Numerical simulation to reliability analysis of fault-tolerant repairable system

In the traditional method for the reliability analysis of fault-tolerant system, the system structure is described by means of binary decision diagram (BDD) and Markov process, and then the reliability indexes are calculated. However, as the size of system augments, the size of state space will increase exponentially. Additionally, Markov approach requires that the failure and repair time of the components obey an exponential distribution. In this study, by combining dynamic fault tree (DFT) and numerical simulation based on the minimal sequence cut set (MSCS), a new method to evaluate reliability of fault-tolerant system with repairable components is proposed. The method presented does not depend on Markov model, so that it can effectively solve the problem of the state-space combination explosion. Moreover, it is suitable for systems whose failure and repair time obey an arbitrary distribution. Therefore, our method is more flexible than the traditional method. At last, an example is given to verify the method.     

Approximate method for reliability assessment of complex phased mission systems

Phased-mission systems (PMSs) have wide applications in engineering practices, such as manmade satellites. Certain critical parts in the system, such as cold standby, hot standby and functional standby, are designed in redundancy architecture to achieve high reliability performance. State-space models such as Markov process have been used extensively in previous studies for reliability evaluation of PMSs with dynamic behaviors. The most popular way to deal with the dynamic behaviors is Markov process, but it is well known that Markov process is limited to exponential distribution. In practice, however, the lifetime of most machinery products can follow non-exponential distributions like the Weibull distribution which cannot be handled by the Markov process. In order to solve this kind of problem, we present a semi-Markov model combined with an approximation algorithm to analyze PMS reliability subjected to non-exponential failures. Furthermore, the accuracy of the approximation algorithm is investigated by comparing to an accurate solution, and a typical PMS (attitude and orbit control system) is analyzed to demonstrate the implementation of the method.     

Reliability analysis of electrical system of computer numerical control machine tool based on bayesian networks

The core of computer numerical control (CNC) machine tool is the electrical system which controls and coordinates every part of CNC machine tool to complete processing tasks, so it is of great significance to strengthen the reliability of the electrical system. However, the electrical system is very complex due to many uncertain factors and dynamic stochastic characteristics when failure occurs. Therefore, the traditional fault tree analysis (FTA) method is not applicable. Bayesian network (BN) not only has a unique advantage to analyze nodes with multiply states in reliability analysis for complex systems, but also can solve the state explosion problem properly caused by Markov model when dealing with dynamic fault tree (DFT). In addition, the forward causal reasoning of BN can get the conditional probability distribution of the system under considering the uncertainty; the backward diagnosis reasoning of BN can recognize the weak links in system, so it is valuable for improving the system reliability.     

基于KDE及Markov的高速列车传动系振动评价及可靠性分析

为研究高速列车运行过程中传动系的振动情况及可靠性，对CRH3型高速列车传动系关键部件的振动加速度数据进行实车采集，采用核密度估计（KDE）法对采集数据统计处理，得出各关键部件在各方向上振动响应的概率密度函数近似曲线，据此对传动系的关键部件进行振动评价；通过MATLAB计算各关键部件振动加速度的最优置信区间；对传动系及传动系的关键部件定义“安全”和“故障”两种状态，建立关键部件的威布尔比例失效率模型及传动系的Markov状态转移模型，以传动系当前状态为初始状态，基于实时故障率及维修率分析传动系可靠性的变化. 研究结果表明:传动系中轴箱轴承、齿轮箱以及电机轴承的垂向振动最强，振动加速度集中分布在25倍、20倍、10倍重力加速度范围内，概率99.75%的均方差值分别在20.5026倍、17.6712倍、11.4693倍重力加速度内；计算得到各关键部件振动加速度概率为99.75%的最优置信区间，为系统的振动监测阈值优化及故障评估提供参考；故障率及维修率是影响传动系统状态概率的关键因素，当故障率增加30%时，系统的状态概率约下降10%，当维修率由0.05提升至0.10时，可使系统的可靠性提高20%.      

大数据环境下的城市交通综合评估技术

伴随城市蔓延、轨道交通成网、用地开发等发展条件,大城市综合交通环境日益复杂。如何拓展评估边界、深化评估技术、提升评估频率和延伸评估视角成为传统城市交通评估技术体系面临的四个关键问题。首先介绍交通领域大数据的组成、特征及应用情况。通过深度挖掘交通运行产生的多源异构数据,建立集统计、关联、预测于一体的交通大数据分析平台和专题评估子系统,形成面向多层次、多领域应用需求的一体化综合交通模型体系。最后,基于深圳市的应用实践情况,阐述城市交通综合评估技术从城市到区域、从宏观到微观、从静态到动态、从土地到环境的转变。     

Reliability Analysis of Excavator Rectifier Feedback System with Multi-State Components Based on Belief Universal Generating Function Method

In view of the complexity and uncertainty of system, both the state performances and state probabilities of multi-state components can be expressed by interval numbers. The belief function theory is used to characterize the uncertainty caused by various factors. A modified Markov model is proposed to obtain the state probabilities of components at any given moment and subsequently the mass function is used to represent the precise belief degree of state probabilities. Based on the primary studies of universal generating function(UGF)method, a belief UGF(BUGF) method is utilized to analyze the reliability and the uncertainty of excavator rectifier feedback system. This paper provides an available method to evaluate the reliability of multi-state systems(MSSs) with interval state performances and state probabilities, and also avoid the interval expansion problem.     

基于可靠度的桥梁构件三维地震易损性分析

为了评估桥梁结构近场抗震性能,建立了桥梁构件的三维地震易损性分析流程. 基于工程结构可靠度理论,用构件三维失效曲面表征墩柱、支座构件的损伤状态,将包含多个单一损伤指标的损伤状态方程作为三维地震易损性分析的损伤指标;其次在既有墩柱弯曲和剪切失效曲面研究的基础上,构建了墩柱弯曲和剪切破坏的损伤状态方程;并基于支座地震损伤的相对变形,建立了支座损伤状态的方程. 在此基础上,构建了墩柱和支座三维地震损伤状态的判别准则,并对不同损伤状态进行了量化. 结合各国桥梁抗震设计规范和工程结构可靠度理论,最后实现了三维地震易损性的计算分析. 通过一维地震易损性的简化验证,表明所提方法可用于桥梁结构的地震易损性分析中,并且所得结果与PSDA （probabilistic seismic demand analysis）法的最大概率偏差小于4%.      

基于Markov模型的电解电容可靠性评估

基于Markov（马尔可夫）模型提出了一种对电解电容可靠性评估的方法.文中分析了电解电容的等效电路模型、老化损伤机理,通过RESR（等效串联电阻）表征了电解电容的失效率,然后将电解电容分为正常、老化损伤和完全失效三状态.根据马尔可夫模型建立电解电容的状态转移图,求出其可靠性,以开关电源的BUCK电路为例,通过仿真试验算出了电解电容实时的RESR和失效率,进而完成了对其可靠性的表征.     

Binary Logic State Transition Oriented Formal General Reliability Model

There were various conventional modeling techniques with varied semantics for system reliability assessment, such as fault trees(FT), Markov process(MP), and Petri nets. However, it is strenuous to construct and to maintain models utilizing these formalisms throughout the life cycle of system under development. This paper proposes a unified formal modeling language to build a general reliability model. The method eliminates the gap between the actual system and reliability model and shows details of the system clearly. Furthermore,the model could be transformed into FT and MP through specific rules defined by a formal language to assess system-level reliability.     

Wind turbine gearbox reliability analysis based on the system level stress-strength model

In order to estimate the reliability of wind turbine gearbox based on the system level, a generalized stress-strength model is introduced. Considering that the system works properly under a variety of random stresses which affect every component, the total stress on the system is given by a known linear combination of the stresses of all components. Then the strength of the system can be viewed as a linear combination of the strengths of relative components. In this model, stress and strength are independent of each other. Reliability of the system is the probability that strength exceeds stress. Finally, the reliability of wind turbine gearbox is estimated by the multivariable reliability calculation method. The corresponding result is compared with the results of reliability in the extreme cases(completely dependent and completely independent) by the traditional evaluation method.     

高等级公路可接受间隙控制系统分析与构模

本文针对我国机动车辆构成的实际情况，科析高等级公路立交地段车流特性、可接受间隙控制系统组成和动作情况，并对系统进行了抽象简化，构造了控制系统分析模型。利用该模型，能够得出高等级公路上不同交通需求条件下控制系统的运行状况。模型适用性强，不但适用具有合流匝道入口控制，而且能用于单入口匝道控制系统分析，文中提出的系统评价指标反映实际，给出的分析示例说明了系统的有效性、正确性和通用性。     

Fault tree analysis of feeding control system for computer numerical control heavy-duty horizontal lathes with multiple common cause failure groups

The lathes are basic machine tools for manufacturing cylindrical parts. In recent years, the DLseries computer numerical control(CNC) heavy-duty horizontal lathes(HDHLs) have been widely used in the transportation, energy and aviation industries. High availability of the CNC heavy-duty lathes is demanded to guarantee the efficiency and benefit of these manufacturing industries. As one of the key subsystems of the HDHLs, the feeding control system is studied in this paper on reliability modeling and reliability analysis. The fault tree analysis(FTA) method is used for reliability modelling of the feeding control system. Considering the multiple common cause failure groups(CCFGs) existing in the system, a modified beta factor parametric model is introduced to model the common cause failure(CCF) in system. The reliability of feeding control system is then obtained and the effect of CCF on the reliability of the whole system is studied as well.     

磁悬浮列车跨系统运行Petri网模型

根据磁悬浮列车跨系统运行需求,研究了其运行控制系统的总体框架,明确了需要增加的功能子系统。基于系统理论,采用Petri网对系统关键属性、列车运行过程及各子系统的功能进行了层次化的建模。最高层模型描述系统整体关键属性,低层模型描述列车运行过程及可靠性。此模型可用来定量分析磁悬浮列车系统层面上跨系统运行时,失败率与各子系统部件可靠性之间的关系。如每年磁悬浮列车跨系统运行失败次数不超过1次,则连接相邻列控系统的2个通信网,其失效率都需低于10-6次.h-1。当列车跨系统运行触发时间分别为0.2、2.0min,步进时间分别为4、16min时,则跨线运行失败率分别为1.95×10-5、1.65×10-5次.h-1。仿真结果表明:列车跨系统失败率随a网和b网可靠性的提高而降低,同时随着跨系统触发时间和步进时间的增加而降低。层次化建模分析方法可以根据系统层面的关键属性要求,定量确定各子系统部件的可靠性需求。     

Human reliability analysis method on armored vehicle system considering error correction

Human reliability analysis(HRA) is an expansion of man-machine engineering. It is also a new multidisciplinary based on behavioral science, cognitive science, information processing, system analysis and probability statistics in order to analyze, predict, reduce and prevent human errors. Firstly, the quantitative analysis model of HRA is proposed based on Markov process theory by using human error probability(HEP) and error correction cycle(ECC) as parameters. And human reliability evaluation criterion is built. Then, the HRA process considering error correction is proposed based on cognitive reliability and error analysis method(CREAM). Finally, according to the characteristics of armored vehicle system, common performance condition(CPC) in CREAM is improved.A reliability impact index is characterized by the overall contexts of tasks. Human reliability evaluation criterion of armored vehicle system is formulated. And the result of HRA is obtained based on the method presented in this paper. In addition, the relative weights are estimated by combining scale of 10/10—18/2 and analytical hierarchy process(AHP), and the triangular fuzzy number considering confidence factor and optimism index is adopted in order to reduce the subjectivity. The analysis results show that the method presented in this paper is reasonable and feasible. Meantime, the method can provide guidance for human reliability analysis of other weapon systems.     

TMR微机联锁系统的可靠度与安全度分析

分析了微机联锁的可靠度与安全度对于指导微机联锁系统在铁路运行系统中的应用。在分析中,采用马尔可夫模型,并考虑故障覆盖率影响情况,对TMR微机联锁系统的可靠度与安全度进行了推导,得出TMR微机联锁系统可靠度与安全度的定量表达式,分析了在通常情况下的系统可靠度与安全度。     

网构软件可靠性演化计算研究

为了计算和评估网构软件系统Internet网络环境下的可靠性变化,考虑到可靠性变化影响的积累效应,在网构软件系统结构的基础上构建网构软件系统可靠性转移矩阵,建立了网构软件可靠性演化计算以及演化趋势模型;利用DTMC理论和卷积原理,提出了可靠性演化计算模型,并设计了相应算法,从可靠性及其变化、可靠性变化积累计算3方面精细地进行可靠性演化趋势分析,算法计算复杂度降低到O（Nlog2N）.采用MATLAB模拟实验表明,提出的模型和算法能够有效地进行网构软件可靠性演化分析.      

基于马尔可夫过程的船舶电力系统可靠性和维修性分析

针对船舶电力系统的可靠性、维修性计算问题,从该系统主要运行方式的基本模型出发,提出了基于马尔可夫过程的船舶电力系统可靠性、维修性分析方法,建立了船舶电力系统可靠性、维修性的数学模型,推导出船舶电力系统可用度与可靠度的表达式,并给出了在船舶电站控制系统中的一个工程应用实例.     

分层结构热备冗余系统的可靠性分析

热备冗余结构在安全苛求系统中应用广泛．智能化输入输出模块和逻辑处理模块的分离形成了分层结构,层内两个模块相互热备,层与层串联后实现系统功能．采用Markov分析方法,考虑模块失效率和维修率,对分层热备冗余系统的可靠性进行了研究．按照优先恢复系统功能的维修策略建立了系统状态转移图,并由此得出了系统可靠性计算方法．依据仿真计算结果,不同模块的失效率和维修率对系统可靠性的影响程度相似,低优先级修复的模块对系统可靠性的影响程度增大．     

IEC61850-9-2标准下合并单元的研制

针对当前合并单元的研究现状,分析了合并单元的采样值映射模型IEC61850-9-2及其实现方法,在此基础上设计了一种基于现场可编程门阵列(FPGA)的合并单元装置。该装置通过在FPGA芯片上配置NiosII软核处理器和相关接口,完成合并单元同步、多路数据接收和处理以及以太网通信等功能,能满足电子式互感器数字接口的要求。     

可维修三模冗余结构系统的可靠度与安全度分析

采用马尔可夫模型 ,在考虑故障覆盖率及维修率影响的情况下 ,对三模冗余结构系统的可靠度及安全度进行了详细的推导 ,给出了求解系统可靠度及安全度的微分方程组 ,并用MATLAB仿真分析了故障覆盖率和维修率对系统安全度及可靠度的影响