Using repeated cross-sectional travel surveys to enhance forecasting robustness: Accounting for changing mode preferences

Transportation system capacity and performance, urban form and socio-demographics define the influences and constraints conditioning the preferences of urban residents for different transport modes. Changes in characteristics of urban areas are likely to lead to changes in preferences for alternative modes of transport over time; as a consequence, statistical models to forecast mode choice need to be sensitive to both purposeful changes to urban systems as well as exogenous shocks. We make use of the 1996, 2001 and 2006 household surveys conducted in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area to study mode preference evolution and model forecasting performance. These repeated cross-sectional household surveys provide an opportunity to investigate aggregate structural changes in commuting mode preferences over time, in a manner sensitive to changes in the urban area. We focus on commuting mode choices because these trips are prime determinants of peak period congestion and peak spreading. We then address how to combine the three cross-sections econometrically in a robust way that allows for use of a single mode choice model across the entire period. Using independent data from 2012, we are able to compare the individual year and combined models in terms of forecasting performance to demonstrate the combined model’s more robust forecasting performance into the future.     

A mixed logit model for predicting exit choice during building evacuations

Knowledge on human behaviour in emergency is crucial to increase the safety of buildings and transportation systems. Decision making during evacuations implies different choices, of which one of the most important concerns is the escape route. The choice of a route may involve local decisions on alternative exits from an enclosed environment. This study investigates the effect of environmental (presence of smoke, emergency lighting and distance of exit) and social factors (interaction with evacuees close to the exits and with those near the decision-maker) on local exit choice. This goal is pursued using an online stated preference survey carried out making use of non-immersive virtual reality. A sample of 1503 participants is obtained and a mixed logit model is calibrated using these data. The model shows that the presence of smoke, emergency lighting, distance of exit, number of evacuees near the exits and the decision-maker and flow of evacuees through the exits significantly affect local exit choice. Moreover, the model indicates that decision making is affected by a high degree of behavioural uncertainty. Our findings support the improvement of evacuation models and the accuracy of their results, which can assist in designing and managing building and transportation systems. The main aim of this study is to enrich the understanding of how local exit choices are made and how behavioural uncertainty affects these choices.     

中国岩土分异规律及其对公路建设的影响

岩土条件对公路路基路面、桥涵、隧道等各类构造物的稳定性、耐久性、安全性、经济性影响显著。从公路工程角度提出了新的岩土类型划分,并在整理和参考大量相关图件的基础上,利用ArcGIS9.1编制了《中国公路岩土类型分布图》;进行了初步的公路岩土分区,运用大地构造学、公路工程地质等方面原理分析了中国公路岩土分异规律,并以黄土高原岩土区为例,阐述了岩土分异规律对公路建设的影响。认识公路岩土的分异规律,对公路建设乃至公路自然区划的研究具有一定的指导意义。     

客流因素影响地铁正点运营的分析与对策

随着地铁客流量的不断增长,因客流因素影响地铁正点运营情况日益突出。通过对客流因素影响时段、站点、形式、范围等具体分析,把握和了解客流因素影响具有时间高度集中、组织难度大、影响范围广、联动联控性强等特点。针对这些特点,提出降低客流因素影响的相关对策措施和建议,从优化行车组织方式、加大客流控制力度、强化关键卡控和硬件保障、优化作业程序、开展宣传教育等方面入手,进一步挖潜增效,提高运营质量和运输服务水平。     

降排水技术在淮安三线船闸土建工程中应用

介绍淮安三线船闸基坑降排水的方法,并对降水过程中水位监测结果进行分析,同时阐述了降水对周围建筑物影响并对相关处理方法进行探讨。     

Quantitative estimation of the influence of surface thermal fronts over chlorophyll concentration at the Patagonian shelf

Eighteen-year (1985–2002) mean monthly SST Pathfinder data with 9 km spatial resolution have been used to estimate surface gradients by finite differences. Then the seasonal climatological means have been calculated from the intensity of these gradients, and surface thermal fronts present in the Patagonian Continental Shelf (PCS) have been located. Moreover, 6 years (1998–2003) of SeaWiFS data with approximately 4 km spatial resolution have been used to estimate monthly composite images of surface chlorophyll concentration, after which seasonal climatological means distributions have been generated. Both seasonal distributions have been analyzed together and by combining the knowledge of oceanographic processes and phytoplankton responses to light and nutrient availability, regions where the presence of a thermal front affects photosynthetic activity have been identified. Subjective criteria have been applied to define eighteen areas where phytoplankton biomass is influenced by the presence of a thermal front. In these areas, the surface chlorophyll (spatial mean and total), its relationship with the surface chlorophyll of the whole region, and the seasonal evolution of this relationship have been calculated. All frontal areas cover less than 15% of the total surface, but they contribute with over 23% of the phytoplankton annual mean biomass. Considered as a group, during summer they show high chlorophyll values very similar to those in spring. During the cold period, when the water column is vertically mixed in practically the whole of PCS, the influence of physical fronts over the biological production is minimum. The frontal zone image remains clearly defined during summer, when approximately 85% of the area will have a determined mean chlorophyll concentration, while the other 15% has a 2.45 times larger value. While three pattern trends have been identified in the frontal areas, only two of them condition the pattern of the group, due to their horizontal extension.     

环境变化下基于核典型相关分析与协整的损伤识别方法

采用传统协整方法进行损伤识别时，需要变量间满足较好的线性关系，而实际工程中监测变量往往存在一定程度的非线性，这使得协整方法的有效性受到影响。为此，提出一种结合核典型相关分析与协整的损伤识别方法。首先利用核典型相关分析能有效处理非线性相关变量的优点，将低维空间存在非线性关系的监测变量映射到高维空间，使其转化为线性相关的核典型变量。然后利用协整方法能够消除变量间共同趋势的特点，对核典型变量间的共同环境因素影响进行分离，并以分离环境因素影响后的协整残差作为损伤指标进行损伤识别。最后通过芬兰Kullaa课题组的木桁架桥试验数据，对协整方法、结合典型相关分析与协整的方法、核典型相关分析和协整相结合方法这3种方法的损伤识别结果进行比较。研究结果表明：在分析非线性数据方面，核典型相关分析要优于典型相关分析；前2种方法受监测变量数目的影响较大，选择不同数目的监测变量将得到不同的识别结果，而该方法对监测变量数目不敏感；且在损伤识别的漏判率方面该方法明显优于其他2种方法。     

论公路建设项目与环境保护

我国从现在起到2020年,是公路大发展和走向现代化的时期,我们面临看大规模的公路建设对环境的种种不良影响,故在认识公路建设对环境的影响及其现状时,应从不同的角度提出相应的对策和措施,以保证周围环境受到最小程度的影响并杜绝某些危害的发生。     

TRIMs协议对我国汽车工业的影响研究

加入世界贸易组织后 ,TRIMs协议将对我国汽车工业产生深刻的影响。本文从法律角度进行了分析 ,并提出应当采取的法律对策     

公路建设对生态环境的影响和防治对策

分析公路设计、施工和营运阶段对生态环境可能造成的各种负面影响,提出相应的防护和治理措施,并着重论述3S技术在公路环保中的作用和意义。