小汽车限行政策实践评述与反思

为解决小汽车保有量增加过快引发的交通相关问题,国内外许多城市开始实施限行政策。本文梳理总结了国内外城市限行政策的演化进程,发现尽管限行政策对缓解交通拥堵和改善空气污染有一定的作用,但不同城市的限行措施和限行效果也各有差异,出行者的一些规避限行的行为可能会对限行政策的实施效果产生一定的影响。     

新冠肺炎交通防控政策对长沙市人口流动的影响

为探究新冠肺炎疫情下交通防控政策对长沙市人口流动的影响，本文根据长沙市在新冠 肺炎疫情期间颁布的交通防控政策和疫情实时防控情况划分防控阶段，基于百度迁徙大数据，利 用双重差分模型，识别长沙市不同阶段的交通防控政策以及量化防控效果，分析交通防控政策对 长沙市人口流动的影响。结果显示，长沙市在交通管制阶段，平均人口迁出强度、平均人口迁入 强度及城市内部出行强度分别下降了83.68%、69.24%及59.74%，有效地控制了人口流动，降低了 疫情扩散危险。在交通恢复阶段，长沙市人口流动强度逐渐反弹，城市内部出行强度基本恢复到 2019年同期水平。本文研究结果显示了交通管制对疫情扩散限制的有效性，为常态化疫情防控 下精准防控政策和复工复产政策制定提供参考。     

Integrated models of land use and transportation for the autonomous vehicle revolution

ABSTRACT

The advent of the autonomous vehicle (AV) will affect not only the transportation system, but also future patterns of land development. Integrated land use and transportation models will be critical tools in assessing the path forward with this technology. Key questions with respect to land use impacts of AVs arise from potential changes in sensitivity to travel and reduced demand for parking. It is an open question whether AVs will induce urban sprawl, or whether spatial economies of agglomeration will mitigate any reductions in travel time sensitivity. The deployment of shared fleets of AVs would likely reduce parking demand, producing yet to be explored impacts on property development within existing urban footprints. We perform a critical assessment of currently operational models and their ability to represent the adoption of AVs. We identify the representation of time in such models as a vital component requiring additional development to model this new technology. Existing model applications have focused on the discrete addition of new infrastructure or policy at a fixed point in time, whereas AV adoption will occur incrementally through time. Stated adaptation surveys are recommended as tools to quantify preferences and develop relevant model inputs. It is argued that existing models that assume comparatively static equilibrium have been convenient in the past, but are insufficient to model technology adoption. In contrast, dynamic model frameworks lack sufficient structure to maintain reasonability under large perturbations from base conditions. The ongoing advancement of computing has allowed models to move away from being mechanistic aggregate tools, towards behaviourally rich depictions of individual persons and firms. However, much work remains to move from projections of existing conditions into the future, to the evolution of the spatial economy as it evolves through time in response to new technologies and exogenous stresses. Principles from complex and evolutionary systems theory will be important in the development of models with the capacity to consider such dynamics.     

Young drivers and graduated licensing: The Ontario case

Despite improvements in road safety over the past several decades, accident rates remain high for young drivers. One accident countermeasure that is expected to improve the safety record of this group is graduated licensing. The philosophy behind this licensing system is that novice drivers, of whom the majority are young, should be restricted to relatively safe driving environments during the initial learning period. Graduated licensing was implemented in the Province of Ontario, Canada in 1994. The objective of this study is to estimate the potential benefits and costs for young drivers associated with two components of the Ontario graduated licensing package: the late-night driving curfew and the high-speed roadway restrictions. Based on accident and travel data for the year 1988, accident-involvement rates per kilometre driven were calculated for different driver groups for various combinations of time of day and roadway speed limit. These rates were then applied to the expected mobility profiles of young drivers affected by graduated licensing. The results of the study support the late-night curfew and suggest that this component of the licensing package should reduce total accident involvements for the affected group by up to 10 percent and fatal accident involvements by up to 24 percent, while reducing their total driving by only four percent. By contrast, the empirical evidence suggest that the high-speed roadway restrictions are likely to increase accident involvements, and thus it is strongly recommended that this component of Ontario's graduated licensing package be changed.     

区域港口建设项目投资风险预警管理系统研究

分析了我国当前区域港口建设中存在的问题,阐述了开展区域港口建设项目投资风险预警管理研究的意义,建立了区域港口建设项目投资风险预警管理系统的模型、预警指标体系及其评判方法,对珠江三角洲地区的港口建设管理提出了建议.     

Development and Deployment of Public Transport Policy and Planning in Taiwan

Over the past decade, the escalating roadway congestion and environmental deterioration due to heavy use of private vehicles have provoked the Taiwan government to realize the importance of public transport systems. Under the “carrot-and-stick” rationales, the government has formulated public transport policies and exercised a series of related initiatives by providing sufficient and higher quality of public transport services so as to attract more private vehicle users. In this paper, the planning philosophy and policy formulation of Taiwan’s public transport development are highlighted. The most important initiatives, including the Five-year Enhancement of Mass Transportation Program and the upgrading public transport schemes in the National Development Plan are examined. Based on previous experience and lessons, we point out the most challenging issues that the government will encounter. Suggestions for the future of public transport planning are also addressed.     

公路投标价编制技巧与报价策略

就企业如何进行投标价的编制与报价 ,以及如何提高报价决策技巧来赢取工程任务并取得最佳经济效益进行了探讨。     

对中国未来10年道路交通安全状况分析与初步预测

笔者从中国现代道路交通系统的发展现状与道路交通安全状况出发，以过去10多年中国汽车、摩托车保有量的发展轨迹为基础，对中国未来一定时期（2004～2015年）机动车保有量的发展变化及政府采取不同管理对策条件下的道路交通安全状况的发展水平进行了预测。结果表明：政府管理对策对道路交通安全状况变化具有决定性影响。     

状态维修系统的指数分布检测策略

系统有4种运行状态：正常、异常、隐患和故障，系统从正常依次经异常、隐患到达故障。正常状态、异常状态和隐患状态为系统的工作状态，系统处于哪种工作状态检测诊断后才能知道，系统故障时不需检测诊断就能知道。系统每次开始正常工作后，每隔一段随机时间对它检测诊断一次，直到系统故障或检测诊断出系统处于异常或隐患状态为止，并且诊断正常和异常时结果有可能出现错误，隐患诊断结果不会出错。在系统的寿命为连续型随机变量，检测间隔时间服从指数分布的假设下，利用向量Markov过程方法求出了系统的可靠性指标、系统的最优检测策略。     

长梁山隧道F26断层施工超前地质预报

研究目的：在隧道施工中,准确预报施工前方地质条件,尤其是区域断层的规模、性质和影响范围,将影响施工质量、工期与安全。研究方法：在采用针对性地质调绘、掌子面素描、综合物探、水文长期观测等综合方法基础上,进行相关性分析。研究结果：采用节理相关性预报断层在洞内的出现里程位置,并推导出相关公式。研究结论：经施工验证F26断层采用的综合超前预报技术是合理的、有效的;运用节理相关性分析方法,预报了断层在洞内的出现里程位置;地质超前预报应针对地质特点,选取相应的预测预报技术。