公路客运价格对消费价格指数波动的影响研究

近年来我国居民消费价格指数波动幅度较大，通胀和紧缩压力交替出现，宏观经济调控难度逐渐加大. 公路客运价格是测算居民消费价格指数的基础指标之一，本文通过建立居民消费价格分类指数对总指数的贡献度模型，定量测算公路客运价格对居民消费价格指数波动的贡献程度. 测算结果表明, 交通指数对居民消费价格指数贡献较大且增长较快，从2002年的4.44%增长到2007年的7.47%，与我国私人汽车保有量快速增长的发展趋势相一致，而长途汽车价格指数对居民消费价格指数的贡献度比较小且波动不大，基本维持在2.41%左右，较好地起到了平抑消费价格指数上涨的作用.

Contribution Rate of Highway Passenger Transportation Price to Consumer Price Index

Due to the alternate inflation and deflation pressure caused by the fluctuation of consumer price index, it has imposed more difficulty in the control of macro economy. Highway passenger transportation price is one of the basic indexes in determining the consumer price index, and in this article the contribution of highway passenger transportation price to the consumer price index is analyzed quantitatively by building a contribution degree model. The analysis shows that traffic index contributes a lot to the consumer price index and increases gradually, from 4.44% in 2002 to 7.47% in 2007, consistent with the trend of increasing private car possession; while long distance bus price index contributes less and keeps a stable level of 2.41% or so thus playing an important role in maintaining the consumer price index.