGre tyre models. Conventional vehicle's lateral dynamic methods derive handling models utilising linear tyres and pure-slip assumptions. The current article proposes a general lateral dynamic model, which takes the linear and nonlinear behaviours of the tyre into account using the pure and combined-slip assumptions separately. The developed methodology also incorporates various normal loads at each corner and provides a proper tyre–vehicle platform for control and estimation applications. Steady-state and transient LuGre models are also used in the model development and their responses are compared in different driving scenarios. Considering the fact that the vehicle dynamics is time-varying, the stability of the suggested time-varying model is investigated using an affine quadratic stability approach, and a novel approach to define the critical longitudinal speed is suggested and compared with that of conventional lateral stability methods. Simulations have been conducted and the results are used to validate the proposed method.     

A cluster analysis approach for differentiating transportation modes using Bluetooth sensor data

A variety of automatic data collection technologies have been used to gather road and highway system data. The majority of these automatic data collection technologies are designed to collect vehicle-based data and either do not have the capability to collect other travel mode data (e.g., bicycles and pedestrians), or may need to be deployed differently to support this capability.

One type of wireless-based data collection system that has been deployed recently is based on Bluetooth technology. A key feature of Bluetooth-based data collection systems that makes travel mode identification feasible is that the Bluetooth-enabled devices within vehicles are also present on bicyclists and pedestrians. This research explores the effectiveness of applying cluster analysis methods when processing data collected via Bluetooth technology from vehicles, bicyclists, and pedestrians to automatically identify the associated travel modes. The results of several experiments utilizing multiple Bluetooth-based data collection units arranged linearly and in relatively close proximity on a simulated intersection demonstrate the potential of cluster analysis to accurately differentiate transportation modes from the collected data.     

Mode choice and travel distance joint models in school trips

We test a copula-based joint discrete–continuous model to unravel mode choice and travel distance decisions in a joint framework for school trips. This framework explicitly accounts for common unobserved factors that may affect both the mode choice and travel distance. Joint estimation of the models makes a significant difference in the effect of travel distance on willingness to walk to school. The absolute value of the travel distance coefficient in the mode choice model increases by 22% when a joint formulation is adopted instead of the conventional single estimations. We find a significant decrease of 19% in the coefficient of travel safety perception in the joint mode choice model compared to the single model. This underscores the impact of model specification, in terms of the variable effect interpretation and policy assessments. The effect magnitude of several policy-sensitive variables is discussed and compared with previous studies. Particularly, we indicate that the probability of walking is reduced by 0.85% due to a 1% increase in travel distance; accordingly, it propels parents to select non-active modes, particularly school bus. This study also demonstrates how addressing parental concerns about travel safety could double the propensity to walk to school.     

Travel demand (modal split) estimation by hierarchical measurement

This paper develops a procedure for travel demand estimation via the Saaty method of Analytic Hierarchy. A stratification of the travel demand by trip-making and trip attributes has been represented more inclusively in a hierarchy system. Various elements and dimensions of the hierarchy have been hypothesized as different levels of decisions made by trip-makers. The elements contained in a set of specified matrices of travel attributes have been weighed utilizing a ratio scale, in a process of mapping transportation systems (modal) attributes with the characteristic trip-making behavior in a hierarchical demand structure. The principal output of this procedure is an estimate of the trip distribution by mode, or modal split. The estimate closely approximates the observed modal split pattern for the inter city travel problem simulated. This procedure is proposed for travel demand forecasting and planning.     

Modeling of Double Lane Change Maneuver of Vehicles

Lane change maneuver is one of most riskiest driving tasks. In order to increase the safety level of the vehicles during this maneuver, design of lane change assist systems which are based on dynamics behavior of driver-vehicle unit is necessary. Therefore, modeling of the maneuver is the first step to design the driver assistance system. In this paper, a novel method for modeling of lateral motion of vehicles in the standard double-lane-change (DLC) maneuver is proposed. A neuro-fuzzy model is suggested consisting of both the vehicle orientation and its lateral position. The inputs of the model are the current orientation, lateral position and steering wheel angle, while the predicted lateral position and orientation of the vehicle are the outputs. The efficiency of the proposed method is verified using both simulation results and experimental tests. The simulation and experimental maneuvers are performed in different velocities. It is shown that the proposed method can effectively reduce the undesirable effects of environmental disturbances and is significantly more accurate in comparisons with the results in the recent available papers. This method can be used to personalize the advanced driver assistance systems.     

Estimation of longitudinal speed robust to road conditions for ground vehicles

This article seeks to develop a longitudinal vehicle velocity estimator robust to road conditions by employing a tyre model at each corner. Combining the lumped LuGre tyre model and the vehicle kinematics, the tyres internal deflection state is used to gain an accurate estimation. Conventional kinematic-based velocity estimators use acceleration measurements, without correction with the tyre forces. However, this results in inaccurate velocity estimation because of sensor uncertainties which should be handled with another measurement such as tyre forces that depend on unknown road friction. The new Kalman-based observer in this paper addresses this issue by considering tyre nonlinearities with a minimum number of required tyre parameters and the road condition as uncertainty. Longitudinal forces obtained by the unscented Kalman filter on the wheel dynamics is employed as an observation for the Kalman-based velocity estimator at each corner. The stability of the proposed time-varying estimator is investigated and its performance is examined experimentally in several tests and on different road surface frictions. Road experiments and simulation results show the accuracy and robustness of the proposed approach in estimating longitudinal speed for ground vehicles.