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Heteroscedastic Gaussian processes for uncertainty modeling in large-scale crowdsourced traffic data
Accurately modeling traffic speeds is a fundamental part of efficient intelligent transportation systems. Nowadays, with the widespread deployment of GPS-enabled devices, it has become possible to crowdsource the collection of speed information to road users (e.g. through mobile applications or dedicated in-vehicle devices). Despite its rather wide spatial coverage, crowdsourced speed data also brings very important challenges, such as the highly variable measurement noise in the data due to a variety of driving behaviors and sample sizes. When not properly accounted for, this noise can severely compromise any application that relies on accurate traffic data. In this article, we propose the use of heteroscedastic Gaussian processes (HGP) to model the time-varying uncertainty in large-scale crowdsourced traffic data. Furthermore, we develop a HGP conditioned on sample size and traffic regime (SSRC-HGP), which makes use of sample size information (probe vehicles per minute) as well as previous observed speeds, in order to more accurately model the uncertainty in observed speeds. Using 6 months of crowdsourced traffic data from Copenhagen, we empirically show that the proposed heteroscedastic models produce significantly better predictive distributions when compared to current state-of-the-art methods for both speed imputation and short-term forecasting tasks. 相似文献
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This paper focuses on the evaluation processes by which decisions regarding transportation alternatives can be assisted. A multidimensional approach usually called multiple criteria decision making is required to represent the complexity of transportation policy and systems. The multiple criteria decision making techniques can be divided into two groups. The first is based on a ranking scheme approach and the second on a mathematical programming approach. A multiple objective mathematical programming procedure known as Goal Programming is presented. The authors examined the use of that procedure in real transportation problems. The results suggest that multiple objective mathematical programming techniques in general do not appear to be appropriate in transportation policy analysis involving mutually exclusive alternatives. Their use can be limited to special cases in the private sector. 相似文献
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Yanru Zhang 《智能交通系统杂志
》2016,20(3):205-218
》2016,20(3):205-218
Short-term traffic flow forecasting is a critical function in advanced traffic management systems (ATMS) and advanced traveler information systems (ATIS). Accurate forecasting results are useful to indicate future traffic conditions and assist traffic managers in seeking solutions to congestion problems on urban freeways and surface streets. There is new research interest in short-term traffic flow forecasting due to recent developments in intelligent transportation systems (ITS) technologies. Previous research involves technologies in multiple areas, and a significant number of forecasting methods exist in the literature. However, most studies used univariate forecasting methods, and they have limited forecasting abilities when part of the data is missing or erroneous. While the historical average (HA) method is often applied to deal with this issue, the forecasting accuracy cannot be guaranteed. This article makes use of the spatial relationship of traffic flow at nearby locations and builds up two multivariate forecasting approaches: the vector autoregression (VAR) and the general regression neural network (GRNN) based forecasting models. Traffic data collected from U.S. Highway 290 in Houston, TX, were used to test the model performance. Comparison of performances of the three models (HA, VAR, and GRNN) in different missing ratios and forecasting time intervals indicates that the accuracy of the VAR model is more sensitive to the missing ratio, while on average the GRNN model gives more robust and accurate forecasting with missing data, particularly when the missing data ratio is high. 相似文献
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王尽忠 《国防交通工程与技术》2013,(5):66-68
TSP超前地质预报系统是利用接收入工地震波来完成地下工程的超前探测。以发育在中天山隧道1#斜井的雁行式断裂带为研究对象,介绍了TSP超前地质预报系统的应用。重点介绍了解译过程中将前期地质工作和地质物探资料有机结合在一起,确定超前地质预报目标体的特征及其与中天山隧道的关系,从而使得TSP超前地质预报探测有了明确的目标,保证TSP超前地质预报的质量。 相似文献
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Estimates of road speeds have become commonplace and central to route planning, but few systems in production provide information about the reliability of the prediction. Probabilistic forecasts of travel time capture reliability and can be used for risk-averse routing, for reporting travel time reliability to a user, or as a component of fleet vehicle decision-support systems. Many of these uses (such as those for mapping services like Bing or Google Maps) require predictions for routes in the road network, at arbitrary times; the highest-volume source of data for this purpose is GPS data from mobile phones. We introduce a method (TRIP) to predict the probability distribution of travel time on an arbitrary route in a road network at an arbitrary time, using GPS data from mobile phones or other probe vehicles. TRIP captures weekly cycles in congestion levels, gives informed predictions for parts of the road network with little data, and is computationally efficient, even for very large road networks and datasets. We apply TRIP to predict travel time on the road network of the Seattle metropolitan region, based on large volumes of GPS data from Windows phones. TRIP provides improved interval predictions (forecast ranges for travel time) relative to Microsoft’s engine for travel time prediction as used in Bing Maps. It also provides deterministic predictions that are as accurate as Bing Maps predictions, despite using fewer explanatory variables, and differing from the observed travel times by only 10.1% on average over 35,190 test trips. To our knowledge TRIP is the first method to provide accurate predictions of travel time reliability for complete, large-scale road networks. 相似文献
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随着智能运输系统的广泛应用,实时交通流量预测的重要性也日益显著。本文介绍了预测模型发展过程中比较重要的几个模型,并由此引出人工神经网络。介绍误差逆传播(BP)模型的相关理论。指出传统BP神经网络的缺陷,并提出提高预测精度的措施引进高阶神经网络。建立普通BP神经网络的预测模型,利用误差反传播算法实现这些影响因素到输出变量的复杂映射,再用高阶神经网络构建另一预测模型。利用交叉口实测数据进行预测,并用实际数据进行比较验证。 相似文献
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It is sometimes argued that standard state-of-practice logit-based models cannot forecast the demand for substantially reduced travel times, for instance due to High Speed Rail (HSR). The present paper investigates this issue by reviewing the literature on travel time elasticities for long distance rail travel and comparing these with elasticities observed when new HSR lines have opened. This paper also validates the Swedish long distance model, Sampers, and its forecast demand for a proposed new HSR, using aggregate data revealing how the air–rail modal split varies with the difference in generalized travel time between rail and air. The Sampers long distance model is also compared to a newly developed model applying Box–Cox transformations. The paper contributes to the empirical literature on long distance travel, long distance elasticities and HSR passenger demand forecasts. Results indicate that the Sampers model is indeed able to predict the demand for HSR reasonably well. The new non-linear model has even better model fit and also slightly higher elasticities. 相似文献
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