基于AIS数据的船舶航行安全评价模型构建

针对现有船舶海上航行安全度求解复杂、参考因素权重确定困难等方面的不足，研究影响评价模型准确性的数据来源、模型构建方法等问题，提出一种基于关系型数据库的船舶重要指标筛选方法和数据库构建及检索设计方案。构建基于模糊数学方法、层次分析法(Analytic Hierarchy Process, AHP)和专家评价法的船舶碰撞危险度(Collision Risk Index, CRI)求解模型，并根据实船自动识别系统(Automatic Identification System, AIS)数据对船舶航行安全评价数学模型和构建的数据库进行验证。结果表明，基于AIS数据的船舶航行安全评价数据库具有较好的可靠性和易用性。船舶航行安全评价模型计算结果可信，符合专家经验及《国际海上避碰规则》要求，可为船舶海上航行安全评价提供技术和理论支持。

Construction of Ship Navigation Safety Evaluation Model Based on AIS Data

In view of the existing shortcomings such as complex solution of ship navigation safety degree at sea and difficult weight determination of reference factors, etc., the problems such as data sources and model construction methods that influence the accuracy of evaluation model are studied, a ship important index screening method and a design scheme of database construction and retrieval are proposed based on the relational database. A ship collision risk solution model based on the fuzzy mathematics method, Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), and expert evaluation method is constructed, and the ship navigation safety evaluation mathematical model and constructed database are verified according to the real ship Automatic Identification System (AIS) data. The results show that the ship navigation safety evaluation database based on the AIS data is of better reliability and usability. The calculation results of ship navigation safety evaluation model are reliable and accord with the expert experience and the requirements of The International Regulations for Preventing Collisions at Sea 1972, which can provide technical and theoretical support for the evaluation of ship navigation safety at sea.