深水定位系统的安全管理(英文)

Based on relevant in-service experience, this paper discusses how risks associated with station-keeping systems can be controlled through adequate design criteria, inspection, repair and maintenance practice, as well as quality assurance and control of the engineering processes. Particular focus must be placed on quantitative design for system robustness. The application of structural reliability analysis to quantify safety is briefly reviewed. In particular it was emphasized that reliability predictions based on normal uncertainties and variability yielded lower failure rates than those experienced for predictions of hulls and catenary mooring systems; gross errors in design, fabrication and operation were responsible. For this reason the broad safety management approach mentioned above was proposed. Moreover, it was found that this approach needed to be supported by a quantitative risk assessment. Finally, the challenges in dealing with the effects of human factors in risk management are outlined, along with means to deal with them in a qualitative manner, by the so-called barrier method to limit risk.     

考虑防波堤失效状况的超大型海洋浮式储油船系泊系统安全性评估

本文首先阐述了建立我国战略石油储备的必要性,选取了超大型浮式储油船作为海上石油储备方式.系泊系统是整个海上储油系统中最重要的设施,对系泊系统的概念、分析、设计和可靠性等作了较详细的描述.用失效概率来评估系泊系统的安全性,是衡量储油系统是否安全的重要手段之一.文中提出了考虑防波堤遭受破坏状况下计算系泊系统失效的数值模拟方法,用时域系泊模拟法求解储油船运动方程并对系泊系统进行了可靠性分析.模拟结果表明,系泊系统的年可靠性为0.999 997.所提出的方法能有效地对超大型浮式储油船系泊系统进行定量的安全评估.     

我国战略石油储备船系泊系统安全性评估

用失效概率来评估系泊系统的安全性,是衡量储油系统是否安全的重要手段之一.本文提出了考虑防波堤遭受破坏状况下计算系泊系统失效的数值模拟方法,用时域系泊模拟法求解储油船运动方程并对系泊系统进行了可靠性分析.模拟结果表明,系泊系统的年可靠性为0.999998.所提出的方法能有效地对超大型浮式储油船系泊系统进行定量的安全评估.     

A survey on modeling and control of thruster-assisted position mooring systems

This review presents a systematic summary of the state-of-the-art development of technological solutions, modeling, and control strategies of thruster-assisted position mooring (TAPM) systems. The survey serves as a starting point for exploring automatic control and real-time monitoring solutions proposed for TAPM systems. A brief historical background of the mooring systems is given. The kinematics and a simplified kinetic control-design model of a TAPM system are derived in accordance with established control methods, including a quasistatic linearized model for the restoring and damping forces based on low-frequency horizontal motions of the vessel. In addition, another two mooring line models, i.e., the catenary equation and the finite element method model, are presented for the purpose of higher-fidelity simulations. The basic TAPM control strategies are reviewed, including heading control, surge-sway damping, roll–pitch damping (for semisubmersibles), and line break detection and compensation. Details on the concepts of setpoint chasing for optimal positioning of a vessel at the equilibrium position are discussed based on balancing the mooring forces with the environmental loads and avoiding mooring line failure modes. One method for setpoint chasing is the use of a structural reliability index, accounting for both mean mooring line tensions and dynamic effects. Another method is the use of a lowpass filter on the position of the vessel itself, to provide a reference position. The most advanced method seems to be the use of a fault-tolerant control framework that, in addition to direct fault detection and isolation in the mooring system, incorporates minimization of either the low-frequency tensions in the mooring lines or minimization of the reliability indices for the mooring lines to select the optimal directions for the setpoint to move. A hybrid (or supervisory switching) control method is also presented, where a best-fit control law and observer law are automatically selected among a bank of control and observer algorithms based on the supervision of the sea-state and automatic switching logic.     

结构系统疲劳可靠性分析的一阶和二阶混合方法

本文提出了复杂结构系统疲劳可靠性分析的一阶和二阶混合方法。引进Ｈｏｈｅｎｂｉｃｈｌｅｒ等提出的并联系统可靠性分析的二阶渐近式计算失效途径的疲劳失效概率;利用并联系统等效线性安全余量的概念,形成由失效途径的等效失效单元组成的串联系统;并最终计算整个系统的疲劳失效概率。计算结果表明,这一方法能有效地提高结构系统疲劳失效概率的计算精度。     

基于结构可靠性的锚泊辅助动力定位滑模控制

针对长年累月定位在深海恶劣海况下的浮式生产储卸油装置(Floating Production Storage and Offloading vessels，FPSOs)的作业安全问题，本文提出了一种基于缆线结构性的锚泊辅助动力定位滑模控制方法。通过引入结构可靠性因子，表征锚泊系统缆线的安全，在此基础上设计一种新型滑模控制器，通过控制结构可靠性因子和艏向以达到FPSO锚泊辅助定位目的，并证明了系统的稳定性。通过一系列的仿真实验，证明了所提出的基于结构可靠性滑模控制器的有效性、安全性和节能性。     

内转塔单点系泊系统风险评估与设计维护建议

内转塔系泊系统广泛应用于海洋石油FPSO或液化天然气FLNG中。在我国南海海域油田开发中,内转塔系泊系统发挥了重要作用,并已逐渐成为主要的FPSO系泊方式。本文对"海洋石油111"FPSO内转塔系泊系统的失效模式、主要风险因素等进行了分析。通过风险评估确认了主要风险点,对该系统的设计和维护提出了相应的建议。     

深水Spar钻采储运平台极限强度可靠性分析

针对一种新型的深水立柱式Spar钻采储运平台(Spar Drilling Production Storage Offloading)的结构特点进行极限强度可靠性研究。SDPSO平台的中间舱段为储油系统,其结构的安全性尤为重要,本文验证了在波浪弯矩年极值条件下其特殊储油系统结构的安全性。采用SESAM/Wadam软件对SDPSO平台进行水动力计算,利用序列统计法得到年极值短期海况,然后采用极值I型分布得到该短期海况下的波浪弯矩极值;利用ABAQUS非线性有限元软件和改进的Rosenblueth法进行SDPSO平台中舱段的极限强度计算,并得到极限承载能力的概率分布。最后基于一次二阶矩法完成SDPSO平台弯曲极限强度的可靠性计算,结果表明平台结构极限强度具有较高的安全水平,为深海立柱式海洋平台设计提供了依据和参考。     

深水钻井平台定位系统评估

This paper addresses the need for systematic evaluation of the station keeping systems of deepwater drilling semi-submersibles. Based on the selected drilling semi-submersible configuration, the mooring systems were analyzed and designed for a range of water depths using different mooring line materials. These were steel wire rope, polyester rope and HMPE (high modulus poly ethylene). The mooring analysis was carried out using the advanced fully coupled time domain analysis method in the computer software package HARP. Diffraction analysis was first applied to solve the hydrodynamic properties of the vessel and then the motion equations of the complete dynamic system including the drilling rig, the mooring lines and risers were developed and solved in the time domain. Applying the advanced analysis method, a matrix of mooring systems was developed for operating in water depths of 1 000 m, 1 500 m, and 2 000 m using various mooring materials. The development of mooring systems was conducted in accordance with the commonly adopted mooring design code, API RP 2SK and API RP 2SM. Fresh attempts were then made to comparatively evaluate the mooring system’s characteristics and global performance. Useful results have been obtained in terms of mooring materials, water depths, and key parameters of mooring configurations. The results provide in-depth insight for the design and operation of deepwater mooring systems in the South China Sea environment.     

An integrated methodology for the design of mooring systems and risers

Traditionally, the design of mooring lines and risers of floating production systems (FPS) has been performed separately, by different teams, employing uncoupled analysis tools that do not consider the nonlinear interaction between the platform hull and the mooring lines and risers. Design processes have been focused on fulfilling the design criteria of the respective component (mooring/riser) alone, with few or no consideration to the other component, and little interaction between the design teams. Nowadays the importance of employing analysis tools based on coupled formulations is widely recognized, and analysis strategies have been proposed to consider feedback between mooring lines and risers within their respective design processes.In this context, this work details a proposal of one single and fully integrated design methodology for mooring systems and risers for deep-water FPS. In this methodology, the design stages of both risers and mooring lines are incorporated in a single spiral, allowing the full interaction of different teams; mooring design implicitly considers the riser integrity, and vice-versa, leading to gains in efficiency and cost reduction.Different analysis strategies are employed, taking advantage of uncoupled and coupled numerical models. The models generated at the initial/intermediate design stages can be reused in subsequent stages: simpler models are used in the initial stages, and more refined models are gradually introduced, to reach an ideal balance between computational cost and accuracy of results. In the advanced stages, the exchange of information between mooring/riser also allows the definition of criteria for the selection of governing/critical loading cases to be revised and verified in detail. This leads to the reduction of the original loading case matrix, allowing a feasible use of time-consuming fully coupled analysis.Results of a case study illustrating the application of some of the main processes of the methodology are included.     

系泊系统对波能发电装置动力响应的影响

[目的]为了设计造价合理、性能高效的系泊系统,研究不同系泊系统对波能发电装置(WEC)的能量摄取(PTO)能力和定位性能的影响.[方法]选择一典型的两刚体点吸式WEC装置为研究对象,采用WEC-Sim和MoorDyn开源代码设计两类系泊系统,一类采用锚链,另一类采用锚链和聚酯缆绳所组成的混合缆.通过对这两类系泊系统进行...     

共模故障分析在起落架系统中的应用研究

共模故障（COMMON MODE FAULT,CMF）广泛存在于复杂系统中,研究如何对系统中可能引发共模故障的故障状态进行识别、提出预防措施、降低共因故障发生概率,成为当今可靠性安全性领域重要的研究方向。共模故障分析（COMMON MODE FAULT ANALYSIS,CMFA）是一种用于复杂系统可靠性、安全性和风险性评价的方法,是故障模式与影响分析和故障树分析的补充,此方法可以用来检验系统各组成部分之间是否满足独立性要求,确定共模故障条件下对系统失效的概率。通过共模故障分析方法在某型民机起落架应用过程的分析研究,为今后此分析方法的应用提供参考。     

Integrated reliability and sizing optimization of a large composite structure

In this paper, we present the application of probabilistic design modeling and reliability-based design optimization (RBDO) methodology to the sizing optimization of a composite advanced submarine sail structure under parametric uncertainty. With the help of probabilistic sensitivity analysis, the influence of individual random variables on each structural failure mode is examined, and the critical modes are treated as probabilistic design constraints under consistent lower bounds on the corresponding reliability indices. Whereas the failure modes are evaluated for structural components in the solution of the RBDO problem, the overall system reliability is also evaluated as a post-optimization step. The results indicate that in comparison to a deterministic-optimum design, the structural mass of the probabilistic optimum design is slightly higher when consistent probabilistic constraints are imposed, and the overall structural stiffness is found to be more critical than individual component laminate ply thicknesses in meeting the specified design constraints. Moreover, the post-optimality analysis shows that the overall system failure probability of the probabilistic optimum design is more than 50% lower than that of the deterministic optimal design with less than 5% penalty in structural mass.     

船体梁与加筋板极限强度可靠性设计

本文应用结构可靠性分析方法，分别以船体梁和船体纵向加筋板极限承载能力为失效模式，对船体结构进行了安全评估和可靠性设计。应用所开发的新的改进可靠性计算方法，计算了基本物理量的不确定性对船体结构极限强度函数统计特征的影响，同时结合所开发的用于直接估算船体梁和加筋板极限强度的荛用计算方法，确定出不同船体结构的失效概率和设计目标安全指数，推导了局部安全因子，可以进行船体结构的可靠性设计与再评估。     

单点系泊系统将军柱疲劳分析

渤海某FPSO的单点系泊装置固定塔架由导管架、将军柱和上部组块构成,其中将军柱是系泊力的主要承受构件之一,其结构安全至关重要。由于系泊力是典型的交变载荷,作用在结构上会产生疲劳损伤,因此有必要对将军柱进行在位期间的疲劳分析。本文提出一种长期海况下海上固定装置疲劳计算方法,通过AQWA软件建立单点系泊系统的多体耦合水动力模型模型,根据渤海的海况环境资料计算出FPSO运动时域内所受到的的系泊力;基于S-N曲线方法与Miner线性累计损伤理论,通过nCode Designlife疲劳计算软件计算将军柱结构的疲劳寿命和管节点的疲劳损伤;评估结构的疲劳强度,分析易发生疲劳的关键节点位置,并给出增加管节点疲劳寿命的建议及设计方法,为相同类型的海上固定式结构物的结构设计及疲劳分析提供有益的参考及借鉴。     

Strength reliability analysis of stiffened cylindrical shells considering failure correlation

The stiffened cylindrical shell is commonly used for thepressure hull of submersibles and the legs of offshore platforms.There are various failure modes because of uncertainty with thestructural size and material properties, uncertainty of the calculationmodel and machining errors. Correlations among failure modesmust be considered with the structural reliability of stiffenedcylindrical shells. However, the traditional method cannot considerthe correlations effectively. The aim of this study is to present amethod of reliability analysis for stiffened cylindrical shells whichconsiders the correlations among failure modes. Firstly, the jointfailure probability calculation formula of two related failure modesis derived through use of the 2D joint probability density function.Secondly, the full probability formula of the tandem structuralsystem is given with consideration to the correlations among failuremodes. At last, the accuracy of the system reliability calculation isverified through use of the Monte Carlo simulation. Result of theanalysis shows the failure probability of stiffened cylindrical shellscan be gained through adding the failure probability of each mode.     

Optimization of mooring systems in the context of an integrated design methodology

This work describes an enhanced mooring optimization procedure, oriented towards recent floating production systems (FPS) for oil & gas exploitation in ultra-deep-water scenarios, which may present a large number of risers in an asymmetric layout. Acknowledging that the risers are the key component of an FPS, the optimization procedure is associated to an integrated mooring-riser design methodology; thus, instead of simply minimizing the platform offsets and/or the costs of the mooring system itself, one of the main objectives is to obtain a mooring configuration that ensures the integrity of the risers. Other highlights of the optimization procedure include the following aspects: Enhancements in the modeling of the optimization problem (including the definition of design variables, objective function and constraints that are relevant for such actual applications); The use of the PSO optimization algorithm associated to the ε-constrained method to efficiently handle the constraints; Enhancements in the evaluation of candidate solutions, by full nonlinear time-domain dynamic Finite Element simulations with coupled models; and the implementation in a parallel computing environment to deal with the high associated computational costs. A case study considering an FPS representative of actual applications in deepwater scenarios is presented to illustrate the practical application of the optimization tool.     

Bi-fidelity Kriging model for reliability analysis of the ultimate strength of stiffened panels

A method based on a Bi-fidelity Kriging model is proposed for structural reliability analysis. It is based on adding low-fidelity data samples to the model to predict high-fidelity values, thus saving computational effort. Distance Correlation develops the correlation between the low and high-fidelity functions, initially proposed to assess the correlation between two variables. The bi-fidelity Kriging response surface model's efficiency as a surrogate model will be assessed for structural reliability problems that demand high computational costs, such as nonlinear finite element analysis structural models. The efficiency assessment is performed by comparing the accuracy of the failure probability predictions based on the Subset Simulation and First-order reliability method using the Bi-fidelity Kriging model as a surrogate for the performance function. The idea is illustrated by considering a representative component of marine structures analyzed by finite element analysis to create bi-fidelity scenarios to assess structural reliability with many variables. The results show that the proposed multi-fidelity method can provide an accurate failure probability estimation with less computational cost.     

海洋平台结构系统疲劳可靠性分析的一阶二次矩方法

本文提出了海洋平台结构系统疲劳可靠性分析的一阶二次矩方法，海洋平台结构系统中疲劳破坏的失效途径用一由若于失效单元组成的并闻系统来模拟，失效单元代表了平台结构中易发生疲劳破坏的管节点，文中寻出了失效单元依次破坏时的疲劳寿命与它们在其他单元均未破坏下的疲劳寿命之间的一船关系式，并用一阶二次矩方法计算上述并联系统的失效概率。     

系泊系统的时域仿真及其非线性动力学特性分析

应用时域仿真的方法研究了系泊系统的非线性动力学特性。以三阶操纵运动方程为基础,引入定常的风力、潮流作用力和二阶波浪力,建立了系泊系统三自由度的运动微分方程。在此数学模型的基础上,建立了系泊系统的多自由度的计算机仿真模型。在风浪流联合作用的情形下,对一艘单点系泊油轮的动力学行为进行了仿真研究。以潮流速度和系缆程度为分岔控制参数,在参数平面上给出了局部分岔集。研究表明,系泊系统的动力学行为具有强烈的非线性特征。在仿真过程中观察到了吸引子的共存和Hopf分岔。局部分岔集将参数平面分为3个系统动力学行为本质不同的区域。极值系泊力水平与系泊系统的动力学行为有着密切的关系。对于单点系泊船舶而言,顶风顶浪顶流的状态并不一定是最为危险的工况。局部分岔集的确定为系泊系统参数的选择提供了决策依据。