船舶撞击力作用下高桩码头的安全评估

针对高桩码头水平承载力,应用极限概率理论分析了荷载效应的统计参数;根据构件破坏准则,确定了码头破坏模式和功能函数;依托某码头实例,建立响应模型,计算其失效概率及可靠指标。分析的结果认为,船舶撞击能和船舶撞击力符合极值I型分布;高桩码头的主要破坏为桩基础的正截面受弯破坏和水平位移过大;结合某码头工程实例,利用ANSYS有限元分析软件建立结构响应模型和PDS模块,采用蒙特卡罗的方法进行可靠性分析,共进行了10万次抽样,抽样的结果显示,码头受船撞作用失效的概率为2.073 05×10-3,可靠指标为3.76,安全结构等级为2级。     

Reliability analysis of ovalized deep-water pipelines with corrosion defects

The accurate assessment of the remaining strength of corroded pipes is a subject that has been increasingly investigated over the past decades. This is because of the risk of significant social, economic, and environmental effects that may be caused by an accident. The finite element method has been successfully used to predict the collapse pressure considering external load. It was also used in this study. The literature primarily focused on the corroded pipes subjected to internal pressure. In this study, the out-of-roundness (ovalization) of the pipe was considered to evaluate the collapse pressure. Uncertainties should be incorporated into a computational model to assess the reliability of corroded pipes. Three methods for evaluation of the probability of failure were used: the first-order reliability method (FORM), traditional Monte Carlo (MC), and a new proposed methodology that combines MC results with the kernel density estimation method (MCkde). The probability of failure of ovalized corroded pipes subject to external pressure was computed. The results exhibited a good agreement between FORM and MCkde method. The statistical importance of each random variable was observed and the results were compared with those from intact ovalized pipes. The computation cost of the MC method with numerical simulation limits its use to the application under study. Solutions using the FORM and MCkde methods exhibited good agreement with those of the full MC method. However, the computational effort of the latter was independent of the stochastic dimension, and it was a derivative-free method. As expected, in general, the solutions based on empirical methods were conservative.     

结构系统疲劳可靠性分析的一阶和二阶混合方法

本文提出了复杂结构系统疲劳可靠性分析的一阶和二阶混合方法。引进Ｈｏｈｅｎｂｉｃｈｌｅｒ等提出的并联系统可靠性分析的二阶渐近式计算失效途径的疲劳失效概率;利用并联系统等效线性安全余量的概念,形成由失效途径的等效失效单元组成的串联系统;并最终计算整个系统的疲劳失效概率。计算结果表明,这一方法能有效地提高结构系统疲劳失效概率的计算精度。     

基于Kriging模型的船舶典型双层底板架强度和稳定性全局敏度分析

基于Kriging近似技术分别构造具有5根、7根龙骨的双层底板架结构强度和稳定性计算代理模型,利用Sobol＇进行双层底板架结构各设计参数对板架强度和稳定性响应指标的全局敏度分析.分析结果表明：对于强度响应,板架尺度及布置参数、构件尺寸参数均对其存在较大的影响;而对于稳定性响应,板架尺度及布置参数对其敏感程度较高,构件尺寸参数对其影响较为有限.     

RSM-FORM 的改进与环肋圆柱壳结构的可靠性计算(英文)

文章在用有限元法对结构进行强度计算和分析的基础上,应用RSM确定了环肋圆柱壳结构强度失效的功能函数;在对相关可靠度理论进行研究的基础上,将RSM与FORM相结合,对FORM进行了改进,解决了当量正态化和参数独立化问题,保留了功能函数的二次项,使计算精度满足实际工程的需要;最后用RSM-FORM对环肋圆柱壳结构强度的可靠性进行了计算分析,计算结果表明,RSM-FORM具有较好的计算精度。     

Efficient optimization design method of jacket structures for offshore wind turbines

With the gradual implementation of offshore wind energy production, the future tendency is to expand into the deeper water. The jacket foundations will take the place of the present monopile foundations when the water depth increases. The foundations account for the majority of the construction cost for offshore wind farms, and the structural optimization of jackets will bring lucrative economic benefits. Structural optimization is a complex iterative process that requires huge computing costs. Therefore, this paper proposes a structural optimization method based on surrogate models to solve this problem effectively and swiftly obtain optimized design schemes of lightweight jackets for offshore wind turbines. The structural responses of jacket wind turbine systems under the equivalent static extreme loads with a recurrence period of 50 years are mainly considered in structural optimization design, and the key optimization variables of jackets are determined by parameter sensitivity analysis. The finite element models of jackets are transformed into surrogate models, and the genetic algorithm is employed to optimize the surrogate models directly. The optimized jackets are additionally verified through coupled dynamic analysis, besides, buckling strength and fatigue life are also checked. And local refined optimizations are carried out for the failure members. According to the optimized design schemes of lightweight jackets for 30 m, 50 m and 70 m water depths, it is demonstrated that the structural optimization design method is adequate and efficient for jackets of wind turbines. Parameter sensitivity analysis can cut the number of optimization variables in half to improve the optimization efficiency. Furthermore, the application of surrogate models can significantly speed up the optimization process by saving about 98.61% of the original time consumed. The optimization design method of the jackets for offshore wind turbines proposed in this paper is suitable for practical engineering, with high precision and efficiency.     

随机导管架平台结构动力可靠性及灵敏度分析

基于Kriging模型和一次二阶矩方法对具有随机参数的导管架平台结构动力可靠度进行了分析.首先根据首次超越破坏准则建立了随机结构动力可靠度的隐式功能函数表达形式.然后通过有限元分析得到用于隐式功能函数近似的Kriging模型,进而求得可靠度指标.最后根据可靠度对随机参数均值和标准差的灵敏度公式,分析了导管架平台可靠度对各随机变量的敏感性,并得出了一些有益于工程设计、参数优化和精度控制的结论.     

基于Kriging模型的深潜器多球交接耐压壳结构优化

基于Kriging模型对深潜多球交接耐压壳进行了结构优化研究.通过试验设计选取样本点,采用非线性有限元方法计算样本的极限强度,建立了Kriging模型,针对不同工作深度的耐压壳进行结构优化.研究结果表明,Kriging模型具有较高的精度,并且克服了优化算法与非线性有限元模型直接结合所带来的计算量巨大且难以得到正确的梯度信息的困难,是求解深潜多球交接耐压壳结构优化问题的有效途径.     

改进随机森林-蒙特卡罗法在A型液舱支座结构可靠性分析中的应用

[目的]随着液化天然气(LNG)船舶结构研究和设计深度的提高,需要有能够快速和准确地评估不确定性因素的可靠性分析方法。为此,提出基于改进随机森林-蒙特卡罗(RF-MC)法来解决A型独立液舱支座结构失效概率的计算问题。[方法]首先,根据不确定性因素的概率分布,使用MC法生成样本集;然后,以局部离群因子为准则,筛选出失效面附近的样本点,再对筛选出的样本点进行有限元计算后添加至训练集,通过重复训练随机森林近似模型,直至满足精度要求;最后,使用近似模型判别样本点是否失效,结合MC法计算结构的失效概率。[结果]综合考虑算法的准确率、复杂度和效率并结合算例1和2,可以发现在分析可靠性问题时改进RF-MC法比MC和BP-MC等方法具有更大优势。算例3的应用结果表明了改进RFMC法在A型独立液舱支座结构可靠性分析中的适用性。[结论]研究结果可为LNG船舶的优化设计提供可行的技术方案。     

半潜式生产平台立柱与上部模块连接结构设计优化及可靠性分析

半潜式生产平台是一种适用深海油气资源开发的主流装备,相比半潜式钻井平台,其在结构强度和疲劳分析方面有更高的要求。文章在规范设计及校核的基础上,采用三维结构有限元数值分析法,对半潜式生产平台关键结构优化设计和可靠性分析进行研究,以求平台关键结构区域应力状态更合理优化;基于蒙特卡洛法,针对海洋工程环境条件的复杂性和不确定性,引入载荷随机概率变化设定,进一步对关键结构进行可靠性分析及优化,以关注结构强度的可靠性。     

Calibration of safety factors for offshore wind turbine support structures using fully coupled simulations

The offshore wind industry experienced a boost during the last decade in terms of size of wind farms and rated capacity of the wind turbines: towers are getting taller and blades are getting longer, constantly facing new and complex challenges. Because of the relative immaturity of the wind industry, and the fact that the offshore design standards stemmed from the oil and gas industry, it is generally acknowledged that the reliability levels achieved, although not very well understood, might result in partial safety factors not optimal for OWT. This paper addresses this situation by studying the reliability levels delivered by the current standards and assessing the validity of the safety factors through a reliability-based code calibration. The combination of the low probability of failure imposed on the design of OWTs and the computational cost of the aero-elastic time-domain simulations brings out the need to develop new approaches for reliability analyses. In this paper, the reliability analysis is performed using a Kriging surrogate model to approximate the load-effect from the aero-elastic simulations converting expensive-to-evaluate limit state functions to explicit functions. Subsequently, a calibration of the safety factors is carried out using the probabilistic models from literature. The approach is applied to an industry-reference turbine and support structure. The results showed very low probabilities of failure for the most severe design cases and confirm that the safety factors from the IEC are mostly adequate.     

满足稳定性的船舶板架结构的可靠性分析

以I型截面为例，考虑屈服应力和外载荷为随机变量，并满足稳定性条件下，对板架结构进行可靠性分析。采用随机有限元法求解非线性安全余量可靠性指标及失效模式间的相关关数，为满足稳定性的板架结构的可靠性分析提供一个合理方法。最后，通过板架结构的可靠性算例，说明分析的有效性。     

Predictive analyses of the integrity of corroded pipelines based on concepts of structural reliability and Bayesian inference

In this paper, structural reliability concepts are used in conjunction with limit state functions proposed in the Recommended Practice DNV-RP-F101 (2010) to evaluate the probability of failure of corroded pipelines during their lifetimes. The model takes into account the natural spread of material properties, geometric and operational parameters, and the uncertainties associated with the sizing of eventual corrosion defects. Bayesian reliability concepts are used to estimate the evolution of a pre-defined distribution of defects obtained, for instance, from an inspection campaign. By comparing the predicted probability of failure with the reliability acceptance criteria, the operator can schedule defect repairs and establish inspection intervals with more confidence. This proposed methodology can provide the basis to develop a risk based maintenance strategy of pipeline systems.     

Comparative reliability analysis of ships under vector-load processes

This paper deals with reliability analysis of ships under vector-load processes. Failure is expressed by multiple response variables. Different methods can be used to assess failure probability, primary among them are the time-independent and out-crossing (up-crossing) rate methods. This paper describes the procedure for performing reliability analysis of ships under vector-load processes by the out-crossing rate method. Alternative methods based on piecewise linear or continuous modeling of failure surface are explored for calculating the out-crossing rate and compared. The methods are exemplified by calculating the conditional probability of a damaged double hull oil tanker under combined vertical and horizontal bending moments.     

结构可靠度分析中随机变量间相关系数的特性

在结构可靠度分析中,经常要把随机变量通过当量正态化变换为标准正态随机变量.随机变量的变换过程,包括线性函数变换和非线性函数变换.为了研究随机变量间相关系数的变化规律,利用概率论的基本思想分析得出,经过线性变换后变量之间相关系数保持绝对值不变,非线性变换后保持随机变量之间相关系数近似不变.因此在结构可靠度分析中,变量之间相关系数近似保持相等,其误差随变换的非线性程度增高而增大.     

某型舰船危险部位结构可靠性分析

在响应面随机有限元法和结构可靠性理论的基础上,利用有限元软件 Ansys建立某型舰船开口结构的梁板模型,采用改进的一次二阶矩法与分枝限界法、概率网络评估技术分析了开口结构在组合载荷作用下的可靠性。以结构的最危险点应力为输出变量,通过敏度分析忽略最大应力不敏感的变量拟和响应面方程。利用随机有限元和 CAE软件结合开展结构系统的可靠性研究,避免了大型结构寻找失效模式的困难,使可靠性分析的效率得到极大提高。     

LNG船液舱围护系统安装平台基于极限承载力的可靠度分析

在充分考虑构件的初始缺陷以及几何与材料非线性可能对结构整体稳定性造成影响的基础上,针对174 000 m3 LNG船液舱围护系统安装平台,选取典型的双排脚手架结构作为研究对象,首先通过对整体结构的失效模式追踪,确定结构体系的极限承载力;然后在中心复合抽样试验设计的基础上,将响应面法与非线性有限元法结合起来,对安装平台进行基于极限承载力的可靠性评估。结果表明,用此法来求解结构体系基于极限承载力的可靠度问题不但可行,而且能大幅提高计算的效率。     

代理模型在水下航行体空泡压力预示的应用研究

文章基于径向基神经网络(Radial Basis Function,RBF)和Kriging代理模型方法分别对水下垂直发射航行体表面附着空泡闭合区压力预示模型进行了研究,首先分析了影响空泡闭合区压力变化的物理因素,通过代理模型方法建立了影响因素与空泡闭合区压力最大值和压力空间分布波形之间的数学模型,形成了空泡闭合区压力分布预示方法,而后针对典型工况开展预示结果与试验数据比对,表明RBF方法和Kriging方法均能较为准确地获取空泡闭合区压力特征,在有限子样条件下Kriging代理模型对空泡闭合区压力峰值预示精度更高。     

基于有限元分析的潜艇耐压液舱结构系统可靠性计算

潜艇耐压液舱结构复杂，往往需进行有限元分析以获得结构在极限载荷作用下的应力。此时，由于失效函数缺乏显式表达，故应用一般的可靠性计算方法将遇到困难。作者采用人工神经网络代替传统的多项式函数拟合失效面，并结合方向抽样技术，提出了基于有限元的结构系统可靠性计算的新算法。由于该方法引入了结构有限元分析，且无需进行失效模式间相关性的近似分析，因而计算精度好，适用范围广泛。潜艇耐压液舱结构系统可靠性分析的算例表明，该法有效地解决了复杂工程结构的系统可靠度计算问题。     

基于序贯Kriging模型的潜器型线优化设计

潜器型线优化设计是一个多目标优化问题,在型线设计过程中,阻力性能与包络体积的要求是相互冲突的。为了解决计算流体力学软件如Fluent在进行潜器的外形优化设计时效率低下问题,采用Kriging模型代替仿真模型进行潜器外形设计的策略,其基本思想是：选取设计变量和样本点,利用ICEM软件建立参数化的水动力分析模型,用Fluent软件计算得到样本点的阻力响应值,建立反映设计变量与响应之间关系的Kriging模型,将阻力和体积作为潜器外形优化的两个目标,利用多目标遗传算法求出Pareto最优解。由于采样策略对Kriging模型精度影响很大,本文提出了一种新的序贯采样方法命名为加权累积误差方法,来选取样本点以提高Kriging模型精度。结果表明提出的序贯Kriging建模技术能极大提高潜器型线优化设计效率,同时保证设计精度。