Analysis of factors that may be essential in the decision to fly on fully autonomous passenger airliners

This research investigates factors that influence opinion in the decision to fly on fully autonomous passenger airliners primarily from the perspective of aviation and technology professionals. Bayesian statistical inference and a two‐level fractional factorial survey are used to sample passengers' views on fully autonomous airliners. Eight trust, safety, and cost factors are incorporated into a vignette set in the future. Factors include automation levels, safety records, liability guarantees, airline integrity, and service disruptions. Dependent variables exist in five post‐vignette questions and essentially ask “Would you” or “Would you not” be willing to fly on a fully autonomous airliner? Sixteen versions of the vignette, each with unique trust, safety, and cost levels, present varying (unknown) degrees of influence to the survey respondents. For every demographic, the research shows a 99% statistically significant difference between the “prior” and “posterior” sampled population proportions willing to fly. The most significant positive influence involves integrity characteristics of the airline, while the most negative influence relates to life insurance liability guarantees. Research from 2003 suggested that this mode of travel would be acceptable to only 10.5% of respondents. When the 2003 research is used as a Bayesian prior probability, the resulting posterior probability for the demographics sampled can be modeled as a beta distribution, indicating 95% probability that the sampled proportion of the population willing to fly is between 33.2% and 36.4%. After adjusting for age and profession demographics to match the US population, the 95% probability bounds on the proportion willing to fly are 31.35% and 34.15%. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Contracting in highway maintenance and rehabilitation: Are spatial effects important?

Highway agencies around the world strive to improve practices for infrastructure maintenance and rehabilitation, using project delivery policies that range from total ‘in-house’ responsibility to complete privatization, with a number of flexible contracting policies such as performance-based contracting, variants of design-build-maintain, and lane rentals among others between these two extremes. In this paper, we present a methodology that duly accounts for underlying spatial effects and estimates the expected cost savings of innovative contracting policies for highway maintenance and rehabilitation relative to in-house execution of these activities. Spatial econometric modeling is used to analyze highway contract data from 49 countries. We also investigate the marginal effects of key explanatory variables on contract cost savings using spatial multipliers. Our findings show that there are significant relationships between cost savings and contract characteristics, and that there is an apparent direct relationship between the average cost savings of contracts in a country and contract average cost savings and contract sizes in neighboring countries.     

刺桐基督教与摩尼教遗迹概述

刺桐(泉州)是中世纪各大宗教之家,有着丰富的宗教遗存,其中以石刻为多,引起中外学者的浓厚兴趣。澳大利亚研究团多次造访泉州,对泉州的宗教石刻(主要是基督教石刻)进行详尽的考证。研究团成员刘南强教授首先对泉州宗教石刻存在的历史背景和收藏保护情况做了简要概述,重点介绍访问的成果主要是碑文的解读与译释情况。     

城市交通一体化走廊管理的理念与实践

为解决城市交通量快速增长与土地、交通资源之间的突出矛盾,提高交通系统的效益与效率,有必要针对城市重要交通走廊实施一体化走廊管理。首先,对一体化走廊管理的基本概念进行阐释,指出其对于中国城市交通发展的适用性。然后,提出一体化走廊管理的方法,并分别以发达国家城市伦敦、纽约以及发展中国家城市武汉为例,对一体化走廊管理的应用进行了实证分析。最后,总结实践的经验与教训,指出城市领导者的支持、直接利益关系者间协调机制的建立、与交通使用者的双向沟通,以及方案编制的因地制宜有助于一体化走廊管理的规划与实施。     

Uncertainty analysis of the large zone economic module of the simple,efficient, elegant,and effective model (SE3M) of land use and transportation

Integrated land use and transportation forecasting models are used to assist decision-makers in the policy analysis and infrastructure capital improvement selection process. These models are typically given precise, point-estimate inputs that are mathematically linked, through a series of submodels, to forecasted model outputs. These point-estimate inputs represent an unrealistic level of precision and a growing body of research is focusing on statistical techniques to model uncertainty in model inputs and parameters and tracking the effects of this uncertainty through the various submodels to the model outputs. This paper presents an uncertainty analysis of the Large Zone Economic Module (LZEM) of the Simple, Efficient, Elegant, and Effective Model (SE³M) of land use and transportation. Three case-study implementations of the model are used to obtain a reasonably sound approximation of how uncertainty affects LZEM outputs: Guam, Puerto Rico, and Oahu, Hawaii. These case studies were the subject of an early transferability study with SE³M and were selected based on both their insularity and diverse physical, economic, and demographic geographies. The findings of this research demonstrate that LZEM has a robust framework, with the potential to estimate error both in the positive and negative direction under uncertain input/parameter conditions.     

Sensitivity of the wheel–rail contact interactions and Dang Van Fatigue Index in the rail with respect to irregularities of the track geometry

This paper investigates the effects of the track geometry irregularities on the wheel–rail dynamic interactions and the rail fatigue initiation through the application of the Dang Van criterion, that supposes an elastic shakedown of the structure. The irregularities are modelled, using experimental data, as a stochastic field which is representative of the considered railway network. The tracks thus generated are introduced as the input of a railway dynamics software to characterise the stochastic contact patch and the parameters on which it depends: contact forces and wheelset–rail relative position. A variance-based global sensitivity analysis is performed on quantities of interest representative of the dynamic behaviour of the system, with respect to the stochastic geometry irregularities and for different curve radius classes and operating conditions. The estimation of the internal stresses and the fatigue index being more time-consuming than the dynamical simulations, the sensitivity analysis is performed through a metamodel, whose input parameters are the wheel–rail relative position and velocity. The coefficient of variation of the number of fatigue cycles, when the simulations are performed with random geometry irregularities, varies between 0.13 and 0.28. In a large radius curve, the most influent irregularity is the horizontal curvature, while, in a tight curve, the gauge becomes more important.     

The role of VMT reduction in meeting climate change policy goals

This article evaluates the case for vehicle miles traveled (VMT) reduction as a core policy goal for reducing greenhouse gases (GHGs), concluding the economic impacts and social consequences would be too severe given the modest potential environmental benefits. Attempts to reduce VMT typically rely on very blunt policy instruments, such as increasing urban densities, and run the risk of reducing mobility, reducing access to jobs, and narrowing the range of housing choice. VMT reduction, in fact, is an inherently blunt policy instrument because it relies almost exclusively on changing human behavior and settlement patterns to increase transit use and reduce automobile travel rather than directly target GHGs. It also uses long-term strategies with highly uncertain effects on GHGs based on current research. Not surprisingly, VMT reduction strategies often rank among the most costly and least efficient options. In contrast, less intrusive policy approaches such as improved fuel efficiency and traffic signal optimization are more likely to directly reduce GHGs than behavioral approaches such as increasing urban densities to promote higher public transit usage. As a general principle, policymakers should begin addressing policy concerns using the least intrusive and costly approaches first. Climate change policy should focus on directly targeting greenhouse gas emissions (e.g., through a carbon tax) rather than using the blunt instrument of VMT reduction to preserve the economic and social benefits of mobility in modern, service-based economies. Targeted responses are also more cost effective, implying that the social welfare costs of climate change policy will be smaller than using broad-brushed approaches that directly attempt to influence living patterns and travel behavior.     

Transportation survey and rideshare matching model for rural communities

A simple and flexible low technology rideshare matching model was developed for a rural area. A brief survey form provided information on distance to work, fuel consumption and currently used transportation mode in conj unction with information on employment location and work schedule. The model developed used a computerized system for proximity matching of potential ride sharers. An existing computer program with detailed modifications was used for data analysis. Unlike other rideshare matching programs, this model relies on grouping by community names to match riders.     

Scaling up cycling or replacing driving? Triggers and trajectories of bike–train uptake in the Randstad area

Transportation - The combined use of the bicycle and the train in the Netherlands has risen steadily over the past decade. However, little is yet known about the underlying processes driving the...     

Tanker cost elasticities revisited

This paper re-examines the literature on ship economies of scale, and presents the results of re-estimating a model of tanker costs for 2007. The results are interesting for two reasons. First, they are remarkably similar to those estimated for tankers in the 1960s and 1970s, despite the transformations in the tanker market since that time. Second, the results imply that tanker size is not driven by scale economies, but by factors that relate to demand and other considerations. This paper concludes by noting some limitations in the approach used in the study.