青藏铁路布局稳定性评价问题研究

青藏铁路作为川藏铁路规划与建设的重要参照标准，从空间布局，运输效率和经济社会正外部性等方面对其稳定性进行评价尤为必要.本文根据铁路规划，建设与运营的稳定性内涵来设计指标，利用 AHP-FCE方法赋予指标权重，依托三角图论构建模型对青藏铁路进行综合评价，借助 Grapher10来描述其演进路径.结果表明，2007-2014年间青藏铁路布局处于基本稳定状态，总体演进路径呈现由强稳定转变为一般稳定，再转变为弱稳定的阶段性特征，其中，2010年青藏铁路所呈现出的稳定性最高.

Stability Evaluation for Routes Layout of Qinghai-Tibet Railway Based on Triangle Model

As the reference standards of planning and construction for other railways of the Tibet area, it’s necessary to evaluate the stability of the Qinghai-Tibet railway from the following aspects: the spatial layout of lines, overall transportation efficiency, and positive externalities influences of economy and society. In this paper, the index was designed from the stability connotation of railway line planning, construction and operation. The corresponding index weight was given by AHP- FCE. Based on the triangular graph theory, the model was constructed to evaluate the stability of Qinghai-Tibet railway route layout comprehensively, and Grapher 10 was used to describe the evolution path of its stability trend. The results of this study show that the route layout of Qinghai-Tibet railway was basically stable from 2007 to 2014, and the evolution path of the overall trend shows a stage feature from strongly stable to generally stable and then to weakly stable. Among them, the stability was at the optimal level in 2010.