基于OILMAP模型的洋浦港溢油风险研究

本文从环境敏感资源识别、区域风险分析、船舶交通事故源项分析等方面分析了海南洋浦港溢油风险现状及发展形势,并研究了溢油事故的危害和致因。本文将Oilmap溢油轨迹和归宿模型应用于洋浦港溢油风险研究,采用情景分析法假定溢油事故场景,并预测各事故情景下,溢油到达岸线的时间、油膜扫海面积等指标,对溢油事故污染风险进行了分析。     

基于OILMAP模型的洋浦港溢油风险研究

本文从环境敏感资源识别、区域风险分析、船舶交通事故源项分析等方面分析了海南洋浦港溢油风险现状及发展形势,并研究了溢油事故的危害和致因。本文将Oilmap溢油轨迹和归宿模型应用于洋浦港溢油风险研究,采用情景分析法假定溢油事故场景,并预测各事故情景下,溢油到达岸线的时间、油膜扫海面积等指标,对溢油事故污染风险进行了分析。     

基于溢油轨迹和归宿模型的钦州湾溢油风险研究

本文从环境敏感资源、船舶交通量及油品运量、事故案例等方面分析了钦州湾溢油风险现状及发展形势,并研究了溢油事故的危害和致因。本文将Oilmap溢油轨迹和归宿模型应用于钦州湾溢油风险研究,采用情景分析法假定溢油事故场景,并预测各事故情景下,溢油到达岸线的时间、油膜扫海面积、污染岸线长度和着岸油量等指标。根据钦州湾溢油风险分析及事故后果模拟,提出了钦州湾溢油风险的防范措施。     

船舶溢油故障树分析与事故案例查询系统开发研究

根据故障树分析理论,基于MATLAB/GUI平台,构建了船舶溢油故障树分析与事故案例查询系统。该系统可实现针对船舶溢油事故发生原因和概率的定性和定量分析、及事故案例的多条件筛选查询功能。利用构建的系统对船舶碰撞导致溢油事故故障树模型进行了最小割集、顶事件概率和底事件重要度的求解分析,结果表明该系统操作简便,计算耗时少,结果准确,可以为船舶溢油事故风险分析提供辅助工具,具有很好的实用价值。     

天津港典型LNG码头海洋环境风险研究

文章针对天津港特殊的地理位置,周边敏感资源的特点,对天津港典型LNG码头的运输货种及燃料油的污染危害性进行了分析,对码头及船舶存在的风险进行了研究。运用Oilmap溢油轨迹和归宿模型,采用情景分析法假定溢油事故场景,对燃料油泄漏事故进行了模拟。根据研究结果,对天津LNG码头提出了风险的防范措施以及建议。     

码头项目环境风险评价的探讨

以码头营运时船舶燃油泄漏存在的环境风险为例,从码头风险事故识别、源项分析以及风险管理,应急预案等方面对拟建的码头进行风险评价,通过采用溢油扩散、漂移模型对该码头船舶发生漏油风险事故时对水质进行影响分析,为码头选址的环境可行性论证提供技术依据。     

基于互信息和贝叶斯网络的船舶碰撞风险预测研究

船舶碰撞事故对航行安全威胁严重,不仅会导致船舶、货物的损坏,还会对航道和水域环境造成污染,如果船上装载的石油、危化品等物质由于事故原因产生泄漏,更是会对临近水域及生态环境带来灾难性破坏。因此,对船舶(特别是危化品运输船舶)碰撞风险的预测和管理一直受到各界的重视。本文在全面分析船舶碰撞事故风险因素的基础上,利用互信息理论计算事故数据特征因素间互信息值,确定了各碰撞风险特征因素间的依赖关系,并最终建立了船舶碰撞险情的贝叶斯网络预测模型,以期为航运企业和航道管理单位的管理提供理论依据,从而减少船舶碰撞事故,保障我国航运业的安全、高效和绿色发展。     

海上溢油浮标跟踪定位技术研究

海上溢油属突发性海洋污染事故,需要人们进行快速应急反应,调用方方面面的应急技术装备及资源,尽可能对事故予以控制、减少所造成的环境污染等各种损害和不良影响。国内外支持溢油应急快速反应行动的相关技术主要用于以下方面:对海上溢油漂移的动态进行空中监视、浮标跟踪和模拟预测;对受威胁敏感资源发出污染预警,并采取必要措施加以保护;通过应急决策支持系统和溢油清污系统对海上溢油实施有效控制,采用适宜的回收设备进行清污。     

关于建立溢油污染损害评估体系的探讨

本文通过构建损害评估的指标体系,将不同损害类型、不同评估方法的溢油污染评估技术进行梳理,从而完善溢油污染损害评估流程。     

海上溢油应急处置方案的多属性决策分析

本文通过对有关溢油应急处置方案的多个属性特征进行分析、整理和加工,形成便于根据应急场景选择的应急处置优化方案;并在确定方案后,通过对应急资源的不同属性进行分类及归纳总结,得出不同环境气象条件、水文条件、溢油规模、油膜特性、布放条件下应急资源的选择方法,并给出计算应急资源需求量的估算方法,为决策者提供有益的方法借鉴和支撑。     

Analysis of factors affecting the choice of route of pedestrians

Pedestrians as compared to vehicular traffic enjoy a high degree freedom of movement even in heavily congested areas. Consequently, there are more alternative links available to pedestrians between a given origin‐destination (O‐D) pair. This paper describes a study done by the University of Calgary to evaluate the factors affecting the choice of route on intra‐CBD trips or trips within the Central Business District (CBD).

An origin destination survey conducted in downtown Calgary, Alberta enabled the identification of the most significant factors influencing the choice. These factors were analyzed in relation to the physical characteristics of the location, personal characteristics of the trip maker and the type of the trip.

It appears that most people chose the shortest link and factors such as the level of congestion, safety or visual attractions were only secondary. This suggests that the length should be made a major consideration when planning and designing pedestrian links.     

实现多组态计量软件集中监控的可行性分析

天然气自动计量系统有多种组态软件,由于软件的不相通性,造成了计量系统数据采集的通用性差、数据传输与入库的时效性差、数据利用的可靠性低.结合各组态软件的实际情况,从设计上充分利用Oracle大数据处理能力以及Partition(分区表)的特性,实现历史数据的存储,应用WebService与COM+数据访问组件提供多层数据访问架构,采用OPC与DDE工业数据交换协议,实现了各站场计量数据的实时上传,为连续数据采集和实时监控提供了可能,节约了改造成本.     

注汽管道承压能力评估和实物试验验证

基于失效评估图技术对某注汽管道进行了承压能力评价,给出了管线在不同腐蚀壁厚情况下的极限承压能力和极限裂纹尺寸。并利用实物爆破试验验证了评价方法的安全性和有效性,通过对爆破断口进行宏观和微观分析,发现管段的开裂属于脆性开裂。     

Non-parametric analyses of efficiency of airports

This paper estimates the efficiencies and productivity changes of 12 international airports in the Asia-Pacific region based on data from 1998 to 2006. We apply stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) to compute efficiency estimates and use the Malmquist productivity index (MPI) to analyze productivity changes. We use the SFA model with a translog-type production function after testing the statistical hypotheses. According to the results of the SFA hypothesis tests, airports have experienced a technological regression; the deviations from the efficiency frontier are caused more by technical inefficiency than random noise. However, the inefficiency was found to decrease. The MPI reveals a declining trend resulting more from technological change than from efficiency change, with a decrease in inefficiency. Taken together, both the hypothesis tests and the MPI not only provide consistent conclusions, but also suggest that airports should concentrate on technological progress.     

波纹管应力分析研究进展

评述了波纹管应力理论研究方法的进展情况，围绕解析法、工程近似法和数值法，对波纹管理论研究中的一些主要成果作了较详细的回顾和总结，对各种研究方法作出了评价，展望了亟待解决的一些问题。     

输油管道中原油乳状液的流变性研究

原油乳状液的流变性是原油开采后在管道中输送的重要研究方面,为了更好地研究这一性质,采用电动搅拌机、偏光显微镜以及流变仪等仪器来测定不同含水率的原油乳状液在不同条件下的黏度,观测不同含水率的原油乳状液在偏光显微镜下的形态。并且分别对原油乳状液的黏度与含水率之间的关系以及与剪切速率之间的关系进行研究,初步确定了所测区块原油乳状液的转相点以及该区块原油乳状液的流变特性,为生产中的油气集输提供了理论依据。     

埋地管道防腐保温层失效评价

明确埋地管道防腐保温层的技术评价标准,对埋地钢质管道的安全运行,延长管道使用寿命具有重要意义。为了对埋地管道防腐保温层做出有效评价,从间接检测与开挖检测2个方面,结合现场检测数据,提出了基于防腐保温层的电流衰减率、绝缘电阻率、质量状况与厚度的分级评价标准及基于4种评价指标的综合评判方法。工程实践表明,该评价标准对防腐保温层是否存在失效能做出有效判断。     

城市轨道交通杂散电流监测系统概述

介绍了城市轨道交通工程中杂散电流不同的监测系统的构成,分析了集中式、分散式和智能型等监测系统的配置和功能,以及智能型实时在线监测系统的重要意义,为轨道交通工程杂散电流监测系统的选择与应用提供参考。     

Preliminary results of an analysis of areas of influence in Shanghai

The main deficiency of most current modeling approaches to transportation can be identified as neglect of the integration of existing geographical knowledge in regard to the ex ante transport/land use modeling approaches, with its focus on territorial dynamics and theory development. This paper addresses this aspect of the problem by introducing a theoretical and methodological framework for the analysis of the interrelationship between land uses. The analysis attempts to determine to what extent the functional land use in a city can be considered an ordered pattern. The order sought does not rely on purely spatial configurations, but on the correlation of transportation and land use. The first section of this paper focuses on theoretical considerations. It stresses the fact that conventional approaches do not apply in the present context. It then suggests an alternative based on areas of influence and measured in terms of level of attractance of land uses. The second describes a procedure based on this alternative following the remarkable contribution of Hanjoul, Beguin and Thill. An application of this procedure to the analysis of Shanghai is then examined. Finally, an evaluation of the strategies for optimizing the interrelationship between land uses is presented. The paper concludes with a possible research agenda.     

Direct analysis of the perceived importance of attributes of reliability of travel modes in urban travel

Reliability of travel modes was found to be the most important characteristic of transportation systems in several attitudinal investigations of individual travel behavior. This paper represents the first part of a research effort aimed at gaining a better understanding of the characteristics of reliability of transportation modes in urban travel. In this research, reliability characteristics are identified; their importance relative to each other is assessed, and an insight into possible structure of an objective reliability index is discussed. The research is based on perceived values of reliability, which were identified through a large attitudinal survey conducted in the Chicago metropolitan area.