Does tourism degrade environmental quality? A comparative study of Eastern and Western European Union

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of tourism on economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions in Eastern and Western European Union (EU) countries by incorporating FDI and trade in the production and CO₂ emission functions. We apply panel econometric techniques which account for cross-sectional dependence and heterogeneity. The results of Westerlund panel cointegration test confirm a long-run equilibrium relationship among the variables. Results from long-run elasticities suggest that tourism stimulates economic growth in Eastern and Western EU countries. However, tourism increases CO₂ emissions in Eastern EU but decreases in Western EU. This indicates that tourism has an adverse effect on the environment in Eastern EU. Finally, short-run heterogeneous panel causality test results suggest that tourism causes CO₂ emissions in Eastern EU while economic growth and CO₂ emissions cause tourism in Western EU. Overall, our findings suggest that tourism plays an important role in accelerating economic growth; however, its role on CO₂ emissions largely depends on the adaptation of sustainable tourism policies and efficient management.     

What is the market potential of plug-in electric vehicles as commercial passenger cars? A case study from Germany

Commercial passenger cars are a possible early market segment for plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs). Compared to privately owned vehicles, the commercial vehicle segment is characterized by higher mileage and a higher share of vehicle sales in Germany. To this point, there are only few studies which analyze the commercial passenger car sector and arrive at contradictory results due to insufficient driving profile data with an observation period of only one day. Here, we calculate the market potential of PEVs for the German commercial passenger car sector by determining the technical and economical potential for PEVs in 2020 from multi-day driving profiles. We find that commercial vehicles are better suited for PEVs than private ones since they show higher average annual mileage and drive more regularly. About 87% of the analyzed three-week vehicle profiles can technically be fulfilled by battery electric vehicles (BEVs) with an electric driving range of about 110 km while plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) with an electric range of 40 km could obtain an electric driving share of 60% on average. In moderate energy price scenarios, PEVs can reach a market share of 2–4% in the German commercial passenger car sales by 2020 and especially the large commercial branches (Trade, Manufacturing, Administrative services and Other services) are important. However, our analysis shows a high sensitivity of results to energy and battery prices as well as electric consumptions.     

Forecasting Freight Flows

Trade patterns and transport markets are changing as a result of the growth and globalization of international trade, and forecasting future freight flow has to rely on trade forecasts. Forecasting freight flows is critical for matching infrastructure supply to demand and for assessing investment. This article models long-term dynamic physical trade flows and estimates a dynamic panel data model for foreign trade for the EU15 and two countries from the EFTA (European Free Trade Association) 1967–2002. The analysis suggests that a dynamic three-way-effects gravity equation is the best-fitted econometric model. The analysis uses a structural relationship to explain the structure of the exchange of the goods—a relationship that can be used in the year of forecast. This article also provides a new methodology for converting monetary aggregates into quantity aggregates. The resulting commodity growth rates constitute a valuable input to freight models for forecasting future capacity problems.     

Willingness-to-pay for infrastructure investments for alternative fuel vehicles

This study investigates potential demand for infrastructure investment for alternative fuel vehicles by applying stated preference methods to a Japanese sample. The potential demand is estimated on the basis of how much people are willing to pay for alternative fuel vehicles under various refueling scenarios. Using the estimated parameters, the economic efficiency of establishing battery-exchange stations for electric vehicles is examined. The results indicate that infrastructural development of battery-exchange stations can be efficient when electric vehicle sales exceed 5.63% of all new vehicle sales. Further, we find a complementary relationship between the cruising ranges of alternative fuel vehicles and the infrastructure established.     

The endogeneity of OECD gasoline taxes: Evidence from pair-wise,heterogeneous panel long-run causality tests

Despite the current interest in using fuel taxes as an instrument for climate policy, there has been little study of current automotive fuel tax regimes. We expand on two earlier cross-sectional studies on why fuel taxes differ across countries by using OECD panel data and employing heterogeneous panel cointegration and long-run panel Granger-causality techniques. We confirm some of those earlier studies’ conclusions. Further, we find that governments that rely on consumption-based taxes for revenues will have higher gasoline tax rates (than governments that rely on income and wealth/property-based taxes). But more significantly, we determine that higher gasoline demand among consumers “causes” democratic governments to set lower gasoline taxes—a finding with important implications for today’s climate/energy policy debate.     

Vehicle type choice under the influence of a tax reform and rising fuel prices

Differentiated vehicle taxes are considered by many a useful tool for promoting environmentally friendly vehicles. Various structures have been implemented in several countries, e.g. Ireland, France, The Czech Republic, and Denmark. In many countries the tax reforms have been followed by a steep change in new vehicle purchases toward more diesel vehicles and more fuel-efficient vehicles. The paper analyses to what extent a vehicle tax reform similar to the Danish 2007 reform may explain changes in purchasing behaviour. The paper investigates the effects of a tax reform, fuel price changes, and technological development on vehicle type choice using a mixed logit model. The model allows a simulation of the effect of car price changes that resemble those induced by the tax reform. This effect is compared to the effects of fuel price changes and technology improvements. The simulations show that the effect of the tax reform on fuel efficiency is similar to the effect of rising fuel prices while the effect of technological development is much larger. The conclusion is that while the tax reform appeared in the same year as a large increase in fuel efficiency, it seems likely that it only explains a small part of the shift in fuel efficiency that occurred and that the main driver was the technological development.     

Car fuel-type choice under travel demand management and economic incentives

Future levels of vehicle air pollution in urban areas will depend on the proportion of new car buyers who opt for less polluting vehicles, as these appear on the market. This paper examines the factors likely to influence the demand for lower emission and zero emission vehicles. Using a discrete choice experiment, suburban driver commuters choose between three types of vehicle, one conventional, one fuel-efficient and one electric. Each is characterized by varying vehicle cost and performance measures, range and refueling rates, and commuting costs and times. The latter are manipulated to determine how their use as economic instruments might influence vehicle choice. All cost and time variables are expressed as ratios of the respondent’s current situation. Parameters of a multinomial discrete choice model are used in a choice simulator to estimate the average choice probability of each type of vehicle under different scenarios reflecting possible future relative vehicle prices and performance levels as well as differential commuting costs and times based on policies aimed at encouraging the purchase of cleaner vehicles. The evidence is that the latter economic instruments will have modest effects on vehicle choice. By contrast there would be a large shift of demand to cleaner and zero-emission vehicles provided their cost and performance came within an acceptable range of conventional vehicles.     

Analysis of a cooperative variable speed limit system using microscopic traffic simulation

Variable speed limit systems where variable message signs are used to show speed limits adjusted to the prevailing road or traffic conditions are installed on motorways in many countries. The objectives of variable speed limit system installations are often to decrease the number of accidents and to increase traffic efficiency. Currently, there is an interest in exploring the potential of cooperative intelligent transport systems including communication between vehicles and/or vehicles and the infrastructure. In this paper, we study the potential benefits of introducing infrastructure to vehicle communication, autonomous vehicle control and individualized speed limits in variable speed limit systems. We do this by proposing a cooperative variable speed limit system as an extension of an existing variable speed limit system. In the proposed system, communication between the infrastructure and the vehicles is used to transmit variable speed limits to upstream vehicles before the variable message signs become visible to the drivers. The system is evaluated by the means of microscopic traffic simulation. Traffic efficiency and environmental effects are considered in the analysis. The results of the study show benefits of the infrastructure to vehicle communication, autonomous vehicle control and individualized speed limits for variable speed limit systems in the form of lower acceleration rates and thereby harmonized traffic flow and reduced exhaust emissions.     

Analysis of equilibrium automobile holdings in Israel with aggregate discrete choice models

Models of household vehicle ownership decisions do not suffice as a basis for forecasting the size and composition of aggregate vehicle holdings. Forecasting applications require that such models be imbedded in systems describing the operation of the automobile market. This paper presents a new model of short run equilibrium in the automobile market. The short run is a period within which new car designs and prices are fixed but used car prices adjust competitively to market forces. The magnitude and mix of new car sales, the extent of used car scrappage and the composition of used car holdings are determined in equilibrium with used car prices. An econometric version of the market model has been estimated on Israeli data and applied to analyze the impact of vehicle tax policy on automobile holdings in Israel. The paper describes this application.     

China’s electric car frustrations

By 2020, the vehicle population in China will likely exceed 280 million—exacerbating national energy security, urban air pollution, and traffic congestion. In response, many local and regional governments in China are pursuing an expanding array of measures to restrain growth in personal vehicle ownership and, along with the central government, reducing emissions and energy use of vehicles. One prominent strategy is the promotion of new energy vehicles, especially plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs). Large subsidies were offered—up to $27,600 (171,000 RMB) per vehicle in some regions, including almost $9200 (57,000 RMB) from the central government—which suggests that China is making a major commitment to PEVs. But sales have been meager. In 2013, only 17,600 PEVs, mostly buses and utility trucks, were sold, less than 0.1% of total civilian vehicle sales. Several factors explain the failure of PEV sales to take off: (1) protectionism by local governments; (2) uncertainty over which electric-drive vehicle technologies to promote and what consumers are willing to pay, (3) lagging investments in charging infrastructure, and (4) conservative investment behavior by automakers and battery manufacturers. The central government issued directives to local governments in late 2013 to reduce barriers to out-of-town companies, resulting in modest sales increases in early 2014, but a more coherent, broader, and effective set of policies, incentives, and strategies are needed to overcome consumer and industry resistance and the lack of charging infrastructure.     

Evaluation of energy consumption of vehicles in EU Trans-European Transport Network

The paper presents the results of field tests evaluating energy consumption in the vehicles of Trans-European Transport Network (TEN-T) of selected EU countries: Poland, Germany and France. The energy consumption of vehicles in a highway system was assessed based on the telemetry analysis systems for traction parameters, tachograph record of digital speed waveform and their statistical analysis. The empirical cumulative distribution functions of speed transitions (acceleration, deceleration) were used to determine the kinetic energy losses of the vehicle (fuel consumption). To assess the statistical significance of differences between cumulative distribution functions the Smirnov–Kolmogorov test was used.     

Charge timing choice behavior of battery electric vehicle users

This paper aims to examine choice behavior in respect of the time at which battery electric vehicle users charge their vehicles. The focus is on normal charging after the last trip of the day, and the alternatives presented are no charging, charging immediately after arrival, nighttime charging, and charging at other times. A mixed logit model with unobserved heterogeneity is applied to panel data extracted from a two-year field trial on battery electric vehicle usage in Japan. Estimation results, obtained using separate models for commercial and private vehicles, suggest that state of charge, interval in days before the next travel day, and vehicle-kilometers to be traveled on the next travel day are the main predictors for whether a user charges the vehicle or not, that the experience of fast charging negatively affects normal charging, and that users tend to charge during the nighttime in the latter half of the trial. On the other hand, the probability of normal charging after the last trip of a working day is increased for commercial vehicles, while is decreased for private vehicles. Commercial vehicles tend not to be charged when they arrival during the nighttime, while private vehicles tend to be charged immediately. Further, the correlations of nighttime charging with charging immediately and charging at other times reveal that it may be possible to encourage charging during off-peak hours to lessen the load on the electricity grid. This finding is supported by the high variance for the alternative of nighttime charging.     

Australian private-vehicle fleet changes on register and on road, 1971–1982

Despite stagnation in new-vehicle sales from the mid 1970s, both the size and total usage made of the Australian stock of cars and station wagons continued to grow unabated into the early 1980s. Such apparently contradictory trends were an international phenomena, as were increased sourcing of vehicles from Japanese manufacturers, and the experience of less than favourable economic and demographic conditions. This paper looks at the factors behind the movements noted, and attempts to assess to what extent the “downsizing” phenomena observed overseas was encountered in Australia. Increasing vehicle life expectancy and an initially favourable age structure were found to account for contradictory growth rates in new registrations and the vehicle stock, while increased lifetime utilisation of light/medium vehicles accounted for much of the increase observed in total distance travelled. Only a weak downsizing trend was detected commencing circa 1979, its weakness reflecting an unexpected trend away from light vehicles. Projections indicate that if levels of, and size patterns associated with, new-vehicle registrations persist, downsizing trends will continue to be weak, and overall stock growth rates are likely to slow, although stagnation is unlikely by 1990.     

Forecasting automobile demand using disaggregate choice models

This paper presents a simulation model of the American automobile market. The simulation model combines a disaggregate model of household automobile number and type choice with an econometric model of used vehicle scrappage and simple models of new car supply. For fixed vehicle designs, consumer and producer interactions determine new car sales, used car scrappage and consumer vehicle holdings. The model allows automobiles to be highly differentiated and consumers to be heterogeneous. Short-run equilibrium is defined as supply equal to demand for every vehicle type during each market period. The automobile stock then evolves slowly as new vehicles are added and old vehicles are removed during each period. An empirical application of the simulation model with 12 consumer groups and 131 vehicle types is used to forecast automobile holdings. A base case scenario is run for 1978–1984 and compared with the observed market behavior during this period. Several other simulations are then run comparing different gasoline price scenarios with the base case for 1984–1990.     

我国商用车电动化发展趋势分析

发展新能源汽车发展是缓解能源危机和环境污染的重大战略举措,也是汽车产业升级必由之路。近几年在政策大力支持下,新能源汽车产业突飞猛进,尤其乘用车领域,涌现出大批优秀企业与产品,市场化趋势明显。但是在商用车领域,新能源汽车发展受政策影响明显,随着补贴政策的退坡,规模有所萎缩。从全球大环境和国内环境来看,未来商用车领域电动化存在很大的发展空间。本文从市场现状切入,结合新能源汽车发展政策环境,运用SWOT方法分析我国商用车电动化发展趋势。     

An analysis of the effects of French vehicle inspection program and grant for scrappage on household vehicle transaction

The French government has implemented a periodical vehicle inspection program, which aims at maintaining proper functioning of the vehicle and ensuring the emissions control systems installed on the vehicle work properly. Also, an incentive program for scrapping old vehicles was introduced in 1994 through 1996 to promote the replacement of those vehicles with higher emissions by newer vehicles with lower emissions. A hazard-based duration model of household vehicle transaction behavior has been developed in this study to examine the effects of the inspection program and the grant for scrappage on vehicle transaction timing. The model is developed as a competing risks model assuming the following three types of competing risks: replacing one of the vehicles in the household fleet, disposing of one vehicle in the fleet, and acquiring one vehicle to add to the fleet. The empirical analysis is carried out using the panel data of French households' vehicle ownership from 1984 to 1998, obtained by the panel survey called Parc-Auto, which has been conducted by a French marketing firm, SOFRES, since 1976. The long panel observation period facilitates the introduction of macro-economic indicators into the model, enabling the analysis to distinguish the effects of policy measures from macro-economic factors. The empirical results indicate that the expected vehicle holding duration becomes 1.3 years longer under the inspection program than before the program commenced, given that the vehicle is replaced by another vehicle at the end of the holding duration; and that the conditional probability of replacing a vehicle aged 10 years and over becomes 1.2 times higher, and the average holding duration becomes shorter by 3.3 years, when the grant for scrappage is available.     

Electric versus conventional vehicles: social costs and benefits in France

This article compares the social costs of electric vehicles with those of conventional, thermal vehicles for typical passenger use in the Ile-de-France region (Greater Paris), a case of particular interest because nearly 80% of the electricity is generated by nuclear power plants. A four-seat electric car is compared to a new conventional car of the same make and model; for the latter both the gasoline and the diesel version are considered because almost half of new car sales in France are diesel. These results are also compared to typical existing diesel and gasoline vehicles in the current French fleet. The methodology developed by the ExternE (External Costs of Energy) Project of the European Commission is used to estimate the costs associated with atmospheric pollution due to power plants, refineries and tail pipe emissions. Our discussion of externalities is limited to air pollution thus excluding others such as costs associated with noise or accidents. Our results imply that the external costs are large and significant, even when one considers the uncertainties. If internalized by government regulations, these externalities can render the total cost of an electric vehicle more competitive with that of currently available thermal vehicles in large urban centers if the electricity is produced by sources with low pollution. However, the current generation electric vehicles are so expensive that internalization of pollution damage would not give it a very clear advantage.     

Modeling the impact of parking price policy on free-floating carsharing: Case study for Zurich,Switzerland

The research on carsharing has already shown that a non-negligible part of carsharing members give up a vehicle after joining a carsharing program, or avoid a vehicle purchase. This arguably reduces overall parking space needed. This might well be one of the most important impacts of a carsharing program on the transportation system, but also one of the least researched. The rapid diffusion of free-floating carsharing, which for its very nature might have a stronger impact on parking, makes the relationship between carsharing and parking an appealing topic for new research. This work presents a method for the investigation of this relationship using an agent-based simulation and explores the impacts of different parking prices on the demand for free-floating carsharing in the city of Zurich, Switzerland. Three levels of free-floating fleet-size in the city of Zurich coupled with three levels of parking prices were simulated. The obtained results show that free-floating vehicles are able to use parking spaces more efficiently than private vehicles. Moreover, the average parking occupancy tends to be more homogeneous with higher fleet-size of free-floating carsharing and with the increase of parking prices, thus avoiding spatial parking pressure peaks.     

Public charging infrastructure for plug-in electric vehicles: What is it worth?

Lack of charging infrastructure is an important barrier to the growth of the plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) market. Public charging infrastructure has tangible and intangible value, such as reducing range anxiety or building confidence in the future of the PEV market. Quantifying the value of public charging infrastructure can inform analysis of investment decisions and can help predict the impact of charging infrastructure on future PEV sales. Estimates of willingness to pay (WTP) based on stated preference surveys are limited by consumers’ lack of familiarity with PEVs. As an alternative, we focus on quantifying the tangible value of public PEV chargers in terms of their ability to displace gasoline use for PHEVs and to enable additional electric (e−) vehicle miles for BEVs, thereby mitigating the limitations of shorter range and longer recharging time. Simulation studies provide data that can be used to quantify e-miles enabled by public chargers and the value of additional e-miles can be inferred from econometric estimates of WTP for increased vehicle range. Functions are synthesized that estimate the WTP for public charging infrastructure by plug-in hybrid and battery electric vehicles, conditional on vehicle range, annual vehicle travel, pre-existing charging infrastructure, energy prices, vehicle efficiency, and household income. A case study based on California’s public charging network in 2017 indicates that, to the purchaser of a new BEV with a 100-mile range and home recharging, existing public fast chargers are worth about $1500 for intraregional travel, and fast chargers along intercity routes are valued at over $6500.     

Who will buy electric vehicles? Identifying early adopters in Germany

Electric vehicles (EVs) have noteworthy potential to reduce global and local emissions and are expected to become a relevant future market for vehicle sales. Both policy makers and car manufacturers have an interest to understand the first large EV user group, frequently referred to as ‘early adopters’. However, there are only a few empirical results available for this important group. In this paper, we analyse and discuss several empirical data sets from Germany, characterising this user group from both a user and a product perspective, i.e. who is willing to buy an EV and who should buy one. Our results show that the most likely group of private EV buyers in Germany are middle-aged men with technical professions living in rural or suburban multi-person households. They own a large share of vehicles in general, are more likely to profit from the economical benefits of these vehicles due to their annual vehicle kilometres travelled and the share of inner-city driving. They state a higher willingness to buy electric vehicles than other potential adopter groups and their higher socio-economic status allows them to purchase EVs. In contrast to this, inhabitants of major cities are less likely to buy EVs since they form a small group of car owners in general, their mileage is too low for EVs to pay off economically and they state lower interest and lower willingness to pay for EVs than other groups. Our results indicate that transport policy promoting EVs should focus on middle-aged men with families from rural and sub-urban cities as first private EV buyers.