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A paper for the 'Management of Risks in Engineering' seminar on 'Risks, Vulnerabilities and Exposures in Transport (air, space, sea and land)' organised by the Association Internationale pour I 'Etude de I 'Economie de I' Assurance, Munich, October 21-22, 2002.     

Evaluating determinants of attractiveness and their cause-effect relationships for container ports in Taiwan: users’ perspectives

The attractiveness of ports is usually a pre-requisite and necessary condition for ports to achieve competitiveness, as well as the springboard to explore the competitive advantages of ports. To determine whether a port is competitive, it is necessary to explore whether it boasts certain factors that make the port attractive to users. The main purpose of this article is to apply the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method and the Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) technique to evaluate key determinants of attractiveness and their cause/effect relationships for container ports in Taiwan. The empirical results showed that: (1) Top six determinates of attractiveness for container ports are ‘ample cargo sources,’ ‘favorable port charges,’ ‘dense ship network and routes,’ ‘low transshipment costs,’ ‘efficient wharf operations,’ and ‘adequate wharfs and back-line land,’ respectively. (2) Among the above six determinants of attractiveness, ‘ample cargo sources’ is the cause determinant. Three determinants of port attractiveness, ‘favorable port charges,’ ‘dense ship network and routes,’ ‘low transshipment costs,’ which are the effect determinants. They are affected by the determinants of attractiveness of ‘ample cargo sources’. In addition, this study discusses the above findings and expects to provide the study results to Taiwan’s port authorities for reference.     

Themes and tools of maritime transport research during 2000-2014

This study examines how maritime transport has been researched through a comprehensive review of papers published in 19 transportation journals over the period 2000–2014. Systematic investigation shows that Maritime Policy & Management plays a prominent role in publishing maritime transport research. At the same time, ‘shipping’ is a dominant research area, with ‘port management, service, performance, efficiency and competitiveness’; ‘shipping market, industry, freight rate and economic impact’; and ‘terminal studies’ as the most popular topics. Nevertheless, few efforts have investigated ‘shipping finance’; ‘shipping service’; or ‘port risk and security.’ Since 2000, the use of quantitative analysis techniques has steadily increased in maritime transport to help participants make decisions scientifically. We here present the major data analysis techniques and highlight some limitations regarding their application. Thus, we provide a better understanding of how maritime transport research has been undertaken in a quantitative manner.     

Key criteria influencing the choice of Arctic shipping: a fuzzy analytic hierarchy process model

As Arctic sea ice shrinks due to global warming, the Northern Sea Route (NSR) and the Northwest Passage (NWP) offer a substantial reduction in shipping distance between Asia and the European and North American continents, respectively, when compared to conventional routes through the Suez and Panama Canals. However, Arctic shipping routes have many problems associated with their use. The main objective of this paper is to identify the key criteria that influence the decisions of shipping operators with respect to using Arctic shipping routes. A multi-criteria decision-making methodology, the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process, is applied to rank four potential categories of criteria (‘economic’, ‘technical’, ‘political’ and ‘safety’ factors) and their sub-criteria.

The results of the analysis suggest that, on aggregate, ‘economic’ is the most important category of influential factors, followed by ‘safety’, ‘technical’ and ‘political’ factors. The paper concludes, however, that the most influential specific sub-criteria relate to risks that lie mainly within the ‘safety’ and ‘political’ domains and that, especially in combination, these overwhelm the importance which is attached to ‘economic’ factors such as reduced fuel use. Finally, the implications of these findings for the future development of Arctic shipping are addressed at a strategic level.     

船舶非线性横摇运动数值模拟研究

非线性大角横摇运动是危害船舶安全的重要因素,也是船舶水动力学关注的热点及难点问题。文章采用CFD方法,对某型驱逐舰船模在不同波长规则波中横浪航行时的横摇运动进行了数值模拟。通过与水池实验比对,数值仿真得到的稳定横摇幅值与实验值的误差在10%左右。同时,数值模拟证实了非线性横摇的两种典型特征—“多值”及“跳跃”现象。数值模拟结果表明,CFD方法可作为研究船舶非线性横摇运动的有效手段。     

Scientists and Crew

This study reports on scientist/crew relations aboard research vessels at sea. It is a case study in a case study in a long-range project dealing with the relations of natural scientists in the U.S.A. to various segments of the lay population. An earlier paper dealt with the interaction of scientists and Government policy makers during the science-advisory process [1]. In that study we found that the frustration was reciprocal; scientists and policy makers were equally vocal on what was wrong with ‘ the other groups’. The present research, by comparison, focuses on scientists and members of ‘the working class’. Here we find the frustration rather one-sided, reflecting the differences in status and power of the two groups. On a research vessel, science and scientists control the lives and careers of the mariners. In the science-advising committee, members of both government and science meet as social equals.

In this paper elements of conflict between scientists and crew on a research vessel are described. It is suggested that conflict between these two groups is the inevitable result of extending the ‘intellectual’/‘worker’ class conflict of our society to a closed space at sea. The controlling mechanism of the conflict may be called ‘subcultural privacy’, a mechanism worked out by mariners to cope with the disrupting effects of a constant stream of strangers into their sea-going home. The mechanism takes the form of institutionalized ‘bitching’ and systematic physical separation of scientists and crew during critical periods of the day. It is suggested that attempts to create greater crew/scientist harmony by forcing by greater interaction (and thus a breakdown of subcultural privacy) will be counter productive.     

Common patterns in aggregated accident analysis charts from human fatigue-related groundings and collisions at sea

Research has shown that there are potentially disastrous outcomes of human fatigue at sea. The conditions in which the seafarers have to operate are becoming more and more demanding. The study in this article attempts to aggregate accident charts derived from in-depth studies of human fatigue-related accidents to determine common patterns of interlinked fatigue factors. The accidents are analyzed by means of the Cognitive Reliability and Error Analysis Method (CREAM), which in the article has been modified for maritime accidents. The main fatigue factors identified are ‘shift work’, ‘irregular working hours’, ‘inadequate task allocation’, and ‘excessive demands’. The study reveals several differences between ship collision and grounding accidents and their corresponding fatigue factors. Human fatigue-related collision accidents are characterized by wrong/badly timed decisions, misconceptions, and poor communication between the vessels. Right before the collision the crew is often panicking and mistakes are easily made. In human fatigue-related groundings, the conditions are often monotonous and the navigating officer has either overlooked the upcoming seabed or simply fallen asleep. Safety climate issues are also identified as important contributors to human fatigue.     

Towards an ‘inland terminal centred’ value proposition

The two main value propositions in international container transport are ‘port-to-port’ services and ‘door-to-door’ services. In port-to-port services, buyers ‘just’ purchase maritime transport from a shipping line. Door-to-door services comprise the total transport chain and include land-based transport. Carriers as well as forwarders offer these door-to-door services. In this paper we provide a qualitative assessment of an emerging third value proposition that is centred around inland terminals (ILTs). Such a value proposition consists of transport up to the ILT, and may have advantages over port-to-port services, such as better leverage of scale economies, better repositioning of empty containers and better alignment with the business model of forwarders. This paper conceptually and empirically explores such a value proposition.     

Selective replacement of national by non-national seafarers in OECD countries and the employment function in the maritime sector

Commonly, in the shipping industry of the developed Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries, national seafarers are progressively being replaced by non-national ones. The present paper aims to provide a model for this tendency. Our analysis is based on the assumption that when shipowners are called to make decisions concerning crew characteristics (such as crew composition and employment levels), they address themselves to two distinct seafarer markets: the domestic (seafarers from OECD countries, henceforth to be referred to as ‘national’) and the non-national (seafarers from other countries). Whilst workers of the first market are better examples in the field of ‘on-the-job-performance’ (in terms of efficiency and loyalty) than workers of the second, shipowners set their domestic employment rule with the view to maximize their profits facing wages and ‘on-the-job-performance’ from national and non-national seafarers alike. Thus, national seafarers are chiefly recruited as officers and the employment level of non-national seafarers are residual, formed thereafter. Our findings point out that the employment rule concerning nationals is negatively affected by the former's wages, and positively by the wage increases of non-national seafarers and by eventual increases of the differential between the ‘on the job performance’ of nationals and that of non-national seafarers of corresponding specialisation.     

基于LabVIEW的“海院1号”波浪发电平台浮筒取能效率数据采集系统设计

浮筒取能效率测试是波浪发电平台研究的重要组成部分。传统的测试系统不但测量精度低,而且自动化程度低、操作复杂。为此,该文基于“海院1号”波浪发电平台,采用虚拟仪器LabVIEW软件开发了浮筒取能效率数据采集系统。文中介绍了“海院1号”波浪发电平台及其浮筒,进行了测试系统的设计,实现了浮筒取能效率测试的数据采集、数据管理、曲线拟合及绘制、生成报表、信号分析以及数据处理等工程。对实际运行效果进行分析,结果表明该系统具有精度高、运行稳定可靠、自动化程度高、人机界面友好以及操作简单等特点,具有重要的工程实践意义。     

Maritime commercial malpractices and piracy under international law

The term ‘Piracy’ tends to be used in a loose, popular sense to refer to various acts of violence or lawlessness at sea which are not, strictly speaking, acts of piracy in law. In this article, the author examines the concept of piracy under international law and related notions such as hijacking and mutiny. In this context, he shows that the ‘malpractices’ of robber bands in such places as the inshore waters of Nigeria and The Philippines are not acts of piracy jure gentium.     

The slippery slope of lot consolidation in the Santa Monica Mountains: A program assessment

Abstract

The authors present an assessment of the Coastal Conservancy's efforts to consolidate small, substandard lots in the Santa Monica Mountains. Emphasis is placed on the ‘ ‘lessons learned’ ‘ by the Conservancy in its project experience as those lessons may be applicable to related efforts elsewhere. Finally, alternative means of lot consolidation are suggested. This assessment should be of relevance to other programs nationwide to address the problem of antiquated subdivisions.     

‘Tool port’ to ‘landlord port’: a game theory approach to analyse gains from governance model transformation

This study investigates potential port users’ surplus and terminal operators’ profits due to transforming port governance from the ‘tool port’ model to the ‘landlord port’ model. Although the landlord port model is one of the most adopted and successful port governance models, many ports still operate under other models. Chittagong Port, the largest port in Bangladesh, currently operates under the tool port model, while the country’s second-largest port, Mongla Port, operates under the service port model. Chittagong Port is currently facing many challenges, including capacity expansion and renovation of port facilities. Therefore, we form four hypothetical situations for port governance model transformation, assuming that Chittagong Port will transform to the landlord port model but that Mongla Port will run under the existing governance model. Estimating a Bertrand game model, we present a cost-benefit analysis for port users and terminal operators (or port authorities) in hypothetical game situations. The results reveal that privatising one of the container terminals under a landlord setting is the most profitable scenario for Chittagong Port Authority, but privatising all terminals of Chittagong Port yields the highest users’ surplus. However, privatising two of the terminals while they cooperate yields the lowest users’ surplus.     

The maximum shipping capacity of the Suez Canal

This paper considers the determination of the maximum shipping capacity of the Suez canal. Initially, some assumptions are made in order to calculate the ‘theoretical’ maximum capacity in terms of ‘standard ships’. This last term defines ships which transit the Canal at a given speed and at a given time interval from the vessel ahead and astern.

Data has been collected from the Canal Zone, the analysis of which provides the necessary information regarding speeds of vessels at different sections of the Canal, time gaps between different classes of ship at different nodes of the Canal, and relationships between time widths of convoys and numbers of ships in those convoys at different points of the Canal.

This data has then been used to calculate the maximum capacity of the Canal in terms of ‘real ships’. For that purpose four schemes have been devised, each taking a different mix of categories of ships. A sensitivity analysis has been undertaken in order to investigate the effect of each class of ship on the real maximum shipping capacity of the Canal. The last two schemes take into consideration the effect of the future introduction of supertankers.     

科技成果转化过程中的风险评估及其处理

分析了科技成果转化过程中的风险，建立了成果转化风险的评估方法，提出了合理规避风险的途径，有利于正确认识、超前化解成果转化中的风险，促进科技成果的转化。     

Can we really measure the impact of port governance reform?

Approaches by governments to reforming the way in which ports are governed are critical to how ports operate and fulfil their roles, and much research is devoted to investigating the impact of such reform. Yet, although the challenges of such research are noted, little attention is devoted to questioning whether measuring such impact is actually possible. We argue consideration of this question is fundamentally important for policy makers and researchers. Specifically, if uncertainty exists regarding whether we have measured the impact of the reform, how can we research its effect or justify its introduction? Conversely, a more conscious consideration of whether we can really measure the impact of port governance reform arguably means a more effective contextualization and rationalization of both policy and research. In this polemical paper, we critically consider three salient areas in relation to whether we can really measure the impact of port governance reform: ‘key terms and their ambiguity’, ‘aspects of time and geography’ and ‘issues of methods and context’. We summarize the key issues and offer suggestions for policy makers and researchers to approach them in an aim to both help measure the impact of port governance reform and also aid future policy development.     

Geography and the cruise ship port selection process

The cruise ship industry is currently undergoing a period of rapid expansion. New cruise capacity threatens to produce overtonnaging, with future berths exceeding demand. Despite this development, cruise operators are confident that a growing North American market will be able to satisfy the equilibrium condition sought by vessel operators. This research explores where the new tonnage might be deployed and its eventual impact on the cruise industry. Geographic concepts are utilized to test and support the premise that geography contributes positively to the cruise port selection process. Itineraries, influenced by ‘site’ and ‘situation,’ are presently still the most important factor affecting cruise port selection.     

Small ports in Northern Ireland: A method of study

This paper discusses the strategies which might be adopted by port authorities, given that modern port technologies have considerably limited the scope for competition. It therefore analyses the several forms of competition relevant to ports, any or all of which may apply in any given instance.

It describes the 'minimalist strategy, which consists of recognizing that public sector bodies have many faults, may make many mistakes and that well-intentioned attempts to rectify faults in the private sector may make matters worse. Second, it describes the ‘pragmatic’ strategy, which involves establishing committees to examine problems and to recommend actions, if they can reach a consensus. Third, it describes the ‘public sector’ strategy, which involves the port authority taking over all port functions. Finally, it describes the ‘competitive’ strategy, which involves a careful reproduction of the circumstances of competition, even though there may be room for only one efficiently-sized operator at a time. Franchising, or short-term leasing on any of a variety of competitive bases, so as to produce serial competition is described. Each of these strategies is presented as having its own advantages and disadvantages, and each may be suitable to particular circumstances.     

Shipper's councils: role and responsibility—a western view

This paper first presents arguments for having public sector port authorities. They can deal, flexibly and permanently, with property rights within their own areas. They can plan and regulate port areas comprehensively. They can provide ‘public goods’. They can deal, in various ways, with externalities. They can promote efficiency, whether their own (if they operate as a comprehensive port) or that of the private sector (if they are largely landlords). For example, if their policy is to rely on the private sector to produce efficiency through competition then they can see to it that there actually is competition and not any kind of cartel or monopoly. Examples are cited where this last function has not been performed. The exception for single-user ports is noted.

Against them are the general disadvantages of public authorities (or bureaucracies)—though examples are cited where port authorities had very small staffs. The common instances of ‘market failure’ may thus be contrasted with those of ‘government failure’. Finally, a pragmatic approach is advocated, tailored to the needs and resources of the country in question. The increasing effect of the economies of scale in port technology, and its limitation on competition, is, however, noted and to be discussed in the next paper.     

A qualitative analysis of reintroducing cabotage onto New Zealand's coasts

This paper provides a qualitative analysis of the proposal to ‘reintroduce cabotage’ onto New Zealand's coasts. New Zealand's coastal shipping trade was opened up to international competition in 1995. The analysis is principally based on a stakeholder analysis of the 83 submissions received by the Shipping Industry Review team, as part of the Government's study to identify ways to increase participation in New Zealand's shipping industry. The stakeholders included New Zealand and international shipping companies, unions, industry associations, freight service providers, manufacturers and producers. The main conclusion drawn from the stakeholder analysis was that to reintroduce cabotage onto New Zealand's coasts would appear to have an overall net negative impact on the New Zealand economy at this stage. However, the Shipping Industry Review team ‘was divided on the implementation of cabotage’, and a force-field analysis was undertaken subsequently based on the author's stakeholder impact analysis and the Review team's list of pros and cons of reintroducing cabotage. This force-field analysis also supported the author's earlier conclusion. However, the almost ‘complete absence of statistics’ relating to the commercial activities of the shipping industry in New Zealand places severe limits on the analysis.