Failure rates and data driven policies for vehicle safety inspections in Pennsylvania

Rail, truck, commercial bus, and aircraft have federally mandated safety inspection programs in the United States, while inspections of personal vehicles, which make up the majority of passenger miles, are optionally imposed at the state level. In recent years, some states have chosen to eliminate the vehicle safety inspection program because of budget constraints and concerns about program effectiveness. Currently, 26 states have a schedule for conducting safety inspections, but Pennsylvania is one of thirteen states that currently require all personal light duty vehicles to be inspected every year. The remaining states have completely eliminated safety inspection programs. However, as automobiles become safer, Pennsylvania legislators are now pushing to phase out the inspection program to reduce the costs of owning a vehicle. This study combines Pennsylvania vehicle registration data with two large samples of results from state safety inspections. We find that the state safety inspection fail rate for light-duty vehicles is 12–18%, well above the often-cited rate of 2%. Vehicles that are older than three years old or have more than about 30,000 miles can have much higher rates. When analyzing new vehicles, less than or equal to one year old, it is found that even these vehicles have a failure rate greater than zero. Furthermore, while the vehicle fleet appears to be getting safer over the past few years by improvements in technology or other external circumstances, the inspection failure rate does not appear to be trending toward zero in the near future. We also show that accurate inspection data is limited and often incorrectly analyzed. Lastly, the importance of vehicle maintenance over a vehicle’s lifetime is proven to be evident, since regular usage causes vehicles to deteriorate. We conclude that vehicle safety inspections should continue to be implemented in order to keep driving conditions safe.     

漏磁检测技术在管道检测中的应用及影响因素分析

阐述了漏磁检测的原理,介绍了基于漏磁原理的检测系统组成,以及在长输管道及工业管道检测中的工程应用。详细分析了漏磁检测技术的主要影响因素。指出国内漏磁检测技术领域与国外存在较大差距。国内管道内检测已进入立法阶段,相关标准的初稿已基本完成,未来漏磁检测技术将在维护管道安全生产上发挥越来越重要的作用。     

Valuing the Prevention of Road Accidents in Belgium

Abstract

In a recent international comparison of the social costs of road accidents, Trawén et al. (2003) noted that cost data are not available for Belgium and, by consequence, play no part in Belgian policy‐making. The purpose of the present paper is, therefore, to value the costs per casualty type and per accident in Belgium. Empirical data are provided on human and economic production losses as well as on direct accident costs such as medical costs, hospital visiting costs, accelerated funeral costs, property damage, administrative costs of insurance companies, litigation costs, police and fire department costs, and congestion costs. In Belgium the marginal unit value of preventing a road casualty is estimated at €2 004 799 per fatal casualty, €725 512 per seriously injured and €20 943 per slightly injured victim. The unit cost per accident amounts to €2 355 763, €850 033, €34 944 and €2571 for fatal, serious, slight injury and property damage only accidents, respectively. These results are consistent with valuations reported in other high‐income countries. Finally, the total costs of road accidents in 2002 are valued at €7.2 billion (2004 prices), or 2.6% of gross domestic product.     

Vehicle insurance and the risk of road traffic accidents

Given the upward trend in incidences of road traffic accidents (RTAs) over recent years, in order to mitigate the financial losses arising from such accidents, governments around the world nowadays generally encourage, or even require, drivers to purchase appropriate vehicle insurance. The primary aim of this study is to examine whether RTAs are directly related to the purchase of vehicle insurance, with our examination of data on vehicle damage insurance policyholders revealing that those drivers who purchase more insurance coverage have a higher probability of being involved in accidents, as a result of which, they will tend to submit more claims. This indicates that insurance coverage might contain information which can be used to assess the probability risk levels of RTAs. We also find that drivers with less safety awareness will tend to purchase more coverage, and that those who purchase more coverage will, in turn, tend to have more accidents and submit more claims. Our findings, which provide a number of road traffic policy implications, would appear to justify the use of the bonus–malus system.     

Position synchronization for track geometry inspection data via big-data fusion and incremental learning

Track geometry inspection data is important for managing railway infrastructure integrity and operational safety. In order to use track geometry inspection data, having accurate and reliable position information is a prerequisite. Due to various issues identified in this research, the positions of different track geometry inspections need to be aligned and synchronized to the same location before being used for track degradation modeling and maintenance planning. This is referred to as “position synchronization”, a long-standing important research problem in the area of track data analytics. With the aim of advancing the state of the art in research on this subject, we propose a novel approach to more accurately and expediently synchronize track geometry inspection positions via big-data fusion and incremental learning algorithms. Distinguishing it from other relevant studies in the literature, our proposed approach can simultaneously address data exceptions, channel offsets and local position offsets between any two inspections. To solve the Position Synchronization Model (PS-Model), an Incremental Learning Algorithm (IL-Algorithm) is developed to handle the “lack of memory” challenge for the fast computation of massive data. A case study is developed based on a dataset with data size of 18 GB, including 58 inspections between February 2014 and July 2016 over 323 km (200 miles) of tracks belonging to China High Speed Railways. The results show that our proposed model performs robustly against data exceptions via the use of multi-channel information fusion. Also, the position synchronization error using our proposed approach is within 0.15 meters (0.5 feet). Our proposed data-driven, incremental learning algorithm can quickly solve the complex, data-extensive, position synchronization problem, using an average of 0.1 s for processing one additional kilometer of track. In general, the data analysis methodology and algorithm presented in this paper are also suitable to address other relevant position synchronization problems in transportation engineering, especially when the dataset contains multiple channels of sensors and abnormal data outliers.     

Evaluation of total risk exposure and insurance premiums in the maritime industry

The empirical evaluation of maritime risk exposure is based on the monetary value at risk (MVR) that incorporates individual safety quality data of about 130,000 vessels, insurable values related to various potential damages, and proxies for fractions of values lost at incidents. MVR provides a tool to enhance strategic planning of maritime administrations and insurance providers, which is illustrated by a high level comparison of annual risk exposure with insurance premiums for 2010–2014. The analysis reveals a global annual insurable value of 30.6 trillion USD with associated annual MVR of 38.8 billion USD for very serious and serious incidents. Although oil tankers show the highest risk exposure (1.75 million USD per tanker per year), safety qualities are found to be best for this ship type (1.4% annual incident risk) and worst for container vessels (2.8%). Annual growth rates in total risk exposure are mostly positive with highest value for dry bulk carriers (27.8%), whereas risk exposure tends to decline for pollution of oil tankers (−2.0%) and passenger vessels (−11.3%), and for loss of life of oil tankers (−1.9%) and dry bulk carriers (−1.4%). Comparison across administrative dimensions reveals that most risk exposure lies with old open registries and with beneficial owners and the Document of Compliance companies located in high income countries. Comparison with global insurance premiums suggests reasonably adequate coverage of maritime risks (excluding cargo) with under-insurance of risk by around 5% (about 1 billion USD per year), with some uncertainties remaining for actual loss fractions of the involved damages.     

Policing the poor: The impact of vehicle emissions inspection programs across income

Comparing vehicle emissions inspection results with vehicle owner income shows that the Arizona vehicle emissions inspection program constrains the vehicle repair decisions of people in the low end of the income distribution more than people in the high end. Individuals who live in areas with lower annual income are both (i) more likely to drive vehicles that fail emissions inspections at a higher average rate, and (ii) more likely to fail emissions inspections conditional on vehicle characteristics. The top income quintile fails emissions inspections 20% less often than the bottom income quintile even when controlling for observable vehicle characteristics. This implies that owner characteristics, in addition to observable vehicle characteristics, have a non-negligible impact on vehicle emissions rates. Therefore, the impact of programs designed to reduce vehicle emissions could be greater if participation were subject to a means test.     

Global ship risk profiles: Safety and the marine environment

This article uses visualization techniques to investigate global ship risk profiles and their changes over time. With a unique data set of 49,151 observations, the authors link changes in risk profiles to legislative developments and industry actions, as well as identify areas prone to general safety, loss of life, and pollution risks. Improved risk profiles over time have resulted from legislative measures, including the International Safety Management Code, the Oil Pollution Act, amendments to the International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships, and the introduction of port state controls and industry vetting inspections.     

埋地燃气管道综合检验检测技术研究

随着技术的进步以及国家能源政策的调整，埋地管道的安全运行日益得到了管道使用单位和政府相关职能部门的重视。综述了目前国内外常用的埋地钢质管道检验检测方法的原理及其优缺点，并结合作者的研究成果，提出了埋地管道综合检验检测技术组合方法。     

A Multiple Criteria Decision‐Making Approach for Prioritizing Accident Hotspots in the Absence of Crash Data

Abstract

In an efficient transportation system, traffic safety is an important issue and it is influenced by many factors. In a country like Iran, until now safety improvements are mainly concentrated on road engineering activities, without much attention for vehicle technology or driving behaviour. One important aspect of road safety engineering activities is the so‐called treatment of hotspots or dangerous accident locations. Until recently, accident hotspots were identified and remedied by the esxperts’ personal judgements and a handful of statistics without taking into account other important factors such as geometric and traffic conditions of the road network. This paper therefore aims to define and identify the criteria for accident hotspots, then giving a value to each criterion in order to develop a model to prioritize accident hotspots when traffic accident data is not available. To do this, the ‘Delphi’ method has been adopted and a prioritization model is produced by the use of a ‘Multiple Criteria Decision‐Making’ method. The procedure is illustrated on a collection of 20 road sections in Iran. In addition, the model is validated against an existing database of road sections containing safe locations and hotspots. Finally, a sensitivity analysis is carried out on the proposed method.     

Calibrating trust through knowledge: Introducing the concept of informed safety for automation in vehicles

There has been an increasing focus on the development of automation in vehicles due its many potential benefits like safety, improved traffic efficiency, reduced emissions etc. One of the key factors influencing public acceptance of automated vehicle technologies is their level of trust. Development of trust is a dynamic process and needs to be calibrated to the correct levels for safe deployment to ensure appropriate use of such systems. One of the factors influencing trust is the knowledge provided to the driver about the system’s true capabilities and limitations. After a 56 participants driving simulator study, the authors found that with the introduction of knowledge about the true capabilities and limitations of the automated system, trust in the automated system increased as compared to when no knowledge was provided about the system. Participants experienced two different types of automated systems: low capability automated system and high capability automated system. Interestingly, with the introduction of knowledge, the average trust levels for both low and high capability automated systems were similar. Based on the experimental results, the authors introduce the concept of informed safety, i.e., informing the drivers about the safety limits of the automated system to enable them to calibrate their trust in the system to an appropriate level.     

Do people drive safer when accidents are more expensive: Testing for moral hazard in experience rating schemes

Using individual policies and claims data from the Croatian mandatory motor insurance we test the theoretical proposition that under moral hazard, experience rated pricing scheme should generate the negative state dependence in claims, i.e. that drivers should drive more safely after they had an accident. The empirical challenge in these tests is to disentangle the state dependence from unobserved heterogeneity. We propose a simple approach based on the explicit reliance on the cost of future accidents function which is used to filter out the pure incentives effect, whereas the bonus-malus scale is used to control for pure heterogeneity. Our results confirm the existence of negative dependence in claims indicating the presence of significant moral hazard effect. Increasing a 3-year cost of having an accident by approximately US$20 decreases the probability of having an accident by 6.5%.     

非完整检测数据条件下的含缺陷在役压力管道失效分析

由于含缺陷在役压力管道的焊缝数量较大，而且对焊缝检测只进行抽检，本文在非完整检测数据基础上，建立适当概率模型。结合有限元软件ANSYS二次开发程序，对不完整检测数据的管道进行概率建模分析，充分考虑管道的我荷特点、几何特点以及缺陷的类型和特点，将管系中各缺陷安全状况，失效风险有机结合起来，计算得出存在单一缺陷和不完整检测数据压力管线的断裂失效概率。这对于制定具有针对性的检修计划，加强管线维护有重要的现实意义。     

Miles,speed, and technology: Traffic safety under oligopolistic insurance

We study road safety when insurance companies have market power, and can influence drivers’ behavior via insurance premiums. We obtain first- and second-best premiums for different insurance market structures. The insurance program consists of an insurance premium, and marginal dependencies of that premium on speed and own safety technology choice of drivers. A private monopolist internalizes collision externalities up to the point where compensations to users’ benefit matches the full (intangible) costs; in oligopolistic markets, insurers do not fully internalize collision externalities. Analytical results demonstrate how insurance firms’ incentives to influence traffic safety coincide with or deviate from socially optimal incentives. Our results may be useful for design of pay-as-you-speed and alike insurances as well as policies related to driving safety.     

高速公路连续长下坡路段安全评价与整治措施研究

《高速公路连续长下坡路段安全评价与整治措施研究》项目针对山区公路连续长下坡路段事故率高、伤亡率大、交通安全设施设置针对性不强等问题,通过大量事故调研及资料调查,采用汽车行驶动力学、仿真计算等技术手段对长下坡路段的安全水平评价方法等内容进行系统研究。文章着重介绍了该项目的研究现状、研究内容、技术路线、关键技术、研究成果及创新点。     

Short Sea Shipping’s Green Label at Risk

Abstract

Shifting cargo from land‐based modes to maritime transport has been a prioritized policy in many policy papers to make transport more environmental friendly. Traditional calculations of emissions per transport capacity unit have supported this. However, maritime transport may stand to loose its good environmental reputation in comparison to road transport due to (1) the sluggish processes in maritime environmental policies and the low ambition level of current regulations, (2) the much higher focus on improving the environmental efficiency of the road haulage industry, (3) the much longer economic life of vessels compared to trucks, and (4) focus on faster vessels that increase the average fuel consumption of the sea transport alternative. Through a realistic case study, the energy efficiency and emissions of alternative multimodal transport chains is presented to illustrate these points.     

复杂岩溶隧道突水突泥防灾报警系统设计

2006年1月21日,宜万铁路马鹿箐隧道突发大规模突水突泥,造成了重大经济损失和人员伤亡,从而引起了部各级领导的高度重视。宜万铁路是在建的地质条件最为复杂的线路之一,隧道工程多发育岩溶,具有突发性突水突泥的可能,修建风险大。为了进一步规避施工风险,减少施工过程发生突水突泥造成经济损失和人员伤亡,设计中根据隧道工程地质、水文地质,以及隧道工程特征,对岩溶隧道进行了风险等级划分,并针对Ⅰ级风险隧道进行突水突泥防灾报警系统设计(系统包括预测预报、注浆堵水、安全逃生三个方面),该设计在国内外尚属首次,设计成果在宜万铁路进行了应用,并取得了一定的成效。     

The evolution of urban traffic control: changing policy and technology

Abstract

The history of urban traffic control (UTC) throughout the past century has been a continued race to keep pace with ever more complex policy objectives and consistently increasing vehicle demand. Many benefits can be observed from an efficient UTC system, such as reduced congestion, increased economic efficiency and improved road safety and air quality.

There have been significant advances in vehicle detection and communication technologies which have enabled a series of step changes in the capabilities of UTC systems, from early (fixed time) signal plans to modern integrated systems. A variety of UTC systems have been implemented throughout the world, each with individual strengths and weaknesses; this paper seeks to compare the leading commercial systems (and some less well known systems) to highlight the key characteristics and differences before assessing whether the current UTC systems are capable of meeting modern transport policy obligations and desires.

This paper then moves on to consider current and future transport policy and the technological landscape in which UTC will need to operate over the coming decades, where technological advancements are expected to move UTC from an era of limited data availability to an era of data abundance.     

海洋柔性管检测技术现状

海洋柔性管因其良好的结构性能及经济性能成为海洋油气资源输送的主要设备之一.但由于复杂的铺设环境以及恶劣的运行工况,柔性管损坏因素较多,失效原因复杂.由于柔性管的复杂结构使得柔性管检测以及现场维修相对困难.文中介绍了外观检测、水压试验、超声导波检测、漏磁检测以及涡流检测等一系列检测手段和方法,为作业者检测柔性管道缺陷,了解运行状况,进行完整性管理提供了依据.     

埋地压力管道完整性检测及其应用

介绍了基于潜在危害识别的埋地管道完整性检测技术，及其在一条复杂环境原油管道上的应用。通过对管道已有资料的收集分析综合，确定出目标管道存在的主要潜在危害类型，有针对性地对管道潜在危害因素开展完整性检测，并在检测基础上做相关分析评价，对检测到的管道安全隐患实施维护改造，提高了管道的安全性，获得了良好的经济和社会效益。