Vulnerability of Coastal Resort Cities to Mean Sea Level Rise in the Mexican Caribbean

We evaluated the potential economic impacts of increasing sea level rise (SLR) along the Mexican Caribbean where there are major gaps in our understanding of the mechanisms controlling flooding duration and frequency associated to future ecological and economic impacts. We determined the negative economic impact of SLR on infrastructure in the largest urban centers (Cancun, Isla Mujeres, Playa del Carmen, Puerto Morelos and Cozumel) in the state of Quintana Roo (Mexico) that are considered the largest tourism “hot spots” (resort cities) in the country. The tourism industry in this coastal area injects >8 billion dollars year^?1 to the Mexican economy. Our conservative economic assessment regarding the impact of SLR, under a 1?m scenario for all coastal cities is $330 million USD. Further projections for worst scenarios (SLR >2 m) show a non-linear trend where the cost of inaction can reach up to $1.4 billion USD (2?m SLR scenario) and $2.3 billion USD (3?m SLR scenario). This potential loss of infrastructure, as construction cost, is staggering and represents a robust baseline to start evaluating with more detail future impacts of climate variability and change on the Mexican Caribbean coastline.     

Air–sea CO2 fluxes in the Caribbean Sea from 2002–2004

Air–sea fluxes in the Caribbean Sea are presented based on measurements of partial pressure of CO₂ in surface seawater, pCO_2sw, from an automated system onboard the cruise ship Explorer of the Seas for 2002 through 2004. The pCO_2sw values are used to develop algorithms of pCO_2sw based on sea surface temperature (SST) and position. The algorithms are applied to assimilated SST data and remotely sensed winds on a 1° by 1° grid to estimate the fluxes on weekly timescales in the region. The positive relationship between pCO_2sw and SST is lower than the isochemical trend suggesting counteracting effects from biological processes. The relationship varies systematically with location with a stronger dependence further south. Furthermore, the southern area shows significantly lower pCO_2sw in the fall compared to the spring at the same SST, which is attributed to differences in salinity. The annual algorithms for the entire region show a slight trend between 2002 and 2004 suggesting an increase of pCO_2sw over time. This is in accord with the increasing pCO_2sw due the invasion of anthropogenic CO₂. The annual fluxes of CO₂ yield a net invasion of CO₂ to the ocean that ranges from − 0.04 to − 1.2 mol m^− 2 year^− 1 over the 3 years. There is a seasonal reversal in the direction of the flux with CO₂ entering into the ocean during the winter and an evasion during the summer. Year-to-year differences in flux are primarily caused by temperature anomalies in the late winter and spring period resulting in changes in invasion during these seasons. An analysis of pCO_2sw before and after hurricane Frances (September 4–6, 2004), and wind records during the storm suggest a large local enhancement of the flux but minimal influence on annual fluxes in the region.     

Co-management of Tropical Coastal Zones: The Case of the Soufriere Marine Management Area,St. Lucia,WI

Centralized, top-down fisheries management models based on biological stock-recruitment have, at best, achieved limited success when adapted to Third World fisheries. Comanagement, a resource management approach oriented towards resource users and their communities, has been proposed as an alternative strategy for managing Third World fisheries. We examine the initial success and subsequent problems of one such collaborative coastal zone management project on St. Lucia's leeward coast. Factors that must be considered in the development, implementation, and maintenance of coastal comanagement systems operating in the contexts of tropical marine ecosystems in developing nations are identified and discussed.     

Vulnerability of Caribbean Island Cemeteries to Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports that rising seas by the end of this century will increase the severity of coastal flooding and erosion. The Caribbean region is home to many small islands that are vulnerable to sea level rise and storm surge. Much of the literature examining impacts of sea level rise in the Caribbean focuses on ecosystems, infrastructure, and recreation. Few studies have examined how sea level rise will impact historic and culturally important places. In an effort to address this research gap, geographic information systems and crowd-sourced, georeferenced photographs were used to build a first-of-its-kind database of 542 Caribbean small island cemeteries. Vulnerable cemeteries were then identified based upon elevation, proximity to the ocean, and the coastal profile. Over one-fifth of the cemeteries surveyed are within 100 m of the coast. The highest concentrations of vulnerable cemeteries are on flat islands such as the Cayman Islands. Yet, some mountainous islands such as Saint Martin also have potentially vulnerable cemeteries. These findings suggest that the bereaved, cemetery managers, and managers of coastal areas that have cemeteries may have additional considerations when making long-term decisions about where and how to bury the deceased.     

物理过程参数化方案对加勒比海台风模拟的影响

针对大气模式的多个物理过程,研究不同微物理过程和积云对流参数化方案组合对WRF模拟加勒比海地区台风路径和强度的影响。结果表明：虽然台风路径模拟对于参数化方案组合的选择具有一定的“个例依赖”特性,但综合来看,WSM5-Kessler的组合方案对模拟加勒比海地区台风路径的模拟效果最好,其次是WSM6-Kessler组合。台风强度模拟“个例依赖”特征不明显,以KF积云方案为最优,微物理过程方案对强度模拟影响不明显。     

Book review

The Cost of Environmental Protection: Regulating Housing in the Coastal Zone by Dan K. Richardson. Published by the Center for Urban Policy Research Rutgers University, 1976. 250 pp., $10.00.     

Port competition in Latin America and the Caribbean: the role of concessions and competition policy

Appropriate port regulation and competitive forces tend to be related to higher levels of operational and economic performance of ports. From a policy-making perspective, pursuing efficiency and securing competition in ports to reach a level playing field is a two-step process requiring (1) ex-ante regulations to set the rules that maximize the competition for the market, especially when the policy objective is to attract private operations to ports on competitive concession processes and (2) ex-post competition policy to monitor and preserve competition in the market. This paper studies port regulation in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) from a competition perspective, analyzing both ex-ante and ex-post policies implemented in the region. The analysis reveals that the competitive environment in LAC is low, giving room for possible anticompetitive practices in the LAC port sector. Since the end of the 1990s, approximately 80% of container terminals in the region were granted to only five companies. Chile and Mexico have been found to be the best practices in the region, with better conditions assuring robust competition in the market. The main policy implication from this analysis is the need for a stronger involvement of antitrust agencies throughout the port concession processes.     

Surveillance and Poaching on Inshore Reefs of the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park

The Great Barrier Reef (GBR), Australia, is managed under the GBR Marine Park Act (1975) and is seen as a shining example of marine resource management. The principle tool of management is zoning for multiple use. We examined surveillance and illegal fishing around two inshore islands (Magnetic and Orpheus) of the GBR Marine Park in 2000/2001. Both islands are near Townsville, the largest city adjacent to the GBR. Surveillance effort was low, with vessels present on only 16% of days of the year. Measurable but low levels of illegal recreational fishing occurred within no-take zones. Levels decreased with increasing surveillance effort. Thus zoning was not completely successful in protecting fish targeted by fisheries, even within the most highly enforced sections of the Park. The expansion of no-take zones in 2004 from 4.6% to 33.4% of the area of the 358,000 km2 Park represents a considerable challenge for future surveillance and enforcement.     

A Review of Whale-Watching and Whaling with Applications for the Caribbean

Whale-watching is a significant and growing tourism industry worldwide. Whaling has a long history and, although largely curtailed today, still occurs in a few countries around the world and in the Caribbean. Whaling has been labeled an incompatible activity with whale-watching because, in some cases, it reduces the number of whales available for use and changes whale behavior. Moreover, in some situations, whale-watching generates greater revenue than whaling, and whaling may detrimentally affect the larger tourism industry because of negative attitudes toward whaling by whale-watchers, other tourists, and host communities. This article examines the potential impacts of whaling on the whale-watching and tourism industries, and places these impacts in the Caribbean context. In doing so, the article outlines the history and current status of whale-watching in the Caribbean, outlines other potential constraints, and highlights the need for research about the impacts and roles of these industries. In the highly competitive global tourism industry, maintaining and nurturing a country's tourism image is critically important.