基于相对差距和法的改装船舶优选

提出基于MATLAB、Microsoft SQL Server和VB. NET混合编程的相对差距和法。在民船动员的过程中,得到一个任务后,需要快速的选择一条适合的改装船舶。利用VB.NET作为程序设计语言,Microsoft SQL Server数据库存放船舶数据,MATLAB对船舶的参数进行大量的计算,结合MATLAB、Microsoft SQL Server与VB. NET这3种工具的优势,通过三者的混合编程实现利用相对差距和法快速选择改装船舶。通过实例证明该方法是可行的、快速的。     

基于知识融合的船舶能耗决策支持系统

在建立船舶能耗评价模型基础上,针对能耗影响因素众多,提出了基于知识融合的船舶能耗决策支持系统的研究。以船舶能耗为对象,应用系统辨识理论,建立重点设备能耗模型库;以方法、经验和案例为基础,建立船舶能耗知识库;融合模型库、知识库、关系数据库等多源知识,建立船舶能耗评价与决策支持系统。以实现船舶航运管理、船舶操纵控制、航线设计以及船舶设计等各个过程的决策支持。     

购建船舶与融资租赁船舶的财务决策研究

自上世纪九十年代以来 ,融资租赁船舶由于其投融资的特殊性在我国航运企业逐渐增多 ,如何进行购建船舶与融资租赁船舶的财务决策成了航运经济界探讨的一个重要问题。提出一种购建船舶与融资租赁船舶的差异现金流量财务决策方法 ,建立了在相同的财务风险条件下 ,购建与融资租赁船舶财务决策过程中租赁租金支付的盈亏平衡点公式 ,对这一盈亏平衡点公式作了进一步的论证。举例表明 ,所建立的融资租赁船舶租金支付的盈亏平衡点确定公式可以使购建船舶与融资租赁船舶的财务决策变得便捷而有效 ,对于其他行业购置与融资租赁某一资产的财务决策同样可以应用。     

A step towards risk-based decision support for ships – Evaluation of limit states using parallel system analysis

Onboard decision support systems (DSS) are used to increase the operational safety of ships. Ideally, DSS can estimate future ship responses within a time scale of the order of 1–3 h taking into account speed and course changes, assuming stationary sea states. In principle, the calculations depend on a large amount of operational and environmental parameters, which will be known only in the statistical sense. The present paper suggests a procedure to incorporate random variables and associated uncertainties in the calculations of the outcrossing rates that are the basis for risk-based DSS. The procedure is based on parallel system analysis, and the paper derives and describes the main ideas. The concept is illustrated by an example, where the limit state of a non-linear ship response is considered. The results from the parallel system analysis are in agreement with corresponding Monte Carlo simulations. However, the computational speed of the parallel system analysis proved slower than expected.     

Onboard monitoring of fatigue damage rates in the hull girder

Most new advanced ships have extensive data collection systems to be used for continuous monitoring of engine and hull performance, for voyage performance evaluation etc. Such systems could be expanded to include also procedures for stress monitoring and for decision support, where the most critical wave-induced ship extreme responses and fatigue damage accumulation can be estimated for hypothetical changes in ship course and speed in the automatically estimated wave environment.The aim of this paper is to outline a calculation procedure for fatigue damage rate prediction in hull girders taking into account whipping stresses. It is conceptually shown how such a method, which integrates onboard estimation of sea states, can be used to deduce decision support with respect to the accumulated fatigue damage in the hull girder.The paper firstly presents a set of measured full-scale wave-induced stress ranges in a container ship, where the associated fatigue damage rates calculated from a combination of the rain-flow counting method and the Palmgren-Miner damage rule are compared with damage predictions obtained from a computationally much faster frequency fatigue analysis using a spectral method. This analysis verifies the applied multi-modal spectral analysis procedure for fatigue estimation for cases where hull girder flexibility plays a role.To obtain an automated prediction method for the fatigue damage rates it is in the second part of the paper shown how a combination of the full-scale onboard acceleration and stress measurements can be used to calculate sea state parameters. These calculated environmental data are verified by a comparison to hindcast data.In the third part of the paper the full-scale fatigue stress ranges are compared to results from an analytical design oriented calculation procedure for flexible ship hulls in short-term estimated sea states.Altogether, it is conceptually shown that by a combination of the onboard estimated sea state parameters with the described analytical fatigue damage prediction procedure a method can be established for real-time onboard decision support which includes estimates of fatigue damage rates.     

e-Navigation and situation-dependent manoeuvring assistance to enhance maritime emergency response

Safe ship handling in every situation and under all prevailing circumstances of ship status and the environment is a core element contributing to the safety of the maritime transportation system. Especially in case of emergencies, there is a need for quick, accurate and reliable information to manoeuvre a ship safely. This paper focusses on investigations into enhanced response to maritime emergencies by means of onboard manoeuvring support. The research and discussions are done exemplarily for person overboard (PoB) accidents. PoB is a typical situation for application of manoeuvring assistance and decision support, e.g. in order to return quickly to the position of the accident. Based on the analysis of selected accident case studies and existing solutions representing the technical state-of-the-art, shortcomings will be identified and discussed, and a potential approach for advanced manoeuvring support in the context of e-Navigation-based requirements will be introduced and discussed.     

海上智能交通系统体系的构建与实现

海上智能交通系统构建的关键是实现船舶航行自动化和对海上交通能够实行有效的管理，从宏观角度可归结为船舶的避碰。但以往的避碰研究都对信息的交流考虑不够。基于系统的思想，我们认为把协商决策引入船舶避碰才能发挥系统整体的最佳效能，提出了建立海上智能交通系统的框架与结构体系，并探讨了其具体实现及关键技术和问题。最后对其未来发展进行展望，给出了相关建议。     

船舶避碰多Agent决策支持系统的设计

建立了一个船舶避碰(SCA)多Agent(主体)决策支持系统(SCA-MADSS),设计了SCA-MADSS的组织结构,并给出该结构的形式化描述,提出了船舶避碰联盟的概念及其构造原则,根据在避碰决策制定过程中功能的不同,分别建立了Control-Agent、Union-Agent、Ship-Agent和VTS-Agent四种智能主体模型,并重点介绍了Ship-Agent的BDI结构模型。     

智能船舶研发风险分析与控制

针对智能船舶研发的风险问题,在介绍智能船舶的概念及智能船舶特点的基础上,通过系统分析智能船舶研发的各种风险,着重从技术和财务2个方面分析风险的因素,提出风险控制的相关对策和措施,为我国企业研发智能船舶进行风险控制提供参考.     

破损舰船抗沉辅助决策系统研究

根据舰艇抗沉决策的特点,系统的建立了抗沉辅助决策的理论框架和模型,并形成了舰艇抗沉决策支持系统。探讨了抗沉决策中的限制进水蔓延与舰体平衡决策的逻辑并分别建立决策模型。把产生式专家系统的理论应用到抗沉决策支持系统中。运用VB编程建立抗沉决策支持系统,实现了舰艇的二维显示和舰艇抗沉的可视化操作。     

基于离差最大化方法的船舶操纵性综合评价

将离差最大化方法应用到船舶操纵性综合评价中,引入加权向量和规范化决策矩阵,考虑各个操纵指标的权重和规范化决策矩阵对操纵性评价的影响,建立船舶操纵性综合评价体系,阐述该方法的构造原理和操作步骤。选取两个试验船模作为评价对象,以回转角速度、相对回转直径、初转期、第一超越角和第二超越角作为操纵性评价指标,分别求取两船模的操纵性评价指标的加权向量和规范化决策矩阵,并对计算得到的综合评价指标进行了分析,其结果与船模K,T,P指数一致,可以将离差最大化方法用于船舶操纵性综合评价中。     

基于BP神经网络的客滚船营运风险评估

随着客滚船运输行业的兴起,客滚船的营运安全日益受到各方面的关注。文中利用BP神经网络评价方法,由人、船、环境、管理四要素所构成的客滚船营运风险进行评估,最终确定某客滚船具体航次的营运风险。经过验证,基于BP神经网络客滚船营运风险评估方法与实际相符,为客滚船风险评估提供一条新的途径。     

基于AHP的模糊综合评判对上海内河水域船舶航行安全的风险评估

针对目前上海内河水域的水上交通安全状况,从系统工程角度,分别从人为因素、硬件装备、软件条件和外部环境四个方面,利用层次分析法(AHP法)建立起评估模型。并运用基于AHP法的模糊综合评判原理对上海内河水域船舶航行安全风险进行了综合评估,得到了比较科学的评估结论。以此为地方海事部门制定科学合理的发展战略提供重要依据和决策支持,并制订和完善船舶航行安全的对策和措施,最大程度地减少船舶航行事故的发生。     

舰船损管智能化的技术途径分析

损管智能化是舰船装备信息化、智能化的重要组成部分。通过分析损管作业流程及其关键要素,提出损管智能化的重点是损管信息的感知获取和处理,主要技术途径是开发应用智能传感器和损管决策支持系统。从应用出发,基于专家控制技术研究设计了应对火灾的决策支持系统,并试用了部分成果。     

Artificial forces for virtual autonomous ships with encountering situations in restricted waters

ABSTRACT

Even if the same two ships operate in the same encountering situation, the actual strategies and timing of operations may be different. Therefore, the fixed collision avoidance trajectory and ship movements are no longer suitable for simulating the real ship behaviour. This paper tries to develop an artificial intelligent system that fully sensitive to the local circumstances and command a ship in virtual environment. Based on AIS (Automatic Identification System) data, this study has developed artificial forces which help decision makings on-board independently under different situations and catching the stochastic nature of ship behaviours during collision avoidances manoeuvring. Actual ship tracks are helpful for ascertaining the parameters that contribute to artificial forces in collision avoidances, while the correlation coefficient analysis is helpful to distinguish the parameters. This study will help to develop a navigation traffic simulation to reflect the realistic ship behaviour and provide reliable information for port and waterway planning, risk analysis, and mitigation measures. The method can be used in developing algorithms for autonomous ships. The method introduced in this study lays a foundation for developing artificial forces at intersections or bends, although the model is only applicable in straight channels at the moment.     

Shipma软件在港口工程设计中的应用

船舶靠离泊操纵的安全性及其通航环境影响论证是港口工程设计中必须考虑的要素,本文以某海外大型港口扩建工程项目为例,利用Shipma软件模拟船舶靠离泊和通航过程,针对平面方案量化船舶靠离泊安全条件,评估相关水域通航环境,利用该软件可以为类似项目的科学决策以及码头建成后的有效使用提供充分的依据和可靠的支撑.     

探路、开路、筑路——为创立世界修船业共生时代再出发

中国修船业在国家改革开放的浪潮中,经历了三十多年的快速发展,如今已稳居世界修船大国的国际地位,而中国修船企业正在引领世界绿色修船科技的进步,也引起了国际修船业的高度关注.然而,在人类社会生态环境面临严峻挑战的当下,作为世界贸易和港口经济重要组成部分的修船产业,如何形成发展新格局,从生态层面推进绿色、低碳、数字"一体化"...     

绿色船舶及其评价指标体系研究

随着近年来一系列更为严格的船舶防污染公约、法规的生效,船舶绿色度成为设计满足未来需求的绿色船舶的不可或缺一环。剖析绿色船舶的定义及内涵,将船舶设计阶段和废弃阶段纳入到船舶生命周期中,在全面系统地分析绿色船舶生命周期各阶段特点的基础上,构建了评价船舶绿色度的指标体系,确定了各指标的评判准则,为进一步定量评价船舶的绿色度奠定了基础,也为船舶设计和管理部门提供了参考依据。     

Ship selection using a multiple-criteria synthesis approach

A method is presented for selecting a preferred ship from a group of candidates as a reference ship for a new design. The method is based on a recently developed approach for multiple-criteria decision analysis under uncertainty, the evidential reasoning approach. Using this method, both quantitative and qualitative attributes of a complicated nature can be considered in the selection process. The method consists of three phases: identifying suitable candidate ships, evaluating them in terms of both conventional techno-economical and qualitative attributes, and aggregating all the attributes using the evidential reasoning approach. This three-phase procedure is illustrated by means of an oil tanker selection example. The results of this study show that the evidential reasoning approach can support multiple-criteria ship selection processes when both qualitative and quantitative information with or without uncertainties have to be taken into account. The outcomes generated by the method include the ranking of the candidate ships and indications of their strengths and weaknesses in the format of performance distributions over different assessment grades. Such information is vital in helping decision makers to make an informed selection and be aware of any risk implication associated with the selection.     

基于CPC和动态联盟的船舶建造系统研究

倘若按敏捷制造理论来考虑船舶建造过程,将每艘船的设计和建造过程管理视为一个项目组并以此作为盟主,则各个分段加工中心和大量的配套厂是内外盟员且可组成一个动态联盟;若多艘船同时建造,则存在多个项目的动态联盟,并形成多层次和多交叉的形态. 本文在基于CPC理念的协同平台上将船厂、客户、供应商和合作伙伴引入船舶的开发和建造过程,通过有效的协作,将质量好、全寿命成本低的船舶更快地推向市场.文中对组建船舶建造多项目动态联盟的方式及其协调机制进行了分析和研究,并用多学科分析综合的方式提出了对船舶建造系统的模式及其功能进行评价的方法,为进一步研究和探索新的造船模式提供了参考.