基于累积前景理论的城际列车分时定价研究

城际客流具有时段分布不均衡特点，表现为高峰时段一票难求而低峰时段客座率低。为均衡客流、提高城际高铁收益，选取客运通道内不同时段车次进行差别定价。考虑旅客选择行为的差异性和有限理性，采用潜在类别分析对旅客进行分类，选取票价和时段价值两个影响因素， 建立双参照点的旅客平行车次产品效用模型，以累积前景值刻画异质旅客对平行车次的出行效用。基于累积前景值构建以铁路企业收益最大，旅客广义出行费用最小的分时定价双层规划模型，设计基于灵敏度分析的启发式算法求解。最后以南宁-北海为例对高峰、非高峰时段平行列车进行实例分析，结果表明，本文提出的分时定价方法能提升收益约2.5%，且高峰、非高峰时段的客流更加均衡。

Intercity Train Time-sharing Pricing Based on Cumulative Prospect Theory

Intercity passenger flow is characterized by an uneven temporal distribution, which leads to insufficient capacity during peak periods and a low seating rate during non-peak periods. To balance the passenger flow and improve the income of the intercity high-speed railway, differential pricing in the passenger corridor is set in different periods. In this paper, the limited rational choice behavior of passengers is considered, and the cumulative prospect value is used to describe the travel utility value of passengers to parallel trains. Considering the difference and bounded rationality of passengers' choice behavior, the latent class analysis is used for passenger classification. By selecting two influencing factors of fare and period value, a product utility model is established for parallel passenger trains with double reference points, and the travel utility is described using the cumulative prospect value of heterogeneous passengers on parallel trains. Based on the cumulative prospect value, a time-sharing pricing bi-level programming model with the maximum profit of railway enterprises. and the minimum generalized travel cost of passengers is constructed. A heuristic algorithm based on sensitivity analysis is designed to solve the model. Finally, the NanningBeihai railway is taken as an example to analyze the peak and non-peak hours. The results show that the proposed timesharing pricing method can increase revenue by about 2.5%, which makes the passenger flow distributed more evenly.