驾驶员统计特性对人—车闭环系统响应的影响与汽车主动安全性评价

基于预瞄跟随理论，本文应用一般随机摄动法，对考虑驾驶员不确定性的人－车闭环系统进行响应分析，结合实例，说明该方法在汽车主动安全性评价中的应用。     

A stochastic model of traffic flow: Theoretical foundations

In a variety of applications of traffic flow, including traffic simulation, real-time estimation and prediction, one requires a probabilistic model of traffic flow. The usual approach to constructing such models involves the addition of random noise terms to deterministic equations, which could lead to negative traffic densities and mean dynamics that are inconsistent with the original deterministic dynamics. This paper offers a new stochastic model of traffic flow that addresses these issues. The source of randomness in the proposed model is the uncertainty inherent in driver gap choice, which is represented by random state dependent vehicle time headways. A wide range of time headway distributions is allowed. From the random time headways, counting processes are defined, which represent cumulative flows across cell boundaries in a discrete space and continuous time conservation framework. We show that our construction implicitly ensures non-negativity of traffic densities and that the fluid limit of the stochastic model is consistent with cell transmission model (CTM) based deterministic dynamics.     

Determination of limiting cavity depths for offshore spudcan foundations in a spatially varying seabed

The importance of accurate prediction of limiting cavity depths during offshore spudcan foundations installation has been variously highlighted in the literature. Nonetheless, most of the previous research is deterministic in nature and confined to homogenous soils. Since offshore clayey soils can be highly spatially variable, there is a practical need to take proper account of the spatial variability in the prediction of limiting cavity depths. In a bid to remedy this situation, large deformation finite element calculations combined with three-dimensional random fields were repeatedly conducted in this study within a Monte-Carlo framework. The continuous penetration of a spudcan initiated from surface was explicitly modeled until a full-localized flow-around mechanism was observed. Spatial variability was found to clearly affect the soil back-flow and thereby the limiting cavity depth, the latter of which takes a range of values that can be approximately modeled as a log-normal distribution. Characteristic limiting cavity depths at various probability levels were ascertained. An algebraic expression was proposed to explicitly predict the characteristic limiting cavity depths in random soils from the fractile. Particular attention was paid to the lower and upper 5% characteristic values, which are likely to be useful for reliability-based design.     

Determinants of full and partial household evacuation decision making in hurricane matthew

This paper adds partial household evacuation to the traditional binary evacuate/stay decision. Based on data from a survey of Jacksonville, FL residents after Hurricane Matthew, multinomial (MNL) and random parameter MNL models were developed to determine the influential factors and whether some variables’ effects are more nuanced than prior literature suggests. The random parameter model was preferred to the fixed parameters model. Variables significant in this model included injury concern, certainty about hurricane impact location, age, marital status, family cohesion, and living in mobile or detached homes. Greater injury concern results in lower likelihood of none of the household evacuating and greater likelihood of partial evacuation, but lower likelihood of full household evacuation. Similarly, greater certainty about hurricane impact increased the probability of partial household evacuation but decreased the probability of full evacuation. Respondent age had heterogenous effects; for 85.54% of respondents, additional years of age increased the likelihood of the household staying. Married households had a higher likelihood of staying or evacuating together. Similarly, greater family cohesion was associated with the household remaining together. Living in mobile homes decreased the likelihood that all of the household stays or evacuates and increased the probability of partial household evacuation. Living in a single-family detached home was associated with lower likelihood of all of the household staying or evacuating and a greater likelihood of a partial household evacuation. These findings can inform strategies that influence full or partial household evacuations, material requirements based on these decisions, and ways to reduce family risk.     

随机风浪下的游艇稳性可靠度计算

建立游艇横摇运动微分方程,利用马尔科夫过程理论和路径积分法进行求解,得到游艇横摇角概率密度函数。借鉴结构可靠性计算方法建立游艇稳性概率计算模型,采用当量正态化法(JC法)求解得到游艇稳性可靠度。实例计算表明:游艇在不同海域下的稳性可靠度存在一定差异,随着外界风浪增大,游艇稳性可靠度呈逐步下降趋势,且都存在一个快速下降的波高区间。该方法能够更科学地评判游艇在不同航行条件下的稳性状况,是游艇稳性横准研究的发展方向之一。     

Real-time trip purpose prediction using online location-based search and discovery services

The use of smartphone technology is increasingly considered a state-of-the-art practice in travel data collection. Researchers have investigated various methods to automatically predict trip characteristics based upon locational and other smartphone sensing data. Of the trip characteristics being studied, trip purpose prediction has received relatively less attention. This research develops trip purpose prediction models based upon online location-based search and discovery services (specifically, Google Places API) and a limited set of trip data that are usually available upon the completion of the trip. The models have the potential to be integrated with smartphone technology to produce real-time trip purpose prediction. We use a recent, large-scale travel behavior survey that is augmented by downloaded Google Places information on each trip destination to develop and validate the models. Two statistical and machine learning prediction approaches are used, including nested logit and random forest methods. Both sets of models show that Google Places information is a useful predictor of trip purpose in situations where activity- and person-related information is uncollectable, missing, or unreliable. Even when activity- and person-related information is available, incorporating Google Places information provides incremental improvements in trip purpose prediction.     

VMT, energy consumption, and GHG emissions forecasting for passenger transportation

Globalization, greenhouse gas emissions and energy concerns, emerging vehicle technologies, and improved statistical modeling capabilities make the present moment an opportune time to revisit aggregate vehicle miles traveled (VMT), energy consumption, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions forecasting for passenger transportation. Using panel data for the 48 continental states during the period 1998-2008, the authors develop simultaneous equation models for predicting VMT on different road functional classes and examine how different technological solutions and changes in fuel prices can affect passenger VMT. Moreover, a random coefficient panel data model is developed to estimate the influence of various factors (such as demographics, socioeconomic variables, fuel tax, and capacity) on the total amount of passenger VMT in the United States. To assess the influence of each significant factor on VMT, elasticities are estimated. Further, the authors investigate the effect of different policies governing fuel tax and population density on future energy consumption and GHG emissions. The presented methodology and estimation results can assist transportation planners and policy-makers in determining future energy and transportation infrastructure investment needs.     

对加速随机疲劳试验方法的研究

本文结合基于局部应力－应变法疲劳寿命估算提出一种在“相对”意义上对野外实测应变信号进行删“小量”（即对疲劳影响不大的小信号分量）处理，获得用于室内随机疲劳试验的浓缩信号的方法，其中以损伤滞回环为删除单元，以相对疲劳损伤比为删除的门槛值。     

随机不平路面上的汽车强化试验研究

本文讨论了由载荷功率谱估算强化系数的方法,还研究了路面平整度、路面铺装和行驶车速等试验条件因素对汽车强化试验的影响,发现只有试验车速与实际使用常用车速接近,才能保证汽车构件上的载荷功率谱与实际使用相似。     

船用光纤陀螺随机漂移分析与研究

随机漂移是影响船用光纤陀螺精度的主要因素。对随机漂移进行建模并在系统中加以补偿是提高船用光纤陀螺及其导航系统精度的关键。本文对可用于精密仪器随机漂移研究的Allan方差法加以改进,将数字信号处理中加窗函数的方法应用于计算Allan方差,解决了某些频段内由于频混造成的随机漂移表征不唯一的问题。通过对光纤陀螺实测数据进行计算,得出各种随机漂移的系数,实验证明这是对光纤陀螺随机漂移进行研究的有效方法。