基于案例推理的交通基础设施PPP项目再谈判触发点识别研究

为了减少再谈判的发生，降低管理成本，提高效率，提出基于案例推理的再谈判触发点识别模型。首先，运用粗糙集理论对初始案例特征属性进行约简，并综合使用熵权法和层次分析法对各案例特征属性权重进行优化； 然后，通过案例总体相似度检索与拟建PPP项目相似的源案例，识别出拟建项目最有可能发生的再谈判触发点； 最后，以深圳梧桐山隧道PPP项目为例，验证模型的合理性与有效性，同时，提出相应的事前预防措施。     

Renegotiating PPP Contracts: Reinforcing the ‘P' in Partnership

Abstract

The issue of renegotiation is becoming increasingly important as a tool to address uncertainty of public private partnership (PPP) projects and as a mechanism to restore its economic and financial equilibrium. This paper aims to understand how and why renegotiations occur in long-lasting PPP projects and what are the pros and cons of the renegotiation. We depart from a literature review on contract incompleteness and on the determinant factors for the renegotiation of infrastructure concessions. To illustrate the discussion, the case studies of nine European PPP projects are analysed by examining the specific exogenous and endogenous determinant factors that conduce to renegotiating contracts. The implications of contractual renegotiations are explained and summarized through a comparison of our case studies with literature. Although renegotiation, per se, is not a solution for the successful implementation of PPP projects, our findings reinforce the idea of contractual flexibility as a tool that allows adapting to uncertainty. Moreover, effective communication mechanisms allow a better response to unforeseen events, reinforcing the partners’ commitment to deliver a win–win project.