交通基础设施对西部社会经济发展的影响评价

《交通基础设施对西部社会经济发展的影响评价》项目在借鉴国内外研究成果和广泛资料调研的基础上,结合专家群组咨询、理论分析、数理统计与检验等手段,构建了交通科技项目评价指标体系,从微观和宏观层面分析了"十五"西部交通建设科技项目的实施效果,完成了交通基础设施对西部社会经济发展的综合影响评价。本篇对项目的主要研究成果和创新点进行了介绍,提出了相应的建议,为我国西部地区交通基础设施建设提供参考依据。     

基于多层次体系的交通科技项目模糊综合评价

交通科技项目具有明显的多因素性和不确定性,导致对其进行的评价也具有多目标性和模糊性。文章根据交通科技项目的特点提出基于多层次体系的模糊综合评价方法,介绍以多层次模糊综合评价模型为框架评价交通科技项目的步骤,为西部交通科技项目对社会经济的影响评价提供依据。     

“一国两制”下的交通项目国民经济评价方法

香港与内地实行两种不同的制度、两套独立的经济与财政运行体系，由于经济发展水平及效益评价体系不同，内地原有交通项目评价方法体系主要适用于内地项目，如何根据“一国两制”的具体情况，对两地合建的交通基础设施项目进行较科学合理的国民经济评价，既是跨境交通建设项目的需要，也是完善评价方法体系的需要，对今后跨国（地区）交通项目的国民经济效益评价具有重要的借鉴作用和指导意义。本文拟以深港西部通道（深圳湾公路大桥）项目为例,对跨境交通项目的评价方法进行一些探讨。一、 基本情况与背景深圳与香港之间目前共有３个公路过…     

八桂大地遍开科技之花西部项目助力广西交通建设——西部大开发10周年广西交通科技工作纪实

为了贯彻落实国家实施西部大开发战略,加快促进西部地区交通基础设施建设,原交通部于2001年启动了“西部交通建设科技项目计划”（以下简称“西部项目”）,目的在于凝聚社会科技资源,攻克长期困扰西部地区交通建设的技术难题,打破制约西部交通发展的技术瓶颈,促进西部交通建设的又好又快发展。     

对西部大开发中公路运输作用的探讨

<正>交通作为社会经济开发的先导,已为我国改革开放后的实践又一次所证实,交通发达是社会经济发展的必要条件。党中央、国务院作出西部大开发的战略决策,并把加快交通等基础设施建设作为开发先行,充分说明了交通基础设施在西部大开发中的基础性地位。朱镕基总理在2000年《政府工作报告》中针对实施西     

我国西部交通运输开发建设对策

西部大开发的首要问题是加强地区交通运输基础设施建设,目前西部交通运输存在如基础设施布局、交通技术结构、交通区域结构等方面的问题。文章通过对现状、资金、环境、人才因素的考虑,提出了以“强化技术改造,提高运输能力,拓展内外通,适应发展需要”为基本思路的一系列西部交通开发建设对策。     

城市绿色出行内涵和评价指标体系框架研究

绿色出行发展的根本目的是为了实现城市交通可持续发展,实现出行"安全、畅通、高效、舒适、环保、节能",从而实现社会、经济、交通和环境的协调发展。本文通过对绿色出行的概念、内涵、特征和实现途径等相关理论进行解读,确定绿色出行系统的主要构成;采用计划行为理论、交通需求管理理论等多视角,对影响和制约城市绿色出行发展的关键因素进行分析和识别,并研究提出围绕保障能力、基础设施、运输装备、运营服务等方面的绿色出行评价指标体系框架。     

湖北交通运输发展阶段与水平研究

湖北是第一批交通强国建设试点省,需要打造先行先试典型样板。在对湖北省交通发展历史进行总结的基础上,建立交通发展阶段与水平评价的“双评价”的方法,分别采用经济适应性评价和区域对比评价,运用层析分析法,从传统基础设施评价和高质量发展评价两个方面,分析预测湖北省现状和未来交通发展阶段与水平,给出了未来各时期交通发展重点,为湖北省未来交通发展策略制定提供参考。     

西部ITS的建设与发展探讨

智能交通系统(ITS)是二十一世纪现代交通发展的基础设施之一,是本世纪最有影响的巨大产业,是各国交通领域研究发展的重点项目.我国西部地区的ITS如何建设与发展,关系到全国智能交通发展的大局.要发展全国范围的ITS就必须重视西部地区ITS的建设与发展.     

区域交通路网规模评价指标的探讨

区域非均衡发展是世界各国经济和社会发展过程中面临的共同问题，也存在于交通运输业。衡量交通运输发展水平包括交通基础设施的规模、覆盖深度、技术水平，以及运输组织与管理水平等，其中最基本、最重要的一个指标是交通路网规模。由于区域间经济基础、社会发展特征、资源禀赋等差异很大，如何科学评价不同区域的交通路网规模发展差距，并在此基础上制订适合区域经济和社会发展的交通运输政策和目标，是交通运输发展规划的一个重要方面。     

ITS对港口基础设施效率影响的多级模糊评价

智能交通系统(ITS)在港口运营管理中越来越重要,为科学地研究ITS对港口基础设施效率的影响程度,文章从功能、环境和资源三个角度,建立了港口基础设施效率影响的评价指标体系,同时定义了各基础影响指标,采用多级模糊评价模型分析ITS对港口基础设施效率的影响。评价结果能反映我国港口ITS发展情况,对促进我国港口基础设施的可持续发展有一定的指导意义。     

An ontological model to support communications of situation-aware vehicles

In an Intelligent Transport System (ITS) environment, the communication component is of great importance to support interactions between vehicles and roadside infrastructure. Previous studies have focused on the physical capability and capacity of the communication technologies, but the equally important development of suitable and efficient semantic content for transmission received notably less attention. Ontology is one promising approach for context modelling in ubiquitous computing environments, and in the transport domain it can be used both for context modelling and semantic contents for vehicular communications. This paper explores the development of an ontological model implementing relative geo-semantic information messages to support vehicle-to-vehicle communications. The proposed ontology model contains classes, objects, their properties/relations as well as some functions and query templates to represent and update the information of dynamic vehicles, inter-vehicle interactions and behaviour. This model was developed through a scenario enabling the evaluation of traffic conflict resolution approaches, by implementing a set of decision-making processes for intelligent vehicles. Given the scope of the proposed ontology modelling, it shows how vehicular communications can be used to update each vehicle’s context model. This work can be easily extended for more complex interactions among vehicles and the infrastructure.     

CO2 emissions and expansion of railway,road, airline and in-land waterway networks over the 1985–2013 period in China: A time series analysis

China, the world’s largest CO₂ emitter, is continuing its long-term strategy to use transportation investments as a tool for development. With the expectation that transportation will contribute 30–40% of the total CO₂ emissions in China in the near future, there is an imminent need to identify how the development of different transportation modes may have different long-term effects on CO₂ emissions. Using time series data over the period of 1985–2013, this paper applies the combined autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and vector error correction model (VECM) approach to identify short- and long-run causal relationships between CO₂ emissions and mode-specific transportation development, including railway, road, airline, and inland waterway. We find that China’s domestic expansions of road, airline, and waterway infrastructure lead to long-run increases in CO₂ emissions. Among them, waterway has the strongest positive impact on CO₂ emissions, followed by road. Despite a short-run, positive impact on CO₂ emissions, railway expansion leads to long-run decreases in CO₂ emissions. The results are especially encouraging for the central government of China given its long-standing and on-going efforts to expand railway infrastructure at the national level. Looking forward, it is recommended that China continues its national investments in railway infrastructure to achieve both environment and economy goals.     

Transport infrastructure and long-run economic growth in OECD countries

This paper provides an empirical evaluation of the growth impact of public infrastructure in a panel of 18 OECD countries during 1870–2009. This study goes beyond the traditional analysis of growth accounting models by exploring the indirect effect of stock of core infrastructure on output growth through its impact on productivity. Constructing a long-run historical dataset on infrastructural capital formation spanning from 1870, estimated results show that growth in both labour productivity and total factor productivity are positively, but not substantially, influenced by growth in the stock of infrastructure. Furthermore, applying the system GMM technique (Generalised Method of Moments) revels that although rate of returns to investment in infrastructure exceed the private rate in OECD countries, it is not as high as positive externalities associated with investment in equipment and structure investment.     

国外铁路运营安全效益评价现状及启示

铁路运输在国民经济运行中发挥着重要作用,各国铁路公司都非常重视对铁路运营、安全、效益的管理及评价。国外铁路经过两个世纪的发展,积累了丰富经验,通过分析美国、日本、欧洲等国家和地区的普速、高速铁路,在运营效率评价、运营安全评价、服务质量评价、经营效益评价、安全保障法律法规建设和第三方评价机构发展等方面的现状,从客户服务质量评价、安全评价标准体系建立、效率效益导向的经营效益评价机制建设、第三方专业评价机构发展等维度,总结对我国高速铁路运营安全效益评价的经验借鉴及启示。     

Urban transportation and equity: A case study of Beijing and Karachi

Development of mega cities of Pakistan and China has greatly been affected by the growth in urbanization and motorization. The uncontrolled rise in urbanization, motorization, exclusionary planning and disproportionate investment in transportation infrastructure has created a socio-economic imbalance, thereby challenging the issue of equity. This paper focuses on a comparative social equity assessment of urban development, characteristics of supply and demand of transportation and infrastructure systems and the impact of existing strategies over equity in the development of urban and transportation system of Beijing and Karachi. The paper concludes by suggesting some strategies for the development of sustainable and equitable urban transportation systems.     

集聚经济视角下轨道交通投资对城市系统均衡的影响

随着城镇化进程加快,城市规模增加所带来的集聚效应和交通拥堵等负外部性之间的矛盾越来越突出,优化城市交通基础设施建设是缓解该矛盾的重要举措。本文同时考虑了集聚经济和交通拥挤两种外部性,构建并求解了一个两区域城市空间结构模型,分三种情况探究了轨道交通的投资引入和道路容量的优化对城市规模和城市空间结构均衡的影响。结果表明,轨道交通的投资引入能够增加城市人口规模和社会福利,使城市结构更加紧凑。但是,随着集聚经济水平的提高,城市规划者应逐步完善公交配套设施,以降低公交拥挤成本,提高公交出行分担率;还应制定相应的福利政策,避免由于个体效用下降而导致人口流出。     

Transport infrastructure costs in low-carbon pathways

The rate and manner in which transport infrastructure (e.g. roads, railway tracks, airports) is deployed, will play an important role in determining energy demand, greenhouse gas emissions and the economic impact of the transport sector. This paper describes an exercise where the costs of infrastructure deployment for the transport sector have been incorporated into the IMACLIM-R Global E3 IAM. In addition to adding these costs, the modelling of the criteria for the deployment of infrastructure for roads has also been improved. It is found that this model recalibration results in a more accurate baseline as compared to historically observed data (2001–2013) for investments in energy demand, road infrastructure, and passenger kilometers travelled. Regarding macroeconomic effects, it is found that the imposition of a carbon emission trajectory to 2100 cause GDP to decrease relative to the newly calibrated baseline – this is a standard IAM result. However, when the deployment of infrastructure for roads and air travel is further constrained, the GDP loss is less than with a fixed carbon emission trajectory only. This is because early restriction of infrastructure for roads and air travel allows an expansion of public transport infrastructure which is adequate to meet low-carbon transport service demand whereas when less public transport infrastructure is available, more costly mitigation investments must be made in other parts of the economy. This suggests that restricting infrastructure deployment as a complementary policy to carbon pricing, lowers the cost of mitigation.