Prediction of wave parameters by using fuzzy inference system and the parametric models along the south coasts of the Black Sea

Forecasting of sea-state characteristics has a great importance in coastal and ocean engineering studies. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to investigate performances of Adaptive-Network-Based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) and several parametric methods in the Black Sea. For this purpose, different fuzzy models with different input combinations were developed for two different wind data sources (TSMS and ECMWF) at two offshore buoy stations. It also aimed to apply several approaches to event-based data sets for wave predictions. Generally, in literature the tendency is to use time series data for wave predictions. In this kind of prediction approach, lagged time series data are taken as inputs and current or future variables are taken as output. In this study, event-based data for each independent storm were extracted from time series data. Simultaneous or concurrent data of wind speed, blowing duration, fetch length and wave characteristics were detected for each single storm. These event data were then used to set up models. The hindcast results were validated with significant wave height and mean wave period data recorded in Hopa and Sinop buoy stations. The performance of developed fuzzy models were also compared with that of four different parametric methods (Wilson, SPM, Jonswap, and CEM methods) applied for two wind data sources at both buoy stations. Finally, it was determined that in the prediction of both wave parameters (H _s and T _z) the ANFIS models (R = 0.66, squared correlation coefficient, and MAE = 0.37 m, mean absolute error, for the best model in prediction of H _s) were more accurate than the parametric methods (R = 0.63 and MAE = 0.75 m for the best model in prediction of H _s).     

An approach to estimation of near-surface turbulence and CO2 transfer velocity from remote sensing data

The air–sea CO₂ exchange is primarily determined by the boundary-layer processes in the near-surface layer of the ocean since it is a water-side limited gas. As a consequence, the interfacial component of the CO₂ transfer velocity can be linked to parameters of turbulence in the near-surface layer of the ocean. The development of remote sensing techniques provides a possibility to quantify the dissipation of the turbulent kinetic energy in the near-surface layer of the ocean and the air–sea CO₂ transfer velocity on a global scale. In this work, the dissipation rate of the turbulent kinetic energy in the near-surface layer of the ocean and its patchiness has been linked to the air–sea CO₂ transfer velocity with a boundary-layer type model. Field observations of upper ocean turbulence, laboratory studies, and the direct CO₂ flux measurements are used to validate the model. The model is then forced with the TOPEX POSEIDON wind speed and significant wave height to demonstrate its applicability for estimating the distribution of the near-surface turbulence dissipation rate and gas transfer velocity for an extended (decadal) time period. A future version of this remote sensing algorithm will incorporate directional wind/wave data being available from QUIKSCAT, a now-cast wave model, and satellite heat fluxes. The inclusion of microwave imagery from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) and the Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) will provide additional information on the fractional whitecap coverage and sea surface turbulence patchiness.     

Temporal and spectral characteristics of seismic ground motions: Offshore versus onshore

To distinguish offshore and onshore seismic ground motions, conventional analyses in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA) and earthquake response spectrum (ERS) have been carried out in a recent work by authors and other papers in literature. In the present study, distinct temporal and spectral characteristics between onshore and offshore earthquake ground motions are further investigated in time-domain and frequency-domain. The data used is 69 pairs of concurrent onshore and offshore ground motions collected from the Kyoshin Network (K-NET). Each pair of data are of approximately identical epicenter distances. Comparisons are made on zero-up-crossing period (T_z), peak-to-trough acceleration range (A_pt) and period (T_pt), duration of ground motion (T_d), predominant frequency (f_p) and the spectral bandwidth parameter (ε). The results indicate that for offshore horizontal and vertical seismic signals, statistics of T_z, T_pt, T_d and predominant period T_p tend to be larger than the onshore counterparts. Meanwhile, ε of the offshore vertical ground motions is also greater. Through the proposed energy ratio (ER) analysis, the spectral energy of offshore ground motion is found to shift to moderate and low frequency bands. The time-frequency analysis conducted by Hilbert-Huang transform (HHT) shows that the Hilbert spectra of offshore accelerations contain larger spectral energy than the onshore counterpart but the corresponding instantaneous frequencies at peak energy are smaller, especially for horizontal recordings. Therefore, larger dynamic response of offshore structures is prone to be induced by the offshore ground excitation. This is further validated through the dynamic analysis of a marine pipeline in case study.     

Contribution of supposed wave condition on the long-term distribution of a wave-induced load

This report is concerned with the statistical analysis of the long-term distribution of a wave-induced load, and examines which factors influence the long-term distribution of the load level, e.g., the significant wave height, the mean wave period of the supposed wave condition, and the relative angle between the ship's course and the wave direction. The long-term distribution is broken down into these factors, and a contribution rate analysis method for each factor in each load level in the long-term distribution is introduced. Based on the method used, the contribution rate of a specific mean wave period and a wave angle encountered is clarified, when the long-term distribution is larger than other wave periods and wave angles. The specific mean wave period and wave angle encountered are defined as the wave condition which governs the long-term distribution. The maximum wave-induced load in the vicinity of a probability of exceedance of around 10⁻⁸ in the long-term distribution is decided by the most severe short-term wave condition which has the largest significant wave height with a specific mean wave period. Based on S–N curves and Miner's rule, the relation between the fatigue damage and the supposed wave condition is examined. The contribution rate analysis method for fatigue damage is introduced. The governing wave condition and the most severe short-term wave condition also have an important effect on the fatigue damage. A simple estimation method for the long-term distribution, described by the Weibull distribution from the statistical properties of the most severe short-term wave condition, is introduced. Several examples show the applicability of the estimation method. Received: November 22, 2001 / Accepted: January 9, 2002     

Efficient estimation of extreme long-term stresses by considering a combination of longitudinal bending stresses

Longitudinal stresses due to combined horizontal and vertical bending moments in ships, corresponding to a return period of 20 years, are estimated by linear response analysis. In principle, the stress should be obtained by combining the stress in all sea states that can occur over a long-term period. A method to determine the desired long-term extreme stress by considering only a few short-term sea states is presented. The sea states have a certain probability of occurrence, and are each identified by a contour line in the (H _s, T _p)-plane. This approach makes it possible to estimate the extreme loads on the vessel in a practical and accurate manner. Moreover, it is shown that the long-term stress can be estimated by combining the individual long-term extreme stresses due to vertical and horizontal bending moments by using the sum-of-squares approach and accounting for the correlation between stresses. It was found that the correlation coefficient can be taken as the largest of the ones calculated along the contour line. It is shown that this correlation coefficient can even be approximated by the normalized phase angle at the wave length where the dominant response has its peak value. A comparison with the results obtained using well-known combination rules is presented. While linear analysis has been used here, it is believed that the approach can be generalized to stresses with nonlinear behavior, and hence represent a significant improvement in calculation efficiency. Received: September 18, 2001 / Accepted: December 18, 2001     

Generalized F distribution model with random parameters for estimating property damage cost in maritime accidents

ABSTRACT

This study develops a generalized F distribution model with random parameters to estimate the ship property damage cost in maritime traffic accidents with 10 years’ shipping accident data in the Fujian waters. Model results show that sinking and capsizing can incur the largest property damage cost, followed by collisions, contact, grounding and fire/explosion. There is a smaller ship property damage cost when the ship is moored or docked. The poor visibility has the least impact on the increment of ship property damage cost. Results reveal that the bigger property damage cost is associated with maritime accidents occurring in the Straits/sea areas and under the strong wind/wave condition and nighttime periods. It is also found that the lookout failure exhibits a bigger effect than the operation error. These results are helpful for policy makers to make efficient strategies for reducing property damage cost in maritime accidents. The developed model is useful for insurance companies in determining the appropriate ship insurance rates.     

江苏海域波浪分布特征研究

以1991—2011年风场数据为驱动,运用第3代波浪模型SWAN对江苏海域的波浪分布特征进行了模拟研究。首先运用基于浅水方程的Delft3D-flow模块对江苏海域的潮波进行模拟,给波浪模型提供一个准确的边界条件;其次运用SWAN模型对江苏海域的波浪进行模拟并与观测值进行比较;最后对江苏海域的波浪分布特征进行研究。结果表明:江苏海域年平均波高由南往北依次递减,年平均最大值为1.5 m左右,强浪向为NE向,四季中冬季的平均波浪最大,春秋次之,夏季最小。     

Estimation of directional wave spectra and hull structural responses based on measured hull data on 14,000 TEU large container ships

To ensure hull structural strength of container ships in association with their increase in size, it is very important to grasp the hull stress histories all over the hull structure in actual sea state. However, ordinary hull stress monitoring systems are insufficient for this purpose because of the small number of stress sensors actually practicable. Therefore, in this paper, we discuss an approach to reproduce the hull stress responses which are not measured based on the estimated wave spectrum from the limited measurement data. To achieve this, we introduce a new model to estimate directional wave spectra based on measured ship stress responses and ship response functions, and further we estimate other ship responses using the model. To model an arbitrarily shaped directional wave distribution, the 360° direction is discretized into 36 directions of 10-degree intervals instead of using a directional distribution function, and in each direction, the wave spectrum is represented using the Ochi (3P) spectrum with three parameters (average wave period, significant wave height, and kurtosis). The authors discuss the evaluation results based on two stress response combinations, and a comparison is made between the sea state estimates made by the proposed method and the ocean wave hindcast database (JWA). Furthermore, by comparing the significant values and the spectra of the measured response of the ship with the estimated response based on both the estimated sea state by the proposed method and the hindcast sea state, the accuracies of the proposed method and the hindcast method are discussed in terms of ship stress estimation at non-instrumented locations.     

Air–sea gas exchange at extreme wind speeds measured by autonomous oceanographic floats

Measurements of the air–sea fluxes of N₂ and O₂ were made in winds of 15–57 m s^− 1 beneath Hurricane Frances using two types of air-deployed neutrally buoyant and profiling underwater floats. Two “Lagrangian floats” measured O₂ and total gas tension (GT) in pre-storm and post-storm profiles and in the actively turbulent mixed layer during the storm. A single “EM-APEX float” profiled continuously from 30 to 200 m before, during and after the storm. All floats measured temperature and salinity. N₂ concentrations were computed from GT and O₂ after correcting for instrumental effects. Gas fluxes were computed by three methods. First, a one-dimensional mixed layer budget diagnosed the changes in mixed layer concentrations given the pre-storm profile and a time varying mixed layer depth. This model was calibrated using temperature and salinity data. The difference between the predicted mixed layer concentrations of O₂ and N₂ and those measured was attributed to air–sea gas fluxes F_BO and F_BN. Second, the covariance flux F_CO(z) = wO₂′(z) was computed, where w is the vertical motion of the water-following Lagrangian floats, O₂′ is a high-pass filtered O₂ concentration and (z) is an average over covariance pairs as a function of depth. The profile F_CO(z) was extrapolated to the surface to yield the surface O₂ flux F_CO(0). Third, a deficit of O₂ was found in the upper few meters of the ocean at the height of the storm. A flux F_SO, moving O₂ out of the ocean, was calculated by dividing this deficit by the residence time of the water in this layer, inferred from the Lagrangian floats. The three methods gave generally consistent results. At the highest winds, gas transfer is dominated by bubbles created by surface wave breaking, injected into the ocean by large-scale turbulent eddies and dissolving near 10-m depth. This conclusion is supported by observations of fluxes into the ocean despite its supersaturation; by the molar flux ratio F_BO/F_BN, which is closer to that of air rather than that appropriate for Schmidt number scaling; by O₂ increases at about 10-m depth along the water trajectories accompanied by a reduction in void fraction as measured by conductivity; and from the profile of F_CO(z), which peaks near 10 m instead of at the surface.At the highest winds O₂ and N₂ are injected into the ocean by bubbles dissolving at depth. This, plus entrainment of gas-rich water from below, supersaturates the mixed layer causing gas to flux out of the near-surface ocean. A net influx of gas results from the balance of these two competing processes. At lower speeds, the total gas fluxes, F_BO, F_BN and F_CO(0), are out of the ocean and downgradient.     

Identification and quantification of plankton bloom events in the Baltic Sea by continuous pCO2 and chlorophyll a measurements on a cargo ship

Continuous measurements of the surface water CO₂ partial pressure (pCO₂) and the chlorophyll a fluorescence were performed in the Baltic Sea using a fully automated measurement system deployed on a cargo ship. The ship commuted regularly at two day intervals between the Mecklenburg Bight (Luebeck) and the Gulf of Finland (Helsinki). The pCO₂ data collected during June 2003 and September 2004 were used to identify biological production events such as the spring bloom and the midsummer cyanobacteria bloom in five different sub-regions. To quantify the net biomass production, the decrease of the total CO₂, ^NC_T (normalized to a uniform alkalinity), during the production periods was calculated using the pCO₂, temperature and salinity records and the mean alkalinity. Taking into account the CO₂ air/sea exchange and the formation of dissolved organic carbon, a simple mass balance yielded the net production of particulate organic carbon which represents the total biomass. The chlorophyll a concentrations obtained from the fluorescence data showed peaks that in most cases coincided with the production maxima and thus supported the interpretation of the pCO₂ data. The production during both the spring bloom (2004) and the midsummer nitrogen fixation period (2003) increased by a factor of about three from the southwest to the northeast. For the spring bloom our estimates were significantly higher than those based on the winter nutrient supply and Redfield C / N and C / P ratios. This indicated the existence of additional nutrient sources such as dissolved organic nitrogen, early nitrogen fixation and preferential P mineralization. Midsummer ^NC_T minima were observed only in 2003 and used to quantify the nitrogen fixation activity and to characterize its interannual variability.     

Breaking wave at the bow of a fast displacement ship model

We investigated the flow structures under the bow wave generated by a fast displacement ship model (INSEAN model 2340) in the presence of wave breaking. The data acquired were also used for a detailed database for CFD validation. The mean and r.m.s. point-wise values of the wave height were measured by means of a finger probe. The intensity of the breaking wave was taken as the r.m.s value of the wave height. The mean velocity field under the free surface was measured at 0.15 L _PP and 0.2 L _PP downstream of the fore perpendicular by means of a 5-hole Pitot probe. Uncertainty assessment of the wave height and velocity field results was performed following the AIAA Standards S-071-1995. Preliminary CFD results from a RANSE code with a breaking model are shown in comparison with the measured data.     

基于谱的海浪模拟与谱估计

针对掠海飞行器系统仿真的需要,研究了海浪仿真方法。选取P—M谱作为海浪谱,通过海况确定波谱参数,在波谱仿真带宽内采用频率等分法对其进行分割,根据Longuest—Higgins海浪模拟模型进行仿真,得出了海浪时域波形。并采用Welch法进行波谱估计,从波谱能量度量,仿真精确度达到了99．22％。     

Discussion on the parameters of design waves

In order to respond the discredit on the design wave standard and to recommend new consideration on design wave parameters, based on the long-term distribution of statistic characteristics of waves and the short-term probability properties of sea state defined by giving the return period, the calculation of the return period, the height, the period, and the oceanic wave parameters of the design wave and the forecasting methods are discussed in this paper. To provide references for the operation reliability of floating structures in the extreme sea state, the method of determining the design wave parameters is resurveyed. A proposal is recommended that the design wave, which can be either significant wave with 500-year of the return period, or the maximum wave with 1/N of exceeding probability, 100-year of the return period, can be applied in the engineering design practice.     

Whitecap coverage in coastal environment for steady and unsteady wave field conditions

Breaking waves represent a “key” parameter for many applications involved with a large number of environmental phenomena. In particular, it is well recognized that the whitecap cover induced by breaking waves allows substantial enhancement of heat, momentum, gas and particle transfer at the air–sea interface. A large number of studies were conducted during the last decades on the variation of the whitecap fraction, commonly noted W. The results presented in this paper deal with the evolution of the whitecap coverage in coastal zone. In such areas, the wave field is often unsteady with an important variety of sea state developments. The present analysis is based on an extensive series of data obtained during an experimental campaign which took place on the Mediterranean coast in 2001. The results allow observation of the influence of the sea state conditions of the wave field on the whitecap coverage. In addition, this paper confirms the occurrence of a peak in the variations of the whitecap fraction with the wave age for coastal areas as suggested by Lafon et al. [Lafon, C., Piazzola, J., Forget, P., Le Calvé, O. and Despiau, S., 2004. Analysis of the variations of the whitecap fraction as measured in a coastal zone. Boundary-Layer Meteorol., 111: 339-360.]. A wave age dependent model for the whitecap fraction is then proposed, which takes into account both the wind and the wave influence, and hence, is characteristics of the different sea state conditions.     

Onboard tuning of vessel seakeeping model parameters and sea state characteristics

It is essential for a safe and cost-efficient marine operation to improve the knowledge about the real-time onboard vessel conditions. This paper proposes a novel algorithm for simultaneous tuning of important vessel seakeeping model parameters and sea state characteristics based on onboard vessel motion measurements and available wave data. The proposed algorithm is fundamentally based on the unscented transformation and inspired by the scaled unscented Kalman filter, which is very computationally efficient for large dimensional and nonlinear problems. The algorithm is demonstrated by case studies based on numerical simulations, considering realistic sensor noises and wave data uncertainties. Both long-crested and short-crested wave conditions are considered in the case studies. The system state of the proposed tuning framework consists of a vessel state vector and a sea state vector. The tuning results reasonably approach the true values of the considered uncertain vessel parameters and sea state characteristics, with reduced uncertainties. The quantification of the system state uncertainties helps to close a critical gap towards achieving reliability-based marine operations.     

Evaluating transfer velocity-wind speed relationship using a long-term series of direct eddy correlation CO2 flux measurements

Long-term observations of the marine atmospheric boundary layer were performed by an eddy correlation system, which was set-up on a platform in the Baltic Sea. In this experiment the three-dimensional wind vector and the turbulent fluxes of momentum, sensible and latent heat and CO₂ were measured for one and a half years. Simultaneously the CO₂ partial pressure p_CO2 in surface water was measured by a submersible autonomous moored instrument for CO₂ at the platform in 7-m depth. The high-resolution eddy correlation measurements of the atmospheric CO₂ flux F_CO2, together with the measurements of the CO₂ partial pressure differences between air and sea Δp_CO2 led to a long-term data set which provided the possibility to investigate the parameterization of the CO₂ transfer velocity k as a function of 10-m wind speed u in a statistical manner. From half-hour mean CO₂ fluxes and CO₂ partial pressure differences, k was calculated using k = F_CO2 / (K₀Δp_CO2), with K₀ the CO₂ solubility. The half-hour mean data points, used for the determination of the k–u parameterization, show large scatter. However, assuming a linear, quadratic dependency the analysis yields: k₆₆₀ = 0.365u² + 0.46u (k at 20 °C and salinity 35 psu) with a correlation coefficient of r² = 0.81. The large scatter indicates that the kinetics of the air–sea CO₂ transfer velocity is not only a function of the wind speed alone, but might also be controlled by other environmental parameters and mechanisms, such as sea state and surface coverage with surfactants.     

Rigid moorings in shallow water: A wave power application. Part I: Experimental verification of methods

Experimental work carried out at 1:60 scale in a wave flume assessed the pitch motion and anchor loading of 3 articulated tower installations in 50 m water depth while being exposed to north Atlantic storms with H_s of 15.2 m and T_p of 18.4 s. The three installations differ only in that their mass and buoyancy characteristics provide a natural period in pitch at equilibrium of 13 s, 20 s and 34 s respectively. It is verified that the dominant behaviour can be simulated by a relatively simple mathematical model, allowing the critical parameters of peak anchor loads and pitch angles to be calculated and extrapolated to full scale. It is demonstrated from the experimental and simulation results that the mass characteristics of a non surface piercing tower can be used to offset some of the challenges of moving to shallow water. If done correctly, it is possible to keep horizontal anchor loads under control and reduce vortex-induced transverse loading at the expense of increased pitch motions. Overall, the use of articulated tower installations in water depths of 50 m would appear to be technically feasible, even in exposed areas. The limitations on the size of such structures and the consequences of the resulting pitch accelerations and induced anchor loads are the subject of further study. It is proposed that the model verified herein can be used to further assess their potential at delivering viable wave power position mooring systems.