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为了评价冰雪环境对公路网运行质量的影响,以便及时制定相应的管理对策将冰雪灾害的影响降到最低,提出了应用交通运行可靠度评价公路运行质量的方法,并以行程时间作为评价指标.以黑龙江省的干线公路网为研究对象，根据实测数据验证了降雪情况下路段的行程时间符合正态分布的特性.应用可靠性理论和概率与数理统计理论建立了路段可靠度计算模型，根据路面磨擦系数与行程时间的关系，提出了行程时间的阈值和判定冰雪灾害发生的标准.根据黑龙江省干道网的布局，建立了路径和路网可靠度的分析方法，并应用实例验证了本方法的可行性.

Reliability Research of Traffic Operation for Artery Network under Snow Conditions

To evaluate the influence of snow on highway traffic operation,and thus to make corresponding management strategies to effectively decrease the influence,the paper presents the traffic operation reliability and selects travel time as the evaluation index.Regarding the artery network in Heilongjiang province of China as the object,the travel time in segments of highway is proved to follow the normal distribution based on the field data.The reliability model of segment is developed by the reliability theory,Probability and mathematical statistics theory.And the threshold value of the evaluation index of the travel time is given based on the relationship between friction coefficient and travel time.Then,a assessment criterion whether the snow disaster will happen is put forward.Considering the layout of the artery network in Heilongjiang province of China,the analyzing method of reliability for the route and the highway net is established.In the last section,the feasibility of the method is verified by an example.