我国航空旅客运输需求预测——基于计量经济学与系统动力学组合模型

航空运输需求预测是民航发展规划和决策的前提,预测结果的精度会对民航的发展产生重要的影响.基于系统动力学原理构建了民航客运需求系统的因果关系图,分析了各因素间的因果关系,在此基础上,建立了航空客运需求的系统动力学模型,并引入了计量经济学来建立模型的数学方程.然后,对模型进行了有效性检验,结果显示建立的模型可以较好地反映民航客运的实际需求,证明了模型的有效性.最后,应用该模型对我国未来几年的航空客运需求进行了预测,并对比了不同的预测情景,结果显示经济水平对航空客运需求影响显著,宽松的人口政策在一定程度上会降低航空客运需求.

Prediction of Passenger Demand in Air Transportation:A Combination Model Based on Econometrics and System Dynamics

The demand prediction of air passenger transportation is the premise of civil aviation development planning and decision-making, the precision of prediction results will have a major impact on the development of civil aviation. A causality loop for air transport system was built to analyze the causal relationship between the factors based on the system dynamics principle. Then an air passenger demand model was established on the basis of causality loop, and the econometrics was introduced to establish mathematical equations. The validity of the model was tested, the results shown that the model established in the article conld preferably reflect the actual demand of air passenger transportation, it proved the validity and stability of the combination model. Finally, the air passenger transportation demand in the next few years was forecasted by this prediction model, and different prediction scenarios were compared. The results of the comparison shows that the economic level has a great effect on air passenger demand, and the slack population policy will reduce the air passenger demand to a certain extent.