金属再结晶Monte Carlo Potts模拟新模型

基于金属再结晶理论和实验基础,对现有再结晶Monte Carlo Potts模型中形核模型、储存能分布描述、结点再取向转换概率公式进行改进,建立了二维再结晶Monte Carlo Potts模型,并将之应用于高纯铝冷轧后等温再结晶退火过程模拟。结果表明,新模型有效地模拟了再结晶非均匀形核、新晶粒生长等微观组织演变过程,模拟的形核顺序、形核率曲线与再结晶理论、实验结果一致,再结晶动力学曲线与JAMK理论一致,Avrami指数nav小于理论预测值2,与实验结果一致。     

金属再结晶组织模拟及实验对比研究

金属再结晶过程计算机组织模拟,可以仿真实验中观测不到的组织演变细节,得到定量的特征参数,预报退火后的材料性能,指导热处理工艺设计。构建一个新的静态再结晶MC Potts模拟模型,并以1060铝合金为研究对象,进行再结晶模拟与实验对比研究。结果表明,1060铝合金表现出明显的再结晶特征,得到了近似等轴晶组织;新模型模拟的再结晶形核位置、组织形貌与实验结果一致,组织演变过程也与实验结果基本一致,但模拟的再结晶等轴晶与实验近似等轴晶不完全一致,模拟的再结晶速度也低于实验结果。     

金属再结晶组织模拟及实验对比研究

金属再结晶过程计算机组织模拟,可以仿真实验中观测不到的组织演变细节,得到定量的特征参数,预报退火后的材料性能,指导热处理工艺设计。构建一个新的静态再结晶MC Potts模拟模型,并以1060铝合金为研究对象,进行再结晶模拟与实验对比研究。结果表明,1060铝合金表现出明显的再结晶特征,得到了近似等轴晶组织;新模型模拟的再结晶形核位置、组织形貌与实验结果一致,组织演变过程也与实验结果基本一致,但模拟的再结晶等轴晶与实验近似等轴晶不完全一致,模拟的再结晶速度也低于实验结果。     

Computer simulation of the continuous annealing recrystallization for cold-rolled strip in galvanizing line

The continuous heating transformation program is developed to investigate the influence of continuous annealing technological parameters on recrystalization for cold-rolled strip in galvanizing line. This program can be used for the calculation of the continuous annealing temperature field of strip steel, determination of the start and end time of recrystallization in continuous heating process, and procurement of the continuous heating transformation diagram. The temperature field for continuous annealing is simulated by means of finite difference method. Based on the Scheil superposition principle, the continuous heating transformation curve is obtained by using time temperature transformation (TTT) curve which is measured experimentally. The developed program has been used in practice, and the strip speed on production line increases by more than 10%.     

Research on Equipment Support Activity Process Simulation Based on Monte Carlo Method

The influencing factors of the equipment support activity process have the characteristics of nonlinearity, high dimension, many constraints, random uncertainty and fuzzy uncertainty. Monte Carlo method can solve the above problems commendably. This paper analyzes the main equipment support activity process and establishes the sampling plan and simulation model of the medium maintenance process based on Monte Carlo method, and the simulation result verifies a fact that the medium maintenance time can be effectively reduced when parallel operation on some procedures is used. It has a practical value and can give good advice to achieve the capability of equipment supportability.     

双重不确定下应急物资多式联运可靠路径优化

为按时、可靠地将应急物资运达目的地，综合考虑需求和运输环境的双重不确定性、节点疫情感染风险、成本约束、班期限制和转运能力限制等，构建以可靠度最大为目标的应急物资多式联运可靠路径优化模型。同时针对所求问题的NP-难特点，设计蒙特卡洛自适应遗传算法和模拟退火遗传算法进行求解，并引入优劣解距离法对算例的运行结果进行分析。研究结果表明：蒙特卡洛自适应遗传算法较模拟退火遗传算法在求解质量和求解时间方面更优，在交叉概率为0.80，变异概率为0.08，种群大小为50的最佳参数组合下，得到的优化路径最大可靠度为85%，且求解出来的最优路线均未经过存在疫情感染风险的节点，求解结果较好。参数分析表明：在交叉概率相同的条件下，两种算法的平均运行时间均随着变异概率的降低而减少，随着变异概率的增加而增加；多式联运路径优化的决策会受水铁班期的影响。     

Ising动力系统模拟收益率的多重分形分析

应用Ising模型和平均场理论构造符合股市收益率的动力系统,借助于计算机软件Mat-lab,利用蒙特卡洛模拟方法,通过调整参数模拟得出动力系统的收益率序列.分析发现：Ising动力系统构造的收益率同证券市场股票指数波动率一样具有厚尾等统计特征.对模拟收益率原序列和混洗后的序列进行多重分形分析,得出了模拟收益率序列存在分布多重分形和相关性多重分形的结论.     

蒙特卡洛法在求解空气隙膜蒸馏数学模型中的应用

对空气隙膜蒸馏建立数学计算模型，并首次采用蒙特卡洛法对膜蒸馏数学模型求解．理论计算蒸馏通量与实验结果吻合较好，表明采用的数学模拟及计算方法是可行的，对预测空气隙膜蒸馏通量进行有价值的探讨．     

基于Monte Carlo法的山区路网应急中心选址

阐述了灾时山区路网各路段组成单元通行概率的分析方法,采用Monte Carlo模拟法对山区路网连通可靠度进行分析和计算,并通过概率解析法来检验Monte Carlo模拟法的计算精度。采用Monte Carlo模拟法分析路网节点间连通可靠度,提出了灾时山区路网应急救护中心优化选址方法。最后,通过实例阐述其计算过程。结果表明:采用Monte Carlo模拟法分析山区路网交通节点间的连通可靠度,找出灾时山区路网连通薄弱环节,为山区应急救护中心优化选址提供依据。     

基于Monte Carlo法的山区路网应急中心选址

阐述了灾时山区路网各路段组成单元通行概率的分析方法,采用Monte Carlo模拟法对山区路网连通可靠度进行分析和计算,并通过概率解析法来检验Monte Carlo模拟法的计算精度.采用Monte Carlo模拟法分析路网节点间连通可靠度,提出了灾时山区路网应急救护中心优化选址方法.最后,通过实例阐述其计算过程.结果表...     

Viscous micropump simulation by particle/continuum methods

A novel viscous micropump consisting of a cylindrical rotor eccentrically placed inside a microchannel is simulated by the two Volume-CAD (V-CAD) framework-based flow solvers, i.e., the direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) package (named as V-DSMC) and the Navier-Stoke solver (named as V-Flow). V-DSMC is used in the case of the pump applied to gas, while V-Flow is applied to model the pump in the case of liquid working medium. The pumping performance curves under different liquid media with the variation of Reynolds number, as well as under different eccentricity factors are obtained. The performance and the flow filed characteristics are very sensitive to the tangential momentum accommodation coefficient in the case of gas medium. Three recirculations exist in the flow field, and the sizes of recirculation are different at the different operating points in a performance curve.     

一种机动目标的自适应跟踪算法

通过分析"当前"统计模型采取固定机动加速度最大值在目标跟踪中的不足,引入模糊逻辑技术,提出了一种基于"当前"统计模型的自适应跟踪算法.该算法实现了目标机动加速度最大值随机动特性的自适应调整,从而实现了系统状态噪声方差的自适应调整,提高了系统的跟踪性能.对两种典型的目标机动形式进行了Monte Carlo仿真研究,结果表明了新算法对于解决机动目标跟踪问题的有效性.     

氮合金化HRB500E钢的静态再结晶行为试验研究

为了对相关热轧工艺制度的确定提供必要的理论依据,采用应力松弛法研究了氮合金化HRB500E钢的静态再结晶行为,运用Gleeble-1500D热模拟试验机分析了不同的应变量、应变温度、应变速率对试验钢静态再结晶的影响,并与普通的钒微合金化HRB500E钢进行了对比. 依据试验结果,以Avrami 方程为基础,建立了两种试验钢的静态再结晶动力学模型,并进行了静态再结晶分数曲线与模型预测值的对比检验. 研究结果表明,控制两种试验钢的应变量在0.4～1.0区间递增,应变温度在950～1 100 ℃范围内递增,应变速率在0.1～1.0 s?1范围内递增时,其t_0.5值（再结晶完成50%所需要的时间）均分别随之减少,再结晶速度加快;其中,应变量及应变温度对试验钢静态再结晶的影响较为显著,应变速率次之. 在应变条件相同的情况下,氮合金化HRB500E钢静态再结晶进程滞后于钒微合金化HRB500E钢. 检验结果表明,两种试验钢静态再结晶动力学模型预测结果与试验结果较吻合.      

基于HAM的汽车乘员约束系统多参数优化

针对汽车乘员约束系统高度非线性且难于求解最优值的特点,提出全局敏感性分析结合混合元模型的优化方法,通过蒙特卡罗模拟在整个设计空间内采样,以元模型代替仿真模型来完成设计参数的敏感性分析,并将分析获得的信息用于混合元模型优化（hybrid and adaptive metamodeling method,HAM）,将二阶多项式响应面、Kriging模型、径向基函数三种元模型有机结合,自适应选择最佳的元模型进行寻优.搜索过程中元模型不断更新与重建,逐渐提高关键区域的精度,从而快速寻找到全局最优解.对某工程实例的优化结果表明该方法是有效的.     

A stochastic concession model for infrastructure projects under build-operate-transfer schemes

Concession period is a key factor in the arrangement of a build-operate-transfer (BOT) contract. This paper proposes a stochastic concession period model for infrastructure projects under a BOT scheme, which takes into account the impact of risks and the risk attitudes of the private investor and the government. A hypothetical case is simulated by using the Monte Carlo simulation method to illustrate the proposed model. The results indicate that even for a project with the same estimations, the concession interval can be different and depends a lot on the risk attitudes of the private investor and the government. The proposed model provides a more reasonable concession interval based on which a specific concession period can be obtained through negotiation between the two parties.     

抗震结构时程可靠度的遗传模拟退火算法

针对抗震结构时程可靠度分析中功能函数为非线性程度较高的隐式函数的特点，将遗传模拟退火算法与时程分析法相结合，建立了抗震结构时程可靠度分析的遗传模拟退火算法．该算法可以充分考虑结构参数和地震动的双重随机性，可确定任意时刻结构的时程可靠指标．用此方法及Monte Callo法分析了分别受大震和小震作用的三质点钢筋混凝土结构的时程可靠度，结果表明了该方法的有效性．     

基于蒙特卡罗模拟的交通状态辨识

提出了一种基于蒙特卡罗模拟的利用交通流参数实现交通状态辨识的方法.采 用 FANNY 算法实现了四种交通状态的聚类分析;利用蒙特卡罗模拟方法建立了 SVC 交 通状态辨识模型;分别构建了固定窗口模型和滑动窗口模型对交通状态进行辨识并综合 评价.分析结果表明：该方法能够对实时交通流参数进行准确辨识,尤其是构建的滑动窗 口模型,对交通状态辨识平均精度、召回率和 F 度量分别为 97.98%、94.64%和 96.21%.本方 法可为分析高速公路交通状态演化规律和发展趋势,建立预测预警、应急处置和信息发 布等应急运行机制提供科学方法和数据支撑.     

基于LJ-GCEMC的炭化木纤维滤芯超微粒子吸附模拟

炭化微米木纤维(CMWF)滤芯不但绿色环保、成本低、净化效率高,而且特有的活性炭性质使其对柴油机排放中的超微碳烟颗粒具有很强的吸附能力。分析炭化微米木纤维滤芯及柴油车排放颗粒物特性,利用混合Lennard Jones势能——巨正则系综蒙特卡罗法(混合LJ-GCEMC)模拟超微碳烟颗粒在炭化微米木纤维活性炭孔中的吸附,结果表明,CMWF滤芯的孔径范围可以确定为320⁴20 nm之间,孔径过小或过大都会阻碍积聚态粒子吸附数密度的增加;模拟结果也表明积聚态粒子吸附数密度随压力的增加而增加,而随温度的升高略有减少。     

Influence of the inverse-time protection relays on the voltage dip index

The probability-assessment analyses on the characteristic value of voltage dip by using Monte Carlo stochastic modeling method to stimulate the randomness of the short circuit fault are introduced. Using Matlab and Power Systems CAD （PSCAD）, we design control interface which combines the electromagnetic transient simulation with the Monte Carlo method. Specifically, the designing of interface which is meant to employ the method of Matlab programming to control the electromagnetic transients including direct current （EMTDC） simulation is introduced. Furthermore, the influences of the protection devices on the voltage dip to ensure the authenticity and the referential reliability are simulated. A system with the inverse-time protection devices equipped on each line which can coordinate together is designed to cut off the short-circuit fault. The voltage dip of the designed system is assessed by the pre- and post-system average root mean square （RMS） variation frequency index, and the voltage dip index is compared with the Information Technology Industry Council （IT1C） curves. The simulation results demonstrate that the inverse-time relay protection equipments are well-coordinated, and the severity and the range of the voltage dip are influenced by the cooperation of the equipped inverse-time protection devices.     

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研究混合交通网络设计问题,以交通网络总阻抗最小为目标,在建设资金的约束条件下给出了双层规划模型。将模拟退火算法中的退火策略引入到免疫克隆算法中,设计了求解模型的免疫克隆退火算法。算例验证了算法的可行性,并通过与模拟退火算法比较证明了设计算法的有效性。最后,在给定不同建设资金的约束条件下进行了灵敏度分析,并讨论了投资成本与网络总阻抗、建设资金约束与网络设计决策的关系。