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Standard economic policy evaluation allows the realization of projects if the aggregated economic benefit outweighs their
costs. The use of one single aggregated welfare measure for evaluating and ranking projects has often been criticized for
many reasons. A major issue is that differentiated effects on individuals or subgroups of the population are not taken into
consideration. This leads to the need for transport planning tools that provide additional information for politicians and
decision makers. The microscopic multi-agent simulation approach presented in this paper is capable of helping to design better
solutions in such situations. In particular, it is shown that the inclusion of individual income in utility calculations allows
a better understanding of problems linked to public acceptance. First, individual income-contingent utility functions are
estimated based on survey data in order to describe human mobility behavior. Subsequently, using the MATSim framework, the
implementation is tested in a test scenario. Furthermore, and going beyond Franklin (2006), it is shown that the approach works in a large-scale real world example. Based on a hypothetical speed increase of public
transit, effects on the welfare distribution of the population are discussed. It is shown that the identification of winners
and losers seems to be quite robust. However, results indicate that a conversion or aggregation of individual utility changes
for welfare analysis is highly dependent on the functional form of the utility functions as well as on the choice of the aggregation
procedure. 相似文献
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The representation and implementation of time-dependent inundation in large-scale microscopic evacuation simulations 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Gregor Lmmel Dominik Grether Kai Nagel 《Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies》2010,18(1):84-98
Multi-agent simulation has increasingly been used for transportation simulation in recent years. With current techniques, it is possible to simulate systems consisting of several million agents. Such multi-agent simulations have been applied to whole cities and even large regions. In this paper it is demonstrated how to adapt an existing multi-agent transportation simulation framework to large-scale pedestrian evacuation simulation. The underlying flow model simulates the traffic-based on a simple queue model where only free speed, bottleneck capacities, and space constraints are taken into account. The queue simulation, albeit simple, captures the most important aspects of evacuations such as the congestion effects of bottlenecks and the time needed to evacuate the endangered area. In the case of an evacuation simulation the network has time-dependent attributes. For instance, large-scale inundations or conflagrations do not cover all the endangered area at once.These time-dependent attributes are modeled as network change events. Network change events are modifying link parameters at predefined points in time. The simulation framework is demonstrated through a case study for the Indonesian city of Padang, which faces a high risk of being inundated by a tsunami. 相似文献
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