Integrated models of land use and transportation for the autonomous vehicle revolution

ABSTRACT

The advent of the autonomous vehicle (AV) will affect not only the transportation system, but also future patterns of land development. Integrated land use and transportation models will be critical tools in assessing the path forward with this technology. Key questions with respect to land use impacts of AVs arise from potential changes in sensitivity to travel and reduced demand for parking. It is an open question whether AVs will induce urban sprawl, or whether spatial economies of agglomeration will mitigate any reductions in travel time sensitivity. The deployment of shared fleets of AVs would likely reduce parking demand, producing yet to be explored impacts on property development within existing urban footprints. We perform a critical assessment of currently operational models and their ability to represent the adoption of AVs. We identify the representation of time in such models as a vital component requiring additional development to model this new technology. Existing model applications have focused on the discrete addition of new infrastructure or policy at a fixed point in time, whereas AV adoption will occur incrementally through time. Stated adaptation surveys are recommended as tools to quantify preferences and develop relevant model inputs. It is argued that existing models that assume comparatively static equilibrium have been convenient in the past, but are insufficient to model technology adoption. In contrast, dynamic model frameworks lack sufficient structure to maintain reasonability under large perturbations from base conditions. The ongoing advancement of computing has allowed models to move away from being mechanistic aggregate tools, towards behaviourally rich depictions of individual persons and firms. However, much work remains to move from projections of existing conditions into the future, to the evolution of the spatial economy as it evolves through time in response to new technologies and exogenous stresses. Principles from complex and evolutionary systems theory will be important in the development of models with the capacity to consider such dynamics.     

Development of Green-Naghdi models with a wave-absorbing beach for nonlinear, irregular wave propagation

Two-dimensional and three-dimensional Green-Naghdi (GN) models equipped with a numerical wave-absorbing beach have been developed to simulate nonlinear, regular, and irregular wave propagation. The numerical beach is introduced near the downstream boundary to absorb outgoing waves. An appropriate amount of numerical damping and an appropriate length of numerical beach are investigated using numerical experiments. The results show that the GN models with a numerical beach work very well in simulating wave propagation in water in a small computational domain.     

建构主义学习理论及其倡导的教学模式

本文简要分析了建构主义全新的学习理论以及受其理论影响而形成的教学模式,并结合其基本理论阐述了对大学英语教学的启示。文章认为,教学模式和教学方法的改革离不开现代外语教学理论的指导,建构主义学习理论对传统的教学理论和观念提出了挑战,为大学英语教学模式的转变提供了理论依据。     

Estimation of value of travel time reliability

In mode choice decision, travelers consider not only travel time but also reliability of its modes. In this paper, reliability was expressed in terms of standard deviation and maximum delay that were measured based on triangular distribution. In order to estimate value of time and value of reliability, the Multinomial and Nested Logit models were used. The analysis results revealed that reliability is an important factor affecting mode choice decisions. Elasticity is used to estimate the impacts of the different policies and system improvements for water transportation mode. Among these policies, decision maker can assess and select the best alternative by doing the benefit and cost analysis based on a new market share, the value of time, and the value of reliability. Finally, a set of promising policies and system improvement of the water transportation were proposed.     

基于多项Logit模型的轨道交通站点步行接驳范围

在分析步行环境、出行时间、出行费用等出行特征影响因素的基础上,运用多项Logit模型建立了居民出行方式选择模型,根据效用相当原则确定城市轨道交通步行接驳范围。根据某城市的某个轨道交通站点的调查数据,利用本文提出的方法计算该站点的步行接驳范围,与传统的接驳范围经验取值及意向调查结果进行比较,发现计算结果与调查统计结果较为一致。计算结果表明,该计算方法是有效合理的,能够为城市轨道交通站点的规划、选址和评价提供依据。     

路段动态特征中的交通组成因素研究

基于对交通流建模过程中将车型单一考虑为标准小汽车,忽略了现实交通量中车型的不同构成,本文通过对不同车型的动力特性进行标定,将其特性反映在跟车模型与车道变换模型中,并且利用交通仿真技术,分析了交通量构成对路段行程时间、车速、延误等动态特性指标的影响。     

Optimal planning of liquefied natural gas deliveries

We investigate the problem of designing an optimal annual delivery plan for Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG). This problem requires determining the long-term cargo delivery dates and the assignment of vessels to the cargoes while accommodating several constraints, including berth availability, liquefaction terminal inventory, planned maintenance, and bunkering requirements. We describe a novel mixed-integer programming formulation that captures important industry requirements and constraints with the objective of minimizing the vessel fleet size. A peculiar property of the proposed formulation is that it includes a polynomial number of variables and constraints and is, in our experience, computationally tractable for large problem instances using a commercial solver. Extensive computational runs demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed model for real instances provided by a major energy company that involve up to 118 cargoes and a 373-day planning horizon.     

Influential vectors in fuel consumption by an urban bus operator: Bus route,driver behavior or vehicle type?

Energy costs account for an important share of the total costs of urban and suburban bus operators. The purpose of this paper is to expand empirical research on bus transit operation costs and identify the key factors that influence bus energy efficiency of the overall bus fleet of one operator and aid to the management of its resources.We estimate a set of multivariate regression models, using cross-section dataset of 488 bus drivers operating over 92 days in 2010, in 87 routes with different bus typologies, of a transit company operating in the Lisbon’s Metropolitan Area (LMA), Rodoviária de Lisboa, S.A.Our results confirm the existence of influential variables regarding energy efficiency and these are mainly: vehicle type, commercial speed, road grades over 5% and bus routes; and to a lesser extent driving events such as: sudden longitudinal decelerations and excessive engine rotation. The methodology proved to be useful for the bus operator as a decision-support tool for efficiency optimization purpose at the company level.     

Development of railway station choice models to improve the representation of station catchments in rail demand models

ABSTRACT

This paper describes the development of railway station choice models suitable for defining probabilistic station catchments. These catchments can then be incorporated into the aggregate demand models typically used to forecast demand for new rail stations. Revealed preference passenger survey data obtained from the Welsh and Scottish Governments was used for model calibration. Techniques were developed to identify trip origins and destinations from incomplete address information and to automatically validate reported trips. A bespoke trip planner was used to derive mode-specific station access variables and train leg measures. The results from a number of multinomial logit and random parameter (mixed) logit models are presented and their predictive performance assessed. The models were found to have substantially superior predictive accuracy compared to the base model (which assumes the nearest station has a probability of one), indicating that their incorporation into passenger demand forecasting methods has the potential to significantly improve model predictive performance.     

车务可视化信息系统设计与实现

车务可视化信息系统通过三维模型及虚拟漫游的展现形式,将铁路运行及运营的动态信息进行集成和柔性展示,实现旅客服务信息及运输管理相关数据的整合,通过可视化的展现方式既方便旅客及管理人员,又充分展示铁路信息化建设的成果。