西非铝矾土进口海运供应链风险评估

在分析从西非到我国终端客户的铝钒土进口海运供应链(Bauxit Import Maritime Supply Chain,BIMSC)内部和外部影响因素的基础上,采用故障模式与影响分析(Failure Mode and Effects Analysis,FMEA)和模糊贝叶斯网络(Fuzzy Bayesian Network,FBN)相结合的方法,建立BIMSC风险评估方法的概念框架。采用FMEA辨识潜在的失效模式,并剖析失效原因和后果;根据失效模式潜在的因果关系建立贝叶斯网络;利用三角模糊数处理表征风险参数的不确定性,评估BIMSC风险水平,并进行敏感性分析,确定风险因子排序。研究结果表明,港口操作中的违规操作、违规指挥、货物易流态化和安全管理问题是主要的风险因素。     

FPSO关键系统风险分析(英文)

Risk analysis of key systems have become a growing topic late of because of the development of offshore structures. Equipment failures of offloading system and fire accidents were analyzed based on the floating production, storage and offloading (FPSO) features. Fault tree analysis (FTA), and failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) methods were examined based on information already researched on modules of relex reliability studio (RRS). Equipment failures were also analyzed qualitatively by establishing a fault tree and Boolean structure function based on the shortage of failure cases, statistical data, and risk control measures examined. Failure modes of fire accident were classified according to the different areas of fire occurrences during the FMEA process, using risk priority number (RPN) methods to evaluate their severity rank. The qualitative analysis of FTA gave the basic insight of forming the failure modes of FPSO offloading, and the fire FMEA gave the priorities and suggested processes. The research has practical importance for the security analysis problems of FPSO.     

A quantitative risk analysis by using interval type-2 fuzzy FMEA approach: the case of oil spill

ABSTRACT

Risk assessment in maritime domain is one of the most cited topics since maritime transportation poses potential hazard for human life, marine environment and property. To mitigate risk and enhance safety awareness in maritime transportation, safety researchers have been seeking proactive solutions. This article prompts a quantitative risk-based approach combining interval type-2 fuzzy sets (IT2FSs) with failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) to perform a comprehensive risk analysis. Thus, potential failure modes and their effects are revealed by calculating risk prioritisation numbers (RPNs). Whilst the FMEA method provides a robust risk analysing tool with relevant control options, the IT2FSs deals with ambiguity and vagueness of linguistic assessment of decision-makers through the FMEA. Hence, expert’s linguistic assessment in risk assessment can be transformed into useful information in terms of enhancing safety and pollution prevention in maritime industry. To demonstrate the proposed approach, potential failures and effects of a real shipboard oil spill case are handled. The findings show that incomplete information exchanged with local maritime authorities, malfunction of oil skimmer and poor organization of shoreline clean-up team are the most important failures during case of oil spill. The proposed approach provides not only theoretical insight into the maritime transportation industry but also practical contributions to chemical/oil tanker safety and environmental protection by mitigating risk in terms of technical or operational aspects.     

FMEA和FCE方法在动力定位控制系统中的应用

针对传统的FMEA(故障模式与影响分析)过于定性化、主观化以及不能进行量化分析的问题,本文提出了一种量化FMEA风险等级数的评定方法,并通过层次分析法(AHP)和模糊综合评判法(FCE)的理论分析,构建了动力定位控制系统的综合评判模型,将FMEA的结果进行了量化分析,从而能更好地预防故障的发生。以Arrow号近海支援船DP2动力定位(DP)控制系统为例,选择操作站操作面板为研究对象,对该系统的各个组成部分及其模块进行了故障模式与影响分析并做出评判,列出了可能发生的故障模式,确定了故障等级并提出了建议措施,其分析结果证明FMEA和模糊综合评判法是有效的。通过对动力定位控制系统进行故障模式与影响分析(FMEA),可以对动力定位控制系统和设备进行改进、维护和完善,以提高其可靠性,延长设备的使用寿命,提高动力定位船舶的安全水平。     

A fuzzy failure mode and effects approach to analyse concentrated inspection campaigns on board ships

ABSTRACT

Maritime actions against substandard operations of ships are a great deal of memorandum of understanding (MoUs) under regional basis agreements among port state control (PSC) organisations. Herein, concentrated inspection campaigns (CIC), performed by the different members of MoUs in certain periods, are a monitoring strategy to effectively control the core operational matters encountered in fire-safety systems, propulsion and auxiliary machinery system, lifesaving appliances, working conditions on board ships, etc. This paper proposes a quantified maritime safety analysis based on fuzzy failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) to evaluate CIC database of MoUs in order to achieve advance creative solutions. Demonstration studies are performed on the special database on fire-safety system deficiencies. Since the fuzzy FMEA outcomes point out the risk prioritisation numbers and relevant control options, the paper attempts to transform CIC feedback into useful information in terms of enhancing the ship PSC inspection concept (e-PSC inspection). The paper theoretically contributes to safety analysis methods in literature while demonstration of e-PSC inspections offers an insight into maritime industry in safety improvement.     

故障模式及影响分析方法在船舶主推进系统中的应用

采用故障模式及影响分析方法对船舶系统进行可靠性或安全性分析,并以燃油系统为研究对象,找到系统可能的故障模式、发生故障的原因、故障对局部及最终的影响等,以提高船舶系统的可靠性。     

浅谈集装箱班轮重大件装卸作业的海事监管

随着越来越多的集装箱班轮载运重大件货物，集装箱班轮海上运输和港口码头作业大件的风险都在不断加大，对海事部门提出了新的监管要求。文中通过对重大件作业的行政审批许可、通航安全管理、重大件配载和绑扎管理、应急管理进行梳理，总结出基本的重大件货物装卸作业监管方案，一定程度上提高海事监管效能。     

潜艇结构的失效模式及影响分析

在结构系统可靠性分析或系统安全分析中，主要是要对系统的失效模式有较深刻的理解。而FMEA（失效模式及影响分析）方法虽然简单，却很实用，能够透彻地理解系统的安全性要求，同时也为结构系统的风险分析（PRA）打下基础。本文对潜艇结构的失效模式与影响分析作了初步研究。     

故障模式与影响分析在大型高速客滚船的应用

故障模式效果和影响分析(FMEA)是应用在工业可靠性分析领域的一项成熟技术,但在船舶领域的应用还是空白。高速客滚船是一种事故多发的船舶,因此对它进行可靠性分析及综合安全评估(FSA)有重要意义。探讨了FMEA和FSA之间的关系,介绍了FMEA的概念并详尽阐述了该方法的分析过程,根据大型高速客滚船的实际情况,指出其应用在此对象的技术路线及相关注意事项。研究表明:应用FMEA技术可以有效地提高高速客滚船的可靠性和安全性。     

Port and terminal selection by deep-sea container operators

This paper deals with the importance of port choice and container terminal selection for deep-sea container carriers. The paper focuses on the research question: on what basis do deep-sea container operators select container ports (strategy) and container terminals (financial reasons) in the Hamburg–Le Havre range over others? In answering this research question, three dimensions are addressed in detail: the buying decision characteristics; port choice strategy; and terminal selection. The results show that strategic considerations at company level are important. For port choice the most important criteria from a carrier's perspective are: availability of hinterland connections; reasonable tariffs; and immediacy of consumers (large hinterland). In addition to these criteria, shipping lines attach great value to often neglected factors, such as feeder connectivity, environmental issues and the total portfolio of the port. The study reveals that port selection and terminal selection are not the same with terminal selection criteria mainly depending on: handling speed; handling costs; reliability; and hinterland connections. The analysis also brought forward that the decision making is different per container carrier, per trade and per port type, implying that a one size fits all approach is not relevant.     

共模故障分析在起落架系统中的应用研究

共模故障（COMMON MODE FAULT,CMF）广泛存在于复杂系统中,研究如何对系统中可能引发共模故障的故障状态进行识别、提出预防措施、降低共因故障发生概率,成为当今可靠性安全性领域重要的研究方向。共模故障分析（COMMON MODE FAULT ANALYSIS,CMFA）是一种用于复杂系统可靠性、安全性和风险性评价的方法,是故障模式与影响分析和故障树分析的补充,此方法可以用来检验系统各组成部分之间是否满足独立性要求,确定共模故障条件下对系统失效的概率。通过共模故障分析方法在某型民机起落架应用过程的分析研究,为今后此分析方法的应用提供参考。     

船舶电力系统故障工况仿真

船舶电力系统运行良好是船舶安全的重要保证,有必要对系统故障情况进行研究.采用计算机仿真软件MATLAB和ETAP分别对船舶电力系统进行建模及故障工况分析,获取详细的故障工况数据作为故障模式影响分析(FMEA)的基础,用于船舶电力系统的安全可靠方面的研究,有一定的现实意义.     

区域定量分析方法在危险货物集装箱堆场安全评估中的应用

介绍区域定量风险评价法的基本原理，并在某危险货物集装箱堆场安全评估中实际应用。首先对某危险货物集装箱堆场重大危险源等级进行判定，并运用CASST-QRA软件对危险品堆场事故后果进行模拟，并绘制该堆场的个人风险等值线分布图和社会风险图，最后根据判定标准确定该危险货物集装箱堆场风险为可接受。结果表明区域定量风险评价法为危险货物集装箱堆场安全评估提供评价依据，为全面了解港区风险和港区科学规划提供理论依据。     

42000吨散货船结构疲劳可靠性评估

本文从可靠性概念出发，对沪东造船厂建造的42000吨散货船甲板角隅结构疲劳强度进行安全评估。评估中考虑了疲劳数据的离散性、应力分析的误差以及波浪载荷的随机性等不确定因素，结果表明，该船甲板角隅的疲劳可靠性水平在0．98以上，即失效概率小于0．02，较好地反映了该船的实际情况。该评估方法也可用于集装箱船甲板大开口疲劳安全评估。选择合适的可靠性水平，保证角隅恰当的疲劳强度，避免角隅疲劳裂纹的产生，对集装箱船结构安全具有实际意义。     

A risk model for the operation of container vessels

Commercial shipping of containerized goods involves certain risks for human safety and environment. In order to actively manage these risks, they must be identified, analyzed, modeled, and quantified. This requires a systematical analysis of design and operation of container vessels. Within the EU-funded research project SAFEDOR, a Formal Safety Assessment has been applied to establish the current safety level of generic container ships and to identify potential cost-effective risk control options. This paper describes a structured approach to develop the underlying high-level risk model. It is structured as risk contribution tree consisting of a series of fault trees and event trees for the major accident categories. Statistical analysis of casualty data is used to estimate the probability of occurrence. Finally, the summation overall individual risk contributions yields the current risk pro file for the operation of container vessels is presented as FN-curve.     

FMEA在船舶系统风险评估中的应用

在船舶系统风险评估中,FMEA(故障模式与影响分析)技术是一种较为有效和常用的风险分析方法,已被国内外的船舶规范所采用。从风险评估的角度,着重介绍FMEA技术、其扩展FMECA(故障模式、影响及危害度分析)技术,及其在船舶系统中的应用。     

舰船建造故障模式影响分析技术研究

现阶段,舰船行业由于过程控制问题造成的工程故障已经越来越多地暴露出来。舰船建造故障模式影响分析(FMEA)就是将FMEA理念与舰船建造特点相结合,形成一种解决过程缺陷的有效的可靠性分析方法。本文对建造FMEA进行了系统的研究,提出了完整的方法和程序。     

基于隐患分析的海洋钻修机井架及底座安全评估

针对海洋钻修机井架及底座的安全评估方法的局限性,采用安全检查表法(SCL)、故障类型及影响分析法(FMEA),以及事故树分析法(FTA)从设备隐患的角度出发对井架进行全面的安全评价,结果表明:SCL可有效识别井架及底座存在的隐患,隐患发生在二层台及井架主体部位居多,安装不合理为最主要的隐患形式;FMEA方法可识别出井架及底座常见故障类型、原因,以及影响;采用FTA方法分析梳理出井架及底座常见事故产生的原因。     

Reliable container line supply chains

Container line supply chains, based on a near-frictionless international transport belief, have contributed to economic prosperity and also rendered themselves uniquely vulnerable to various risks. 9/11 terrorists attacks, the lock-out of American West Ports and the global breakout of SARS disease have gradually shown that a) the safety and reliability in the chains are facing an unprecedented challenge and b) traditional engineeringbased risk assessment methods are inadequate to deal with the threats from variational environments, especially in the era of terrorism rampancy. The purpose of this paper is, therefore, to develop a conceptual risk assessment model for container line supply chains based on a modified Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) methodology that takes risks from vulnerability rather than only hazards into account. It gives particular emphasis on the analysis of the threats with a high level of uncertainty from both safety and economic viewpoints. The advantages of the vulnerability-based risk analysis approach to the hazard-based one are clarified and both engineering-based and managerial risk assessments are also discussed.     

FMEA在船舶主机润滑系统中的应用

应用故障模式及影响分析方法(FMEA)对船舶主机润滑系统出现故障的原因和模式进行研究和分析,计算出故障的风险度并进行分级,根据结果提出提高其可靠性的措施。本文研究为轮机人员有效地对船舶主机润滑系统进行维护和管理提供帮助。