Eddies around Madagascar — The retroflection re-considered

The Agulhas Current with its retroflection and attendant eddy-shedding is the cause of some of the greatest mesoscale variability in the ocean. This paper considers the area to the south and east of Madagascar, which provides some of the source waters of the Agulhas Current, and examines the propagating sea surface height signals in altimetry and output from a numerical model, OCCAM. Both show bands of variability along the axis of the East Madagascar Current (EMC) and along a zonal band near 25°S. Sequences of images plus associated temperature data suggest that a number of westward-propagating eddies are present in this zonal band. The paper then focuses on the region to the south of the island, where ocean colour and infra-red imagery are evocative of an East Madagascar Retroflection. The synthesis of data analysed in this paper, however, shows that remotely observed features in this area can be explained by anticyclonic eddies moving westward through the region, and this explanation is consistent with numerical model output and the trajectories of drifting buoys.     

Habitual travel behaviour: Evidence from a six-week travel diary

This paper introduces different methods to measure similarity of travel behaviour addressing the question of how repetitious travel behaviour actually is. It compares empirical results of the different methods based on the data from a six-week travel diary. In general, the results show that the day-to-day behaviour is more variable if measured with trip-based methods instead of methods based on time budgets. Furthermore, it is confirmed that the similarity declines if the method captures more of the complexity of the travel pattern. It is also shown that travel behaviour is neither totally repetitious nor totally variable. Even for the whole observation period, it is demonstrated that two days always have some common elements. Additionally, it is found that the different methods yield the same pattern of variability for different types of day. Travel behaviour is clearly more stable on work days. Similar results for all methods are also obtained concerning the question of how long the minimum period of observation should be. All measures show that the period should not be less than two weeks if one aims at measuring variability.     

地下工程注浆技术研究新进展

注浆是土木、水利和矿山等工程建设中重要的防渗和加固技术。文章基于国内外注浆技术研究文献,总结了水泥等颗粒性浆液的“渗滤效应”及“黏度时空变异性”等理论研究成果,论述了非水反应高聚物、CW环氧树脂和微生物菌液等注浆新材料的应用现状及发展前景,介绍了细观力学数值模拟研究的突破性进展,可为地下工程注浆技术发展提供借鉴和启发作用。     

Determination of limiting cavity depths for offshore spudcan foundations in a spatially varying seabed

The importance of accurate prediction of limiting cavity depths during offshore spudcan foundations installation has been variously highlighted in the literature. Nonetheless, most of the previous research is deterministic in nature and confined to homogenous soils. Since offshore clayey soils can be highly spatially variable, there is a practical need to take proper account of the spatial variability in the prediction of limiting cavity depths. In a bid to remedy this situation, large deformation finite element calculations combined with three-dimensional random fields were repeatedly conducted in this study within a Monte-Carlo framework. The continuous penetration of a spudcan initiated from surface was explicitly modeled until a full-localized flow-around mechanism was observed. Spatial variability was found to clearly affect the soil back-flow and thereby the limiting cavity depth, the latter of which takes a range of values that can be approximately modeled as a log-normal distribution. Characteristic limiting cavity depths at various probability levels were ascertained. An algebraic expression was proposed to explicitly predict the characteristic limiting cavity depths in random soils from the fractile. Particular attention was paid to the lower and upper 5% characteristic values, which are likely to be useful for reliability-based design.     

The same mode again? An exploration of mode choice variability in Great Britain using the National Travel Survey

The main focus of travel behaviour research has been explaining differences in behaviour between individuals (interpersonal variability) with less emphasis given to the variability of behaviour within individuals (intrapersonal variability). The subject of this paper is the variability of transport modes used by individuals in their weekly travel. Our review shows that previous studies have not allowed the full use of different modes in weekly travel to be taken into account, have used categorical variables as simple indicators of modal variability and have only considered a limited set of explanatory indicators in seeking to explain modal variability. In our analysis we use National Travel Survey data for Great Britain. We analyse modal variability with continuous measures of modal variability (Herfindahl–Hirschman Index, the difference in mode share between the primary and secondary mode, the total number of modes used). Taking inspiration from Hägerstrand (1970), we conceive that modal variability is determined by different types of spatial mobility constraints and find that reduced modal variability is predicted for having mobility difficulties, being aged over 60, being non-white, working full-time, living in smaller settlement, lower household income, having regular access to a car, having no public transport pass/season ticket and not owning a bicycle. The findings can support a change in perspective in transport policy from encouraging people to replace the use of one mode with another to encouraging people to make a change to their relative use of different transport modes.     

Prediction of travel time variability for cost-benefit analysis

Unreliable travel times cause substantial costs to travelers. Nevertheless, they are often not taken into account in cost-benefit analyses (CBA), or only in very rough ways. This paper aims at providing simple rules to predict variability, based on travel time data from Dutch highways. Two different concepts of travel time variability are used, which differ in their assumptions on information availability to drivers. The first measure is based on the assumption that, for a given road link and given time of day, the expected travel time is constant across all working days (rough information: RI). In the second case, expected travel times are assumed to reflect day-specific factors such as weather conditions or weekdays (fine information: FI). For both definitions of variability, we find that the mean travel time is a good predictor. On average, longer delays are associated with higher variability. However, the derivative of variability with respect to delays is decreasing in delays. It can be shown that this result relates to differences in the relative shares of observed traffic ‘regimes’ (free-flow, congested, hyper-congested) in the mean delay. For most CBAs, no information on the relative shares of the traffic regimes is available. A non-linear model based on mean travel times can then be used as an approximation.     

Estimation of delay variability at signalized intersections for urban arterial performance evaluation

Urban arterial performance evaluation has been broadly studied, with the major focus on average travel time estimation. However, in view of the stochastic nature of interrupted flow, the ability to capture the characteristics of travel time variability has become a critical step in determining arterial level of service (LOS). This article first presents a stochastic approach that integrates classic cumulative curves and probability theories in order to investigate delay variability at signalized intersections, as a dominant part of the link travel time variability. This serves as a basis for arterial travel time estimation, which can be obtained through a convolution of individual link travel time distributions. The proposed approach is then applied in the estimation of travel time along one arterial in Shanghai, China, with abundant automatic vehicle identification (AVI) data sources. The travel time variability is evaluated thoroughly at 30-min intervals, with promising results achieved in comparison to the field measurements. In addition, the estimated travel time distributions are utilized to illustrate the probability of multiple LOS ranges, namely, reliability LOS. The results provide insights into how we might achieve a more reliable and informative understanding of arterial performance.     

Extracting driving characteristics from heavy goods vehicle tachograph charts

European Union regulations require haulage companies of member states like the UK to keep records of their drivers’ hours of work. All heavy goods vehicles (HGV's) over 7.5 tonnes are fitted with tachographs which record a driver's operating activities (periods of driving, other work and rest). These records are etched onto a laminated chart by various styli, one of which records the vehicle's speed. This paper describes the development and testing of a new technique for extracting individual driving characteristics from the speed trace of an HGV tachograph chart to calculate four parameters: distance travelled, average speed, time travelled and speed variability.

The average speed, time travelled and speed variability were analysed statistically using one‐way analysis of variance tests. Speed variability was found to be particularly useful for identifying differences between individual driver's behaviour. Once differences in behaviours can be identified it may be possible to link certain driving habits to factors such as component wear, accident rates and excessive fuel usage.     

Seasonal and interannual variation of physical and biological processes during 1994–2001 in the Sea of Japan/East Sea: A three-dimensional physical–biogeochemical modeling study

A Pacific basin-wide physical–biogeochemical model has been used to investigate the seasonal and interannual variation of physical and biological fields with analyses focusing on the Sea of Japan/East Sea (JES). The physical model is based on the Regional Ocean Model System (ROMS), and the biogeochemical model is based on the Carbon, Si(OH)₄, Nitrogen Ecosystem (CoSiNE) model. The coupled ROMS–CoSiNE model is forced with the daily air–sea fluxes derived from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis for the period of 1994 to 2001, and the model results are used to evaluate climate impact on nutrient transport in Mixed Layer Depth (MLD) and phytoplankton spring bloom dynamics in the JES.The model reproduces several key features of sea surface temperature (SST) and surface currents, which are consistent with the previous modeling and observational results in the JES. The calculated volume transports through the three major straits show that the Korea Strait (KS) dominates the inflow to the JES with 2.46 Sv annually, and the Tsugaru Strait (TS) and the Soya Strait (SS) are major outflows with 1.85 Sv and 0.64 Sv, respectively. Domain-averaged phytoplankton biomass in the JES reaches its spring peak 1.8 mmol N m^− 3 in May and shows a relatively weak autumn increase in November. Strong summer stratification and intense consumption of nitrate by phytoplankton during the spring result in very low nitrate concentration at the upper layer, which limits phytoplankton growth in the JES during the summer. On the other hand, the higher grazer abundance likely contributes to the strong suppression of phytoplankton biomass after the spring bloom in the JES. The model results show strong interannual variability of SST, nutrients, and phytoplankton biomass with sudden changes in 1998, which correspond to large-scale changes of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Regional comparisons of interannual variations in springtime were made for the southern and northern JES. Variations of nutrients and phytoplankton biomass related to the PDO warm/cold phase changes were detected in both the southern and northern JES, and there were regional differences with respect to the mechanisms and timing. During the warm PDO, the nutrients integrated in the MLD increased in the south and decreased in the north in winter. Conversely, during the cold PDO, the nutrients integrated in the MLD decreased in the south and increased in the north. Wind divergence/convergence likely drives the differences in the southern and northern regions when northerly and northwesterly monsoon dominates in winter in the JES. Subjected to the nutrient change, the growth of phytoplankton biomass appears to be limited neither by nutrient nor by light consistently both in the southern and northern regions. Namely, the JES is at the transition zone of the lower trophic-level ecosystem between light-limited and nutrient-limited zones.     

Hydrographic conditions affecting two fishing grounds of Mallorca island (Western Mediterranean): during the IDEA Project (2003–2004)

This paper describes the hydrographic conditions observed during six surveys carried out during 2003 and 2004, in the framework of the “IDEA Project” (acronym for “Influence of oceanographic structure and dynamics on demersal populations in waters of the Balearic Islands”). The surveys were developed on the shelf and slope of Mallorca Island, in particular in two fishing grounds at the north and south of the Mallorca channel. Periodic movements of the fishing fleet between these two areas have been regularly reported, suggesting a seasonal variability of the resources which could be in turn associated with the hydrodynamic variability. With this motivation, water masses affecting these grounds have been identified and their seasonal variability has been studied. Different oceanographic and environmental conditions have been found between the two fishing grounds. These differences are related to the presence of mesoscale structures, associated with the Western Mediterranean Intermediate Water (WIW) at the north of the Ibiza channel and big gyres detached from the Algerian Current. The former has been shown to have influence on the regional oceanic circulation and the latter could affect the progress of fresh Atlantic Water (AW) towards the channels and make possible the presence of high salinity values at intermediate waters at the south of Mallorca Island. Historical data from other oceanographic cruises carried out in the region are finally used to discuss the interannual variability of these mesoscale structures.