Rising Sea Levels: Helping Decision-Makers Confront the Inevitable

Sea-level rise (SLR) is not just a future trend; it is occurring now in most coastal regions across the globe. It thus impacts not only long-range planning in coastal environments, but also emergency preparedness. Its inevitability and irreversibility on long time scales, in addition to its spatial non-uniformity, uncertain magnitude and timing, and capacity to drive non-stationarity in coastal flooding on planning and engineering timescales, create unique challenges for coastal risk-management decision processes. This review assesses past United States federal efforts to synthesize evolving SLR science in support of coastal risk management. In particular, it outlines the: (1) evolution in global SLR scenarios to those using a risk-based perspective that also considers low-probability but high-consequence outcomes, (2) regionalization of the global scenarios, and (3) use of probabilistic approaches. It also describes efforts to further contextualize regional scenarios by combining local mean sea-level changes with extreme water level projections. Finally, it offers perspectives on key issues relevant to the future uptake, interpretation, and application of sea-level change scenarios in decision-making. These perspectives have utility for efforts to craft standards and guidance for preparedness and resilience measures to reduce the risk of coastal flooding and other impacts related to SLR.     

Constructing Paradise: The Impacts of Big Tourism in the Mexican Coastal Zone

Although coastal tourism is often looked to as a way of generating foreign revenue, it can also engender a range of social and environmental impacts. From an historical perspective, this article examines the growth of Cancún in the Mexican state of Quintana Roo since the late 1960s. The article documents a range of socioeconomic and environmental impacts associated with the rise of coastal tourism, and suggests that centralized planning and the provision of physical and financial infrastructure does not prevent those impacts. The principal causes of these impacts are also described, including changes in land-usage, population, tourism markets, foreign market penetration and control, an emphasis on short-term economic gain, weak regulatory enforcement, and an overall lack of integration of coastal zone management.     

The Potential Economic Benefits of Coastal Ocean Observing Systems: The Southeast Atlantic Region

The Southeast Atlantic Coastal Ocean Observing System (SEACOOS) collects, manages and disseminates coastal oceanic and atmospheric observation information along the Atlantic coast of the southeastern United States. This article estimates the benefits of SEACOOS information in eleven benefit categories. Following a methodology used in similar studies of other U.S. coastal regions, we evaluate the impacts of conservative changes in economic activity in each benefit category. The annual economic benefit of SEACOOS information is $170 million (2003 $), an estimate that falls between annual benefits of $33 million for the Gulf of Maine region and $381 million for the Gulf of Mexico.     

The cost of not holding back the sea: Toward a national sample of economic vulnerability

Abstract

National and regional estimates of U.S. economic vulnerability to greenhouse‐induced sea‐level rise are produced from a sample of 30 discrete regions scattered evenly along the coastline. Scenarios that envision 50 cm, 100 cm, and 200 cm of greenhouse‐induced sea‐level rise are considered. They can be expected to place $39.2, $65.6, and $133.3 billion, respectively, (1989 dollars) of existing development in jeopardy through 2050, and $133.3, $308.7, and $909.4 billion through 2100. Sampling error and consideration of the uncertainty with which we currently view future greenhouse‐induced sea‐level rise places the 25th and 75th percentile values of expected cumulative vulnerability at $38.5 and $76.7 billion through 2050 and $132.6 and $362.4 billion through 2100. Not surprisingly, the southeast displays the largest potential vulnerability, with the northeast ranking second above both the Gulf coast and the west coast.     

A Football Field Lost Every 45 Minutes: Evaluating Local Capacity to Implement Louisiana's Coastal Master Plan

As Louisiana continues to experience substantial coastal wetland loss—at the rate of a football field every 45 min—and multiple disasters, state and federal officials struggle with implementing restoration plans in this highly productive ecosystem. The 2007 Louisiana Comprehensive Master Plan for a Sustainable Coast is the first large-scale restoration plan in the United States to incorporate hazard mitigation. However, there is no mandate for local governments to adhere to this plan. Building upon the planning quality and evaluation literature, this study analyzes comprehensive land use plans in Louisiana's coastal zone to systematically assess the quality of the plans within the context of a non-mandated, $50 billion large-scale state restoration plan. Results indicate a great disparity in plan quality; a majority of the local governments lack the capacity to implement the nonstructural programmatic elements of the state's plan. The study concludes with a discussion and recommendations for practice and future research.     

Managing Shoreline Change Under Increasing Sea-Level Rise in Ghana

Relative sea-level rise will affect vulnerable coastal communities globally. Quantifying this effect on the coastal environment and infrastructure provides critical information that enables coastal managers to develop sustainable mitigation and adaptation measures. Modeling applications have enabled the past, present, and future trends in shoreline morphology to be investigated in detail. Predictive numerical models depend largely on the reliability of the input data. This article reports on using the Soft Cliff and Platform Erosion (SCAPE) numerical model to simulate future shoreline evolution trend in the central Accra coast in Ghana. The model input parameters include historic shoreline recession rates, wave data, tidal data, bathymetry, beach volume, beach topography, historic relative sea-level rise rates, and the shoreline orientation. The data fed the SCAPE numerical model which simulated the emergence of soft rock shore profiles over timescale of decades to centuries, to project future positions of the central Accra shoreline for the next 100 years under different scenarios of climate change. Simulated future shoreline positions overlaid on a 2005 orthophoto map of Accra enabled vulnerable areas and infrastructure at risk to be identified. It emerged that a highly populated community in central Accra will be inundated by 2065, while the Rivera beach resort will be eroded from 2035. A natural fish landing site in Osu (suburb in Accra) will be lost from 2045. The study has demonstrated that considerable ecological, economic, social, and national losses should be expected within the next century. Shoreline change management options should be explored to help mitigate the expected impact of the sea-level rise.     

Vulnerability of Caribbean Island Cemeteries to Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports that rising seas by the end of this century will increase the severity of coastal flooding and erosion. The Caribbean region is home to many small islands that are vulnerable to sea level rise and storm surge. Much of the literature examining impacts of sea level rise in the Caribbean focuses on ecosystems, infrastructure, and recreation. Few studies have examined how sea level rise will impact historic and culturally important places. In an effort to address this research gap, geographic information systems and crowd-sourced, georeferenced photographs were used to build a first-of-its-kind database of 542 Caribbean small island cemeteries. Vulnerable cemeteries were then identified based upon elevation, proximity to the ocean, and the coastal profile. Over one-fifth of the cemeteries surveyed are within 100 m of the coast. The highest concentrations of vulnerable cemeteries are on flat islands such as the Cayman Islands. Yet, some mountainous islands such as Saint Martin also have potentially vulnerable cemeteries. These findings suggest that the bereaved, cemetery managers, and managers of coastal areas that have cemeteries may have additional considerations when making long-term decisions about where and how to bury the deceased.     

Analysis of Ocean-Space and Sea-Level Rise Policy in Two Coastal Cities

Global sea-level rise (SLR) is among the most alarming aspects of anthropogenic climate change. The human impacts of SLR are experienced unequally between and within municipalities. Existing research has identified social variables that predict municipal adoption of adaptive SLR policy, but this work does not account for the locally specific social factors that shape particular policies to fit particular cases. This study describes social conceptions of the ocean and SLR policy for two coastal cities in western Washington: Aberdeen and Bainbridge Island. Examining conceptions of marine spaces provides insight into the complex process by which local physical and socio-demographic characteristics shape local policy. The study uses a grounded theoretical approach to content analyses, resulting in localized typologies of marine spaces as well as SLR policy profiles for each case. Results indicate that municipalities vary by both social conception of the ocean and SLR policy form. These findings elaborate upon the relationship between socioeconomic conditions and municipal climate change policy adoption, suggesting that in local media and policy discourse, the absence of relevant resources is related to adversarial conceptions of local marine spaces, while abundance of relevant resources is associated with a conception of marine spaces as natural resources.     

Effect of proposed CO2 emission reduction scenarios on capital expenditure

The International Maritime Organisation is currently working on establishing regulations for international shipping regarding greenhouse gas emissions, and a cost-effectiveness approach has been suggested as one method for determining the necessary reductions in emissions from shipping. Previous studies have investigated the CO₂ emission reduction potential for the world shipping fleet up to 2030 and the associated marginal abatement cost levels. To analyse the cost implications of different emission reduction scenarios, this study has calculated the emission reduction potential and additional capital expenditure for 25 CO₂ emission reduction measures applied to 59 ship segments. The expected fleet development over time, keeping track of new ships built from 2010 to 2030 and Existing ships built prior to 2010 and still in operation by 2030, have been modelled. Two alternative approaches to find the cost-effective potential in the world shipping fleet have been applied. One approach is to implement only measures which in themselves are cost-effective (measure-by-measure), and another approach is to implement measures as long as the net savings from cost-effective measures balance the costs of non-cost-effective measures (set of measures). The results demonstrate that by 2030, the majority (93%) of the reduction potential will be related to new ships. Our results show that the measure-by-measure approach would decrease the CO₂ emissions by 30% for new ships while the set-of-measures approach with 53% (of the 2030 baseline emissions of 1316?Mt). The implication of achieving such emission reduction is an increase in the capital expenditure on New ships by 6% (USD 183 billion) and 27% (USD 761 billion), respectively, in the period 2010 to 2030 compared to a business-as-usual scenario. The measure-by-measure approach yields a 5% decrease in CO₂ emission per 1% increase in capital expenditure, while the set-of-measures approach yields a 2% decrease per 1% increase. This is due to the significant variation in capital intensity of the different measures, ranging from almost zero to USD 200 per tonne of CO₂ averted. The results of this study are useful for the shipping industry to assess the economic burden that must be shouldered in order to implement abatement measures under different CO₂ emission reduction scenarios.     

Development of Beach Analysis Tools for Caribbean Small Islands

Beach erosion presents a hazard to coastal tourism facilities, which provide the main economic thrust for most Caribbean small islands (CSIs). Ad hoc approaches to addressing this problem have given way to the integrated coastal zone management (ICZM) approach, which recommends data collection, analysis of coastal processes, and assessment of impacts. UNESCO's Coast and Beach Stability in the Caribbean (COSALC) project has provided most CSIs with an opportunity to monitor their beaches and collect over 10 years of data. Research has been directed at integrating these data with geographic information systems (GIS) and other information technologies to develop a prototype beach analysis and management system (BAMS) for CSIs. This article presents the results of phase I development of this effort, which includes the development of tools for integrating spatial and non-spatial coastal data, estimating long-term beach erosion/accretion and sand volume change trends at individual beaches, identifying erosion-sensitive beaches, and mapping beach erosion hazards. The Southeast Peninsula, St. Kitts, is used as a case study to develop these tools and demonstrate system functionality.     

Coastal Erosion in Ghana: Causes,Policies, and Management

Coastal erosion is a serious problem that affects the safety and livelihoods of many coastal dwellers along Ghana's coast. Despite the fact that coastal erosion is a natural phenomenon, erosion trends have been largely aggravated by human-induced factors. This study analyzed shoreline change rates for three neighbouring coastal communities in the Central region of Ghana; Elmina, Cape Coast and Moree. Two epochs were analyzed, 1974–2012 (medium-term) and 2005–2012 (short-term), using ArcGIS and Digital Shoreline Analysis System. Overall, the entire study area recorded average shoreline change rates of ?1.24 myear^?1 and ?0.85 myear^?1 in the medium-term and short-term period respectively. Less consolidated shoreline segments recorded higher erosion rates in both periods while cliffs and rocky segments experienced very little erosion or high stability. Because shorelines undergoing chronic erosion do not fully recover after short-term erosion events such as storms, facilities located close to such shorelines are threatened. Taking a proactive approach to coastal erosion management, such as coastal sand mining prevention, inter-sectoral land use management and adopting a construction setback approach may be prudent for the long-term management of the coast since this recognizes future shoreline changes and safeguards coastal landscape for other uses.     

An Assessment of Coastal Development and Land Use Change Using the DPSIR Framework: Case Studies from the Eastern Cape,South Africa

Coastal areas are experiencing high levels of development, largely driven by a number of aesthetic and recreational factors, increased mobility, availability of disposable income for middle and upper income groups and the promise of job opportunities and improved economic well-being for lower income groups. As existing coastal urban nodes expand development “shifts” to less developed areas and places increasing pressure on the surrounding natural environment. This article considers the coastal zone of two municipalities in the Eastern Cape, South Africa, with similar environmental characteristics but disparate socioeconomic and governance histories. It identifies and integrates the drivers of development and land use change in the coastal zone of these municipalities by means of an adapted Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) Framework. Development and land use change are driven by a combination of social, economic, and legislative factors that need to be considered for future management and planning in this unique dynamic system.     

Comparison of Beach Nourishment along the U.S. Atlantic,Great Lakes,Gulf of Mexico,and New England Shorelines

The U.S. national beach nourishment experience is summarized for the East Coast barrier islands, the Gulf of Mexico, New England, and the Great Lakes. A total of 1,305 nourishment episodes on 382 beaches are recorded at a total estimated cost of approximately $1.4 billion ($2.5 billion in 1996 dollars). In terms of both volume and costs, nourishment has been the most extensive by far on the East Coast barrier islands. Depending on the region, between 65% and 85% of all nourishment projects have a federal funding component. Annual expenditures and sand volumes for beach nourishment are increasing, especially on East Coast barriers. At present, total annual national beach nourishment costs (excluding the Pacific Coast) are on the order of $100 million per year. The cost per cubic yard of nourishment sand as expressed in 1996 dollars has remained more or less constant over time. Additionally, the volumes of sand needed for subsequent nourishment episodes on individual beaches do not decrease, despite contrary assumptions in the shoreface-profile-ofequilibrium concept that subsequent nourishment volumes should diminish. In light of the historical experience of beach nourishment identified in this study, individual state and local coastal communities should reevaluate their plans for future beach nourishment programs. The complete listing of all the data on nourished beaches from this survey is available at www.geo.duke.edu/Research/psds/psds.htm     

Champions as Influencers of Science Uptake into Australian Coastal Zone Policy

Australia's coastal environments are exposed to great pressures. Adequate policy and management measures are required to ensure the protection of coastal assets now and for future generational use. However, recent government reports and academic literature have highlighted that improved science uptake into policy is needed to ensure coastal communities are protected from impacts such as climate change. The literature suggests that individuals, coined champions, can play an important role in influencing the use of science by policymakers. However, a paucity of research exists surrounding the role of these individuals. This research explores the role of champions in enabling science uptake into policy in the Australian coastal zone, investigating champion characteristics and strategies used in influencing policymakers. A mixed-methods approach to the research was employed, integrating a paper/online survey of people involved in Australian coastal management and in-depth, semi-structured interviews with champions nominated by their peers from the survey. Fourteen key coastal champion characteristics were identified from the survey. Furthermore, the champion interviews identified strategies for influencing science use by policymakers. From these findings a conceptual model was created. In order to enable coastal champions to be fostered, a six-step process was developed that incorporates the use of the conceptual model.     

Governance of Shipping Emission of SOx in China's Coastal Waters: The SECA Policy,Challenges, and Directions

Emission governance of air pollutants from ships is a common challenge for the world's shipping industry. Under the framework of the International Maritime Organization (IMO), Europe, North America, and other developed regions and countries have established strict ship Emission Control Areas (ECAs). With some of the largest ports in the world, China suffers severe air pollution from ships, posing a threat to the air quality and public health of the coastal cities. To strengthen the control and supervision over air pollutants, such as ship-emitted sulfur oxides (SO_x) in coastal areas, China issued a Sulfur Emission Control Area (SECA) policy for ships in January 2016. However, the new SECA policy lags far behind IMO's existing ECA policies, and continues to face many challenges during implementation. This paper outlines the main framework of China's ship SECA policy, analyzes the legal governance basis, discusses major potential challenges for implementing the policy, and puts forward suggestions for future governance. This research aims to promote the effectiveness of China's sulfur emission-reducing SECA policy by putting forth novel ideas for policymakers and stakeholders.     

Humpback Whales in Tonga: An Economic Resource for Tourism

The growth of whale-watching internationally has been spectacular. It now occurs in almost 100 countries and is estimated to be worth in excess of U.S.$1 billion each year in revenue. Thus, whales have become valuable as a resource for tourism. The Vava'u island group in the northern part of the Kingdom of Tonga in the South Pacific is an area with a growing reputation as a whale-watching destination. However, the industry is relatively new there and the impacts of whale-based tourism in these islands is, as yet, unknown. In addition, there has been a recent consideration of a return to hunting whales in Tonga. As a result, concerns regarding the value of these animals for tourism and the potential impact of a return to hunting have arisen. Consequently, a study was designed to provide a preliminary assessment of the economic impacts of these animals for the island community. This study estimates that humpback whales may be worth in excess of U.S.$700,000 annually as a tourism attraction and that there is significant potential for future growth. Furthermore, the study shows that current visitors are opposed to any resumption of whaling practices in the islands and that such a move would likely displace large numbers of tourists from Tonga. Thus, it is concluded that a resumption of whaling in Tonga would likely have a significant opportunity cost in terms of lost tourism revenues.     

Governance Responses to Rapid Growth in Environmentally Sensitive Areas of Coastal Australia

The twin forces of rising affluence and population are altering coastal communities around the world. High amenity, environmentally sensitive areas—particularly attractive, non-metropolitan coastal environments—are witnessing a tidal wave of in migration from former urbanites. As a result, these communities are struggling to accommodate growing numbers of people with urban tastes and rural dreams in areas with governance structures and physical infrastructure designed for occasional tourists. This article looks at how governance frameworks in coastal Australia respond to the profound environmental, social, and cultural implications of this process. We offer a typology of non-metropolitan coastal growth settings—from exurban contexts to isolated coastal hamlets—and identify the main environmental, social, economic, and governance issues they face. We then outline the policy and legislative framework governing coastal areas in Australia and show how this framework is interpreted at the local level through an analysis of five local plans covering different coastal settings.     

Assessment of coastal zone issues in the Republic of Korea

Abstract

The physical characteristics of Korea have had a profound impact on the uses of the coastal zone that have, in turn, been determined by and reinforced the nation's economic development strategy. While coastal zone management in many developed economies is more heavily oriented toward environmental protection and the resolution of user conflicts, policies for coastal zone management in Korea have emphasized the role of coastal space and other resources for economic development and industrial needs. Increasing demand for land reclamation to provide ever‐increasing industrial sites and human settlements, traditional and future needs of the fishery, and concern for the environment have led to a vast array of competition and, finally, often to conflicts. The basic pattern of coastal zone use in Korea has changed from the linear expansion of coastal zone to integrated coastal uses. An increased number of critical coastal zone issues and interactions was reflected in the creation of new governance that dealt with coastal zone resources and environment.     

Geography and Coastal Management

This article presents an overview of the relationship between geography and coastal management. It explores the nature of geography as well as the geographical underpinnings of key notions within coastal management, in particular, “coast,” “conflict,” and “integration.” The article considers the integrated coastal management process and tracks the influence of geography on the development of the discipline's theory and practice, as well as its academic infrastructure. The article concludes that although geography both underpins and offers useful insights into coastal management, a challenge remains to explore in greater depth the benefits of applied geographical approaches to the management of coasts.     

Future cost scenarios for reduction of ship CO2 emissions

International shipping is a significant contributor to Global Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions, responsible for approximately 3% of global CO₂ emissions. The International Maritime Organization is currently working to establish GHG regulations for international shipping and a cost effectiveness approach has been suggested to determine the required emission reductions from shipping. To achieve emission reductions in a cost effective manner, this study has assessed the cost and reduction potential for present and future abatement measures based on new and unpublished data. The model used captures the world fleet up to 2030, and the analysis includes 25 separate measures. A new integrated modelling approach has been used combining fleet projections with activity-based CO₂ emission modelling and projected development of measures for CO₂ emission reduction. The world fleet projections up to 2030 are constructed using a fleet growth model that takes into account assumed ship type specific scrapping and new building rates. A baseline trajectory for CO₂ emission is then established. The reduction potential from the baseline trajectory and the associated marginal cost levels are calculated for 25 different emission reduction measures. The results are given as marginal abatement cost curves, and as future cost scenarios for reduction of world fleet CO₂ emissions. The results show that a scenario in which CO₂ emissions are reduced by 33% from baseline in 2030 is achievable at a marginal cost of USD 0 per tonne reduced. At this cost level, emission in 2010 can be reduced by 19% and by 24% in 2020. A scenario with 49% reduction from baseline in 2030 can be achieved at a marginal cost of USD 100 per tonne (27% in 2010 and 35% in 2020). Furthermore, it is evident that further increasing the cost level beyond USD 100 per tonne yield very little in terms of further emission reduction. The results also indicate that stabilising fleet emissions at current levels is obtainable at moderate costs, compensating for fleet growth up to 2030. However, significant reductions beyond current levels seem difficult to achieve. Marginal abatement costs for the major ship types are also calculated, and the results are shown to be relatively homogenous for all major ship types. The presented data and methodology could be very useful for assisting the industry and policymakers in selecting cost effective solutions for reducing GHG emissions from the world fleet.