Cost overruns in transportation infrastructure projects: Sowing the seeds for a probabilistic theory of causation

Understanding the cause of cost overruns in transportation infrastructure projects has been a topic that has received considerable attention from academics and the popular press. Despite studies providing the essential building blocks and frameworks for cost overrun mitigation and containment, the problem still remains a pervasive issue for Governments worldwide. The interdependency that exists between ‘causes’ that lead to cost overruns materialising have largely been ignored when considering the likelihood and impact of their occurrence. The vast majority of the cost overrun literature has tended to adopt a deterministic approach in examining the occurrence of the phenomenon; in this paper a shift towards the adoption of pluralistic probabilistic approach to cost overrun causation is proposed. The establishment of probabilistic theory incorporates the ability to consider the interdependencies of causes so to provide Governments with a holistic understanding of the uncertainties and risks that may derail the delivery and increase the cost of transportation infrastructure projects. This will further assist in the design of effective mitigation and containment strategies that will ensure future transportation infrastructure projects meet their expected costs as well as the need of taxpayers.     

新时期交通运输与其他产业融合特征

推进交通运输与其他产业融合是贯彻党中央精神、加快交通强国建设的重要支撑。本文系统阐述了我国交通运输与其他产业的内在联系,剖析了融合的作用机理,对新时期交通运输与其他产业融合进行了定义,分析了融合的主要特征,提出了发展对策建议,对于指导交通运输与其他产业融合、推动交通运输行业高质量发展、建设交通强国具有重要意义。