基于生长曲线函数的货车运营环节碳达峰研究

货车是我国大气环境污染的重要来源之一，也是影响我国碳达峰总体目标实现的重要因 素。本文从货车运营环节入手，在运用生长曲线函数对货车保有量进行预测的基础上，对不同类 型货车的保有量和单车碳排放变化进行研究，并从货车节能技术发展、新能源货车推广和应用进 程两方面入手，分3种情景对货车运营环节中产生的碳排放总量趋势进行预判，推演货车运营环 节的碳达峰时间。研究结果表明，只有同时加快货车节能技术发展以及新能源货车推广和应用 进程，货车运营环节中产生的碳排放总量规模才能得到有效抑制并逐渐减少。若到 2030 年货 车单车燃料消耗水平较 2019 年降低 20%以上，新能源货车在货车整体保有量中的占比达到 20%，到 2060 年货车单车燃料消耗水平较 2019 年降低 50%，新能源货车占比达到 50%，则货车 运营环节碳达峰时间将缩短至2030年左右实现，2030年后货车运营环节产生的碳排放总量规 模将逐渐减少。

Process of Peak Carbon Emissions of Trucks During Operating Activities Based on Growth Curve Function

Trucks powered by traditional fuels are the major resources of air pollution. Carbon emission reduction by truck operations is important to the realization of the goal of peak carbon emissions in China. Focusing on the truck emissions during operating activities, this paper studies the process of peak carbon emissions of trucks based on the prediction of truck ownership and single truck carbon emission. Under the different development paces of energysaving technologies and the development process of new energy powered trucks, three prediction scenarios of truck carbon emissions are included. The results show that only by simultaneously promoting the development of trucks' energy-saving technologies and new energy trucks, the total amount of carbon emissions during truck operations can be gradually reduced. Moreover, to achieve the peak of carbon emissions of trucks before 2030, the following should be satisfied: the fuel consumption of a single truck is reduced by more than 20% in 2030 compared with 2019, and the registered new energy trucks account for over 20%; and the fuel consumption level of a single truck is reduced by 50% in 2060 compared with 2019 and the registered new energy trucks account for over 50% of all registered trucks. Thus, the total carbon emissions during truck operations will gradually decrease after 2030.