弹性停车激励机制下驾车者竞价行为演化机理研究

在获取通勤驾车者个体活动出行轨迹及停车竞价数据的基础上，构建基于生存分析理论的驾车者竞价行为演化模型，解析不同因素对停车竞价行为的影响机理；应用灵敏度分析方法，研究激励方案及职住区位设施供给对竞价持续时长的作用规律.结果表明：弹性停车激励机制使原本为“耐用品”的停车泊位转变为“消耗品”，可以通过竞价激励方式降低驾车者的小汽车依赖性，提高城市停车泊位利用率；在弹性停车激励机制作用下，驾车者的泊位共享积极性不仅受自身社会经济属性影响，还受职住区位特征及竞价激励方案的影响；随着通勤驾车者停车泊位共享积极性的增强，参与停车竞价的次数越多，竞价行为的持续时间越长.

Evolution Mechanism of Drivers' Bidding Behavior under Flexible Parking Incentive Mechanism

This study proposed an evolutionary model describing drivers' bidding behavior based on survival analysis theory, commuting drivers' individual activities, and parking bidding data. The impact of different factors on parking bidding behaviors was analyzed, and the impacts of incentive scheme, facilities supply of jobs and residential locations on the bidding duration were analyzed by sensitivity analysis method. The results indicate that: (1) the application of flexible parking incentive mechanism was able to transform the parking spaces as “consumable goods”from the“durable goods”. It reduced drivers' dependence on cars and improved the utilization of urban parking spaces through bidding and incentives. (2) Because of the flexible parking incentive mechanism, drivers' preferences on shared parking is not only affected by their social and economic background, but by the characteristics of occupational and residential areas and the setting of incentive schemes. (3) When more commuting drivers prefer to use share parking spaces, the duration of bidding behaviors would increase with the increase of times participate in parking bidding