Return lead–lag and volatility transmission in shipping freight markets

This study investigates the return lead–lag and volatility transmission between dry bulk shipping and container shipping freight markets over the period before, during and after the 2008 financial tsunami. Both cointegration analysis and the Granger causality test are applied to explore the lead–lag relationship between the Baltic dry index (BDI) and the China containerized freight index (CCFI). Besides, in the study we employed GARCH–BEKK model, which allows for transmission in freight volatility. On the whole, the empirical results show that the BDI reflects the economic climate earlier than the CCFI during the financial tsunami, whereas the CCFI leads the BDI after the financial tsunami. The price formation hypothesis could well explain the relationship. Moreover, volatility spillovers are found in most subperiods. The dynamics of the conditional volatilities differ, but causality links in the variance are found to be strong and bidirectional in normal periods, and unidirectional during the financial tsunami. Therefore, the occurrence of the financial tsunami could be regarded as an interference factor.     

An econometric analysis for container shipping market

This article presents an econometric analysis for the fluctuation of the container freight rate due to the interactions between the demand for container transportation services and the container fleet capacity. The demand is derived from international trade and is assumed to be exogenous, while the fleet capacity increases with new orders made two years before, proportional to the industrial profit. Assuming the market clears each year, the shipping freight rate will change with the relative magnitude of shifts in the demand and fleet capacity.

This model is estimated using the world container shipping market statistics from 1980 to 2008, applying the three-stage least square method. The estimated parameters of the model have high statistical significance, and the overall explanatory power of the model is above 90%. The short-term in-sample prediction of the model can largely replicate the container shipping market fluctuation in terms of the fleet size dynamics and the freight rate fluctuation in the past 20 years. The prediction of the future market trend reveals that the container freight rate should continue to decrease in the coming three years if the demand for container transportation services grows at less than 8%.     

Are there bubbles in the shipping freight market?

ABSTRACT

This paper addresses the reconsideration of price bubbles specific to the shipping freight market based on the method of the Generalized Supremum Augmented Dickey–Fuller (GSADF). This approach offers the opportunity to recognize multiple bubbles and set their corresponding original and final dates. Empirical results reveal that four bubbles existed in the shipping freight market between October 1988 and February 2018 in which freight deviated from fundamental values. Strong demand (especially in China), the supply capacity, crude oil prices and U.S. dollar fluctuations are potential explanations for the first three bubbles. The global financial crisis that burst in 2008 is the major factor results in the last bubble. Hence, we must distinguish the potential reasons of bubbles in different periods and take measures such as promoting economic multipolarization, strengthening the bargaining power of China, building an effective information transfer system, employing financial derivatives and accelerating the consolidation of the shipping industry to alleviate the negative influences on global seaborne trade.     

Meta-frontier function approach to operational efficiency for shipping companies

ABSTRACT

This study uses a meta-frontier function approach to estimate operational efficiency and technology gaps for shipping companies. Researchers have evaluated the relative efficiency of shipping firms with the assumption that shipping firms operate under one frontier technology. However, the assumption of one frontier technology is being argued by efficiency literature. Therefore, this study estimates relative efficiency of shipping firms in different market segments (dry bulk, liquid bulk, and containerized cargo), possibly operating with different technologies and, hence, under different frontiers. This study uses a meta-frontier function approach that allows us to distinguish separate frontiers for different groups and decompose efficiency scores relative to the meta-frontier. Data used in this study is collected from Thomson One Banker from 2001-2013 in the form of unbalanced panel data. Empirical results suggest that dry bulk firms’ production technology is more advanced than others and the production frontier is the closest to that of the meta-frontier. In addition, efficiency scores are all low, but containerized cargo firms achieve higher technological efficiency than the other two groups. It is also suggested that containerized cargo and liquid bulk firms should prioritize improvements in their production technology and dry bulk firms should prioritize improving group efficiency.     

Cost analysis of bulk cargo containerization

ABSTRACT

Bulk cargo containerization (BCC) involves changes in the transportation mode of container shipping for cargo that uses bulk carriers without packing. This topic has recently attracted considerable attention as an alternative transportation method for container cargo. BCC is advantageous because it can address imbalances in the amount of cargo conveyed between the main and back hauls, thereby improving efficiency. A previous survey among companies involved in cargo shipping revealed that in addition to ocean freight, vanning and devanning, and customs clearance costs, consignees’ decisions were the key factor in selecting transport modes. The present study aims to clarify the cost competitiveness of container shipping and identify cost reductions that may increase the use of BCC. To quantitatively check the results of the survey employed in this study, we constructed a model based on consignees’ and container shipping companies’ costs to determine the choice of transport mode for back-haul trade, then examined the incentives for consignees and shipping companies. We found that BCC can be realized by cost reduction on the part of the consignee and profit improvement on the part of the container shipping company for some routes and goods. Although reducing the freight rate would effectively promote BCC, reducing other costs would not have the same effect.     

国际集装箱运价管理机制的探讨——兼论运价报备制度实施的作用与实质

通过对试行的运价报备制度的作用与实质的分析提出了在目前国际集装箱运输市场以运价报备制度作为运价管理模式是合适的。运价报备制度比传统的各种运价管理模式刚性小、易于被业界各方接受,又可以作为国家宏观管理的一种政策手段,为长期稳定集装箱运价起到积极的作用,在目前运价全面放开的市场背景下还可以作为一种新运价管理模式。     

The study on the compilation of the China container freight index

Although there exists many kinds of shipping freight indexes, the compilation of a container freight index is still not shown. As such, this paper has taken a further study on the compilation of the China container freight index, which includes selection of calculation formula, determination of freight type, the choice of samples of shipping lines and rules of revision of the index.     

The study on the compilation of the China container freight index

Although there exists many kinds of shipping freight indexes, the compilation of a container freight index is still not shown. As such, this paper has taken a further study on the compilation of the China container freight index, which includes selection of calculation formula, determination of freight type, the choice of samples of shipping lines and rules of revision of the index.     

U.S. import/export container flow modeling and disruption analysis

International containerized freight movement is a vital part of the supply chain for many companies, and a critical element of moving consumer goods to points of retail sale within the U.S. Containerized imports also present a clear security concern (e.g., terrorists attempting to ship “dirty bombs,” chemical, biological or even nuclear weapons, into the U.S. in a shipping container). The goal of the research presented here is to create a modeling tool for analyzing flows of U.S. imports and exports of containerized freight, and the potential changes in those flows under a variety of conditions (e.g., port disruptions, extensive security-related delays, etc.). Our focus is on movements through maritime container ports, and not overland movements between the U.S. and Canada or Mexico.The network model, referred to as the System for Import/Export Routing and Recovery Analysis (SIERRA), represents container movements between the U.S. and 46 other countries that account for the vast majority of U.S. imports and exports. The SIERRA model is a network equilibrium model that predicts flows between foreign countries and North American ports, the total volumes handled (import and export) by each port, the modal volumes (truck and rail) moving domestically into and out of each port, and volumes between each port and a set of transportation analysis zones within the U.S.     

我国集装箱班轮运输市场垄断程度研究

从市场集中度指数、市场力量和垄断行为3个方面考察我国国际集装箱班轮运输市场的垄断程度，显然高于将全球作为“一个”市场的程度。从市场集中度指数可以认为我国班轮运输市场已经达到中型寡头垄断程度。我国远洋班轮航线的勒纳指数高于0．6，甚至接近于1，说明班轮公司市场力量之强大。而我国现行的法律法规中没有为班轮运输市场的买方预设运价谈判和利益诉求机制，则使运输需求快速增长的中国外贸企业明显处于弱势地位。     

A continuous berth template design model with multiple wharfs

ABSTRACT

Berth planning plays an important role in improving the efficiency of a container terminal. This study focuses on the berth template problem (BTP), which determines the berthing windows of the calling ships within a planning horizon (e.g. a week) in a cyclical way. As a mid-term tactical decision problem, BTP provides the decision support for a terminal operator to negotiate the contracts with the shipping lines. This study develops an integer programming (IP) model aiming to minimize the total deviation, given the ship-dependent target times preferred by the shipping lines. To validate the model and illustrate the benefits of its use, we perform a numerical experiment based on operational data of a specific container terminal in Southeast Asia. Two IP-based heuristic methods are developed to take into account the decision framework of terminal operators in reaction to demand increases. The experiment results indicate that the model and the solution approaches can enhance the resource utilization and operational efficiency of container terminals.     

金融危机时期国际干散货船舶运输市场状况与对策

2008年金融危机以来,世界经贸形势错综复杂,国际干散货船舶运输市场陷入低迷,BDI指数持续低谷盘整。研究了国际干散货运输需求情况和运力增长规模,剖析了国际干散货运价走势,并针对金融危机时期国际干散货船舶运输市场状况,提出了金融危机时期国际干散货船舶运输的发展对策。     

Valuation mismatch and shipping q indicator for shipping asset management

ABSTRACT

This paper aims to develop an adaptation of the Tobin Q investment model for the shipping asset management in order to monitor valuation mismatch and bubble pricing of shipping assets. In this circumstance, the market prices of various shipping assets (e.g., Capesize or Panamax dry bulk carriers in different age profiles) are compared to the measured long-term asset value with second-hand ship prices. The mark-to-market prices of shipping assets are led by current market trends and freight rates, while the long-term asset value is estimated by using past data under certain assumptions (mean reversion, trend reversion). The discrepancy between market prices and the long-term nominal value of a shipping asset reflects any mispricing, which in turn sheds light on investment timing and market entry-exit decision.     

Evaluation of risk attitude in the shipping freight market under uncertainty

ABSTRACT

The main purpose of this study is to examine how market participants take risks, in other words, what their risk attitude/preference is, and how their risk attitude could be related to the shipping freight and other markets. To address them, we calibrated the risk attitude of participants in shipping freight markets from 2007 to 2013, and provided an example of the application of risk attitude. For market participants, risk attitude/preference has an important role in understanding shipping freight markets and managing risks under uncertainty. However, risk attitude is not directly observable. To achieve this, we applied a framework that consists of structural model and calibration with market data. We interpreted risk attitude and confirmed that a structural break occurred around 2008 for the calibrated risk attitude parameter. The average risk attitude of market participants tended to be more risk-averse after 2010. We conducted an additional analysis to provide an example of the application of calibrated risk attitude, using structural equation modeling to calculate a latent variable that reflected other commodity markets. We compared the risk attitude parameter and the latent variable, and clarified the relationship between the risk attitude parameter and commodity markets.     

Asian hub/feeder nets: the dynamics of restructuring

The emergence of hub/feeder networks in the Singapore-Japan corridor through the 1970s and 1980s reflected not only the rapid growth of containerized cargo in regional Southeast and East Asia but also the exceptional importance of Far East/transPacific and Far East/Europe mainline shipping services in structuring these networks. This paper argues that the mid-1990s is a defining moment in the restructuring of these networks; that the period represents, in fact, a convergence of a number of different though related trends impacting on the regional shipping market. More particularly, continuing high growth rates of containerized cargo have not only spawned new ports but have also increased the proportion of ports handling threshold volumes of containers for which mainline calls, rather than handling thfeeder operations, are justified. Further, the quite dramatic retionalization of already large container shipping lines into mergers and alliances bestows a new level of market power that is able to underwrite major changes in shipping schedules, port rotations and feeder linkages. This paper speculates that these developments are generating, and will continue to generate new, hierarchically organized port/shipping networks in which high order networks will include high efficiency/high cost operations; and lower order networks will include a mix of hub and direct-call ports that will focus on different market segments.     

Development of early warning index in Korean shipping industry by using signal approach

ABSTRACT

The study aims to investigate and prevent shipping companies’ insolvency that can be derived from depressed market sentiment in the shipping industry. For this purpose, the paper focuses on developing an early warning index. The main factors that contribute to the change in the shipping industry are derived. Sixty independent variables were accounted in the development of early warning index, some of which are shipping, shipbuilding, and finance. Suggestions drew from the result of early warning index are described as below. Firstly, the results of a signal approach towards independent variables showed lowest the signal error value in newbuilding price of containership, bunker price, Commodity Research Bureau (CRB) commodity index, and order book of bulkship. These indicators have proven to be a high level of variation factor during shipping markets’ crisis. Secondly, the early warning index confirmed that it preceded by 6 months compared to probability of default. Thirdly, in order to validate the accuracy of the early warning index, the adequacy of the model was tested using a mean square error and time lag correlations. As a result of the verification, value proved to be at a high level of compliance at 0.097.     

航运市场呼唤中国的航运运价指数期货

随着全球一体化与世界经济的迅猛发展，世界范围内的贸易不断扩大，2000年海运物流量达到58．8亿t^[1]。由于航运价格受到许多因素的影响而变化，它的变化对货主、船东与雇船者带来许多不确定的风险，通过航运运价指数期货可以降低航运业的风险，从而保障航运市场的稳定持续发展。     

Optimal container ship size: a global cost minimization approach

ABSTRACT

Currently, the best container ship size in a service is determined mainly by the liner operator, considering only the economies of scale of ships. Its external diseconomies to the ports and shippers are usually not considered in the decision-making process, which may reduce the overall efficiency and lead to global nonoptimality. This study incorporates the cost to the shipping companies at the main lines, ports, and feeder services, as well as the external costs to shippers and ports in a hub-and-spoke network, and determines the best ship size and the number of weekly services to minimize the overall costs. The external cost to the shippers in the feeder ports is assumed to be proportional to the feeder cost, and a sensitivity analysis is provided. The maximum container ship size is estimated according to different levels of freight demand. A numerical analysis shows that the optimal size should be smaller than the current biggest container ships in service.     

中日班轮航线运价问题研究

通过中日航线的集装箱运价指数与中韩航线对比,反映中日航线实际运价状况,以市场集中度测算反映市场结构特点。中日航线的市场结构呈现低集中度特点,这决定了在市场竞争程度较高,在服务产品同质性较高的条件下,价格成为主要的竞争手段,中日航线运价水平整体上处于正常状态。政府主管机关对运价的监管涉及运价水平、稳定性、运价的合理构成以及暗中回扣等问题,运价的合理构成和暗中回扣应是重点规范的领域,有必要考虑运价报备制度的价值。