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为了更加准确而有效地描述复杂、时变的城市道路网络和交通状况，并且为道路网络功能的合理级配和缓解城市交通拥堵的局面提供一个切实可行的途径，本文提出了城市道路网络失效相关分析的方法。该方法是在采用改进的多路径交通分配得到的路网流量数据基础上，使用失效准则判定道路单元，再使用Monte Carlo方法和线性回归方法计算道路单元的失效概率和相关系数，最后结合概率网络估算技术判断道路网络失效的相关性。本文还具体结合一个测试网络给出了该方法的使用流程，并论证其可行性。而且分析了失效相关性的影响因素和道路网络功能级配与失效相关性之间的关系。

Failure Correlation Analysis of Urban Road Network

To describe the complex, time-varying urban road network and traffic conditions more accurately and effectively, and provide a feasible approach for the optimal gradation of the road network functions and remission of urban traffic congestion as well, this paper presents the failure correlation analysis method of urban road network. Based on the traffic flow obtained by improved multi-path traffic assignment, this method determines road network unit by failure criterion. Then, the failure probability and correlation is calculated with Monte Carlo simulation technique and linear regression method. Finally, the failure correlation of urban road network can be estimated by probability network evaluation technology. The detailed operation and feasibility of the proposed method are illustrated based on a test road network. Moreover, it analyzes the influence factors of failure correlation and its relationship with the gradations of the road network functions.