| 基于实时数据的路网行程时间可靠度模型研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 余艳春,邵春福,郭钰愫,熊志华.基于实时数据的路网行程时间可靠度模型研究[J].现代交通技术,2006,3(2):70-73. |
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| 作者姓名： | 余艳春 邵春福 郭钰愫 熊志华 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京交通大学交通运输学院,北京,100044 |
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| 摘 要： | 道路行程时间可靠度是衡量城市道路交通服务质量的指标之一。本文分析和处理道路实时交通数据．统计其行程时间的分布，并拟合行程时间的分布曲线。以此为基础，构建行程时间可靠度模型，并进行案例分析。本文研究得出：路段的行程时间服从正态分布；出行者要求可靠度越高，需要预估的行程时间就越大；即使出行者期望的可靠度相等，对应不同的出发时刻预估行程时间也不同。
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| 关 键 词： | 实时数据 可靠度 行程时间 正态分布 |
| 文章编号： | 1672-9889（2006）02-0070-04 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006-03-24 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006年3月24日 |
Research on Travel Time Reliability Model Based on Real-time Data |
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| Yu Yanchun,Shao Chunfu,Guo Yusu,Xiong Zhihua.Research on Travel Time Reliability Model Based on Real-time Data[J].Modern Transportation Technology,2006,3(2):70-73. |
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| Authors: | Yu Yanchun Shao Chunfu Guo Yusu Xiong Zhihua |
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| Institution: | School of Traffic and Transportation, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044, China |
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| Abstract: | Road travel time reliability is one of parameters of evaluation of the traffic service quality of urban road network. Real-time traffic data are analyzed and the distribution of travel time is studied in this paper and it also worked out the distributing curve of travel time.According to the distribution, travel time reliability model is built for analyzing urban expressway network,It coneluded that travel time has normal distribution and traveler should give more preparative travel time with expectation of higher reliability.The travel time reliability also relates to the depature time. |
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| Keywords: | real-time data reliability travel time normal distribution |
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