Approaches to dynamic transport planning

Dynamic transport planning refers to the analysis of the problem of choice of implementation date of the construction or improvement of transport facilities. This analysis may also include consideration of stage construction or progressive improvements in quality and/or capacity over time, beginning from some relatively low standard. A transport facility is defined as a vehicle (e.g., automobile, airplane) or a supporting facility (e.g., highway, port).There appears at present to be a serious lack of any truly comprehensive evaluation of the essentials of the problem of choice of implementation date. It is the intent of the ensuing presentation to help to rectify that situation by introducing new concepts which structure the timing problem. The concepts are based on a suggested classification of future traffic and definitions of independent and indivisible facilities. In addition, volume of traffic and benefits of a transport facility are recognized to be dependent on calendar time and the facility's age.Presently, no uniform theoretical framework exists for establishing the optimal time for constructing new facilities or improving existing ones. A framework based on the aforementioned concepts is introduced. It distinguishes between the phasing of projects through time in the absence of budget constraints and this phasing in the presence of such restrictions. The specific procedures suggested in this paper for the analysis of the problem of choice of implementation date apply to any individual transport facility and tend to unify the concepts involved in dynamic transport planning.The article concludes with a survey of current approaches to dynamic transport planning and discusses these in the light of the above framework.The study was supported by the Urban Mass Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation.     

Vulnerability and resilience of transport systems – A discussion of recent research

The transport system is critical to the welfare of modern societies. This article provides an overview of recent research on vulnerability and resilience of transport systems. Definitions of vulnerability and resilience are formulated and discussed together with related concepts. In the increasing and extensive literature of transport vulnerability studies, two distinct traditions are identified. One tradition with roots in graph theory studies the vulnerability of transport networks based on their topological properties. The other tradition also represents the demand and supply side of the transport systems to allow for a more complete assessment of the consequences of disruptions or disasters for the users and society. The merits and drawbacks of the approaches are discussed. The concept of resilience offers a broader socio-technical perspective on the transport system’s capacity to maintain or quickly recover its function after a disruption or a disaster. The transport resilience literature is less abundant, especially concerning the post-disaster phases of response and recovery. The research on transport system vulnerability and resilience is now a mature field with a developed methodology and a large amount of research findings with large potential practical usefulness. The authors argue that more cross-disciplinary collaborations between authorities, operators and researchers would be desirable to transform this knowledge into practical strategies to strengthen the resilience of the transport system.     

New operating concepts for intermodal transport: The mega hub in Hanover/Lehrte in Germany

In intermodal logistics, combined transport operators and railway companies are engaged in the development of efficient block train concepts. The proportion of transport using single railway wagons is decreasing because of its poor time-quality ratio. In future, transport services will be focussed on industrial zones and large cities that offer the transport volumes required for direct train operation. In this regard, it will become more difficult for regions with smaller load volumes to be integrated into a combined transport network. In order to confront this trend, new concepts for bundling transport volumes have to be developed. One such concept is the 'mega hub'. The core idea is to interchange load units between several block trains during a short stop at an intermodal terminal. The paper provides an overview of the operating concept of the mega hub and the opportunities for intermodal transport operators.     

Developing intermodal transport for small flows over short distances

Intermodal road-rail freight transport works best within markets with relatively large flows occurring over long distances, which corresponds poorly to the current demand for transport in the European Union. The purpose of this paper is to compare the capabilities of conventional European intermodal transport, with special reference to the competitiveness in markets with small flows over short distances, and to explore innovative concepts. Using a technological systems approach, key functions are identified as being the inducement and blocking mechanisms that affect the development and diffusion path of this 'small flows over short distances' (SFSD) system, providing a tool for empirical delineation of the system. These concepts are illustrated and analysed through a case study of the Swedish development project Light-combi. The results show that market and financial uncertainties, insufficient network connectivity and policies favouring the existing technology paradigm, severely hamper the development and diffusion of SFSD systems.     

Does transport help people to gain employment? A systematic review and meta-analysis of the empirical evidence

ABSTRACT

The role of transport in providing access to employment has received considerable attention. Since transport policies may be motivated by assumed effects on employment probability outcomes, it is important to establish the nature of the relationship between transport and employment outcomes. While the majority of the empirical evidence suggests a positive association, it is not conclusive or consistent and often shows mixed results. To address this confusion, our study has systematically reviewed this evidence base and synthesised it through meta-analysis. We first identified 93 studies that quantitatively assessed the impact of transport on employment outcomes. By systematically merging the empirical evidence, this study establishes a positive association between transport and employment outcomes, with varying effects for four identified categories of transport measures (or combinations thereof): car ownership, public transport access, commute times, and job accessibility levels. This positive association persists in studies that control for endogeneity between transport and employment, but a larger evidence base is needed to establish a more robust relationship, in particular for cities and smaller (rural) areas outside the US-context and with regard to public transport. We then selected 20 methodologically comparable studies for inclusion in the meta-analysis. Our meta-regression models clearly demonstrate that car ownership significantly increases individual employment probabilities, in particular among welfare recipients. Young drivers benefit from access to household cars when these are not in use by their parents, and they are more sensitive to the time and cost implications of longer commutes. While our systematic review suggests that better access to public transport and higher levels of job accessibility increases employment probabilities, meta-regression analysis requires more consistent transport measures. The findings in this study are important for policymakers in that they imply that job seekers may benefit from public policies targeted at improving their access to public transport, in particular for people without access to cars and in areas with fewer job opportunities.     

Investigating Links between Social Capital and Public Transport

Abstract

Social capital (SC) describes the advantage individuals and communities can gain from social participation, mutual assistance and trust. The provision of travel options for those who are socially disadvantaged is a major rationale for providing public transport. While there has been recent work on how transport can address social exclusion, SC has been overlooked. This article describes the theoretical basis of SC and suggests ways in which the concept might relate to public transport planning, research and practice. Disadvantaged groups can lack SC, mobility and accessibility. Public transport can provide mobility for this group and, in doing so, provide a greater opportunity to create social networks, trust and reciprocity. Although these concepts are abstract, plausible links are identified between the concepts of enhanced positive social interaction associated with the ‘livable city’ concept and those engendered in SC theory. Public transport by definition involves travelling with others and hence provides opportunities for social interaction while travelling. While a series of possible links between SC and public transport are theorized, it is unlikely these are necessarily strong since other mobility options are available and a range of land‐use and non‐transport alternatives can address social needs. Aspects of the SC concept are already covered by the social mobility and accessibility literature, although it does offer a wider insight into the potential advantages of improving access and mobility for disadvantaged communities. The concept of SC is complex and suffers from a ‘fuzzy’ definition. There is a lack of quantitative primary research associated with measuring SC. Measuring the influence of improved mobility options on SC in disadvantaged communities would be a worthwhile research area. Despite the challenges associated with researching SC, the links between SC and travel present an opportunity to understand how public transport acts to address social disadvantage through the provision of mobility to disadvantaged communities.     

The Impact of Urban Freight Transport: A Definition of Sustainability from an Actor's Perspective

Abstract

This paper presents a definition of sustainable urban freight transport (SUFT), based on the existing theories and concepts, and develops an indicator set that describes SUFT. The definition of SUFT makes a categorisation of actions possible which enables actors to select effective strategies towards SUFT. The indicator set consists of two levels: impact indicators – which describe how the urban freight transport violates the principles of sustainability; and performance indicators – which describe different categories determining the characteristics and performance of the urban transport system. A literature study analyses the characteristics determining the performance of actors in the urban freight transport chain. Knowing the current state and improvement potential of the urban freight transport system are prerequisites for defining successful strategies and implementing effective actions.     

Second international conference on new survey methods in transport Hungerford Hill,Australia 12–16 September 1983

The Second International Conference on New Survey Methods in Transport was held at Hungerford Hill, Australia in September 1983. The aims of the conference were to provide a focus for discussion of survey methodology and to establish bench‐marks with respect to the state of the art in various facets of transport surveys. The conference evolved around workshops in twelve key areas: sample design, survey needs for modelling, questionnaire design and piloting, perceptual studies, diary surveys, longitudinal studies, interactive survey methods, freight surveys, traffic surveys, total design concepts, response errors and data correction, and coding and computing.

A number of plenary keynote papers were also presented describing the state of the art in cross‐sectional, longitudinal and interactive survey methods. Emerging from the conference discussions, six key issues were prominent; the gap between the state of the art, as espoused by researchers, and the state of practice, as employed by practioners; the differences in results obtained when employing different survey methods to collect essentially the same data; the emerging use of the telephone for the conduct of interview travel surveys; the interaction between survey methods and demand modelling and the disparate levels of sophistication in the two areas; the role of microcomputers in the design, conduct and analysis of transport surveys; and the need for practitioners to engage in controlled experimentation, so that methodological advances may continue to be made in the field of transport surveys.     

Productivity change in transport: a survey

Because of the importance of transport in promoting economic development, there has been a long‐standing interest in the performance of transport industries and in the conditions which are likely to promote productivity growth. Fundamental to any debate on the subject, though, is the need to advance a satisfactory account of production and a way of deciding when productive performance has changed. This paper points out that there are pitfalls in the common practice of using measures such as output per man‐hour as an indicator of productivity and argues that a thorough understanding of the relationships between inputs and outputs can proceed from a knowledge of the economic theory of production.

The paper describes the relevant theoretical concepts and then examines applications of that theory in transport industries. It transpires that there is a growing literature on the subject, demonstrating a worldwide and multimodal interest in developing more rigorous and satisfying ways of measuring and analysing productivity difference. The techniques employed range from the more complex models at the forefront of economic theory, to rudimentary methods which are, at best, capable of testing only the simplest types of hypotheses. Nevertheless, it is argued that these studies have achieved a remarkable degree of success in enhancing analysis.

There can be no doubt that techniques will undergo further developments. However, it is likely that the greatest successes will come about through improvements in data which will permit applications of more complex, but proven techniques of analysis in relatively neglected areas such as road and maritime transport.     

The rationality of transport investment packages

Investment packages, involving several modes, emerge as a widely used element in urban transport policies. Package policies entail some specific possibilities and traps in the planning and decision-making processes. To assess these properties, the concepts of instrumental and communicative rationality are applied. These rationality concepts serve to structure the pro and con arguments concerning four crucial considerations in package planning: The use of formal impact assessment methods, the overall size and changeability of the investment packages, the share of road vs green modes investments, and the sequence of implementation. These issues are investigated by drawing on experience from transport investment packages in six Norwegian cities.     

Role model advocacy for sustainable transport

Individual aspirations of associating with role models are routinely harnessed by marketers, who for instance, use celebrity endorsement in selling brands and products. It appears there has been no research to date, however, on the potential for celebrity activism, or role model advocacy beyond celebrities, such as from politicians, to form effective interventions for encouraging sustainable transport behavior. This is despite studies suggesting that celebrity endorsement is a potential gateway for transforming public opinion on carbon intensive transport modes. The present paper consequently offers a critical review of the literature on role model advocacy and celebrity activism, and how these concepts have been harnessed to address environmental issues, in order to conceptually assess the potential for extending these intervention techniques to the context of sustainable transport. The scope of the paper includes the potential that high profile politicians/celebrities might play as role models in exercising referent power to influence social norms surrounding sustainable transport, given that the success of social marketing interventions are closely tied to the need for changes in the policy landscape. Key dimensions of role model endorsement in transport are identified and applied to a series of examples of how celebrity and political role models have influenced transport cultures. In addition to offering an original application of a theoretical framework to a new context, in order to help address the increasingly important societal issue of transport’s growing contribution to climate change, the paper discusses the challenges associated with the neoliberal framing of this approach.     

Recent developments in national and international freight transport models within Europe

The past decade has seen many new freight transport models for use in transport planning by public authorities. Some of these models have developed new concepts, such as logistics modules, inclusion of transshipments, storage and sourcing and the determination of shipment size. This paper provides a review of the European literature on freight transport models that operate at the national or international level and have been developed since 2004. The introduction of elements of logistics thinking is identified as a common theme in recently developed models, and further worked out. Furthermore, ideas on what might be the next key developments in freight transport modelling are presented.     

Defining domains for models of travel demand

Travel demand models implicitly assume that people respond to changes in a continuous way. This is in contrast to the physical sciences, where discontinuous response is a common phenomenon and is embodied in such concepts as sub-critical and supercritical states.Recent studies have shown that responses to transport policies differ in degree and kind according to the nature and severity of the stimulus and the types of people affected. Response patterns may be categorised by the extent to which they involve adjustments to spatio-temporal or inter-personal linkages. This paper identifies four response domains, with a further distinction between permissive and forced changes.Most travel demand models are designed to operate within an independent, forced (and to a less extent independent permissive) domain and their forecasts become unreliable when responses lie outside that domain. Conversely, a model designed for a more complex domain is unnecessarily cumbersome where simpler responses apply. This paper describes the types of model which are appropriate for each domain and discusses how the effects of a policy may be assigned to the correct domain(s).     

Up‐to‐the‐minute information as we drive—how it can help road users and traffic management

Road transport of today has a substantial need for a better information system. The European research programmes PROMETHEUS and DRIVE offer the prospect of new techniques and strategies. The role of information in road transport is analysed from the viewpoint of the individual drivers and from the viewpoint of the traffic manager. All necessary information must be brought together and a complex data‐bank system for road transport should be installed. As examples of advanced information systems the concepts of the ‘Wolfsburg wave’ for in‐car speed recommendation and of the LISB field experiment in route guidance in Berlin are explained.     

The importance of new‐generation freight terminals for intermodal transport

Manufacturers have been promoting new terminal concepts for several years. They claim more efficient operations, shorter handling times and lower costs compared to conventional operations. However, so far no new‐generation terminals have been implemented, nor is there any intention yet to implement them. This is regrettable, because if new‐generation terminal concepts can achieve what their designers claim, these terminals could significantly improve the competitiveness of intermodal transport. It is expected that new‐generation terminals will perform particularly well in complex bundling networks such as hub and spoke, collection‐distribution and line networks. A static‐process analysis is used to evaluate the claimed terminal performances. The method incorporates the terminal function and the type of bundling network. Specific network situations have been defined for each type of bundling network. This study shows that the new concepts perform better than the reference terminal and shunting in complex bundling operations.     

The applicability of non-cooperative game theory in transport analysis

Various models that incorporate concepts from Non-Cooperative Game Theory (NCGT) are described in the transport literature. Game Theory provides powerful tools for analysing transport systems, but these tools have some drawbacks that should be recognised. In the current paper we review games that describe transport problems and discuss them within a uniform context. Although the paper does not introduce new tools, it presents insights concerning the relations between transport models and games. We divide existing games into groups and show that some common features characterise multiple games. We distinguish between games that make a conceptual contribution and games that are suitable for application. Compact or symmetric game structures make remarkable observations but often do not support actual decision-making. Less aesthetic formats, most of which are Stackelberg games between authorities and travellers, are stronger as instruments that assist in determining real-life policies; these formulations can be treated by practitioners as mathematical programs with equilibrium constraints and not as games. Yaron Hollander is currently conducting economic research of bus reliability at the Institute for Transport Studies at the University of Leeds. He previously worked for the Technion—Israel Institute of Technology; for the Israel Institute for Transportation Planning and Research; and for the public transport department at Ayalon Highways Co. Joseph N. Prashker is a professor at the Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering at the Technion—Israel Institute of Technology. Till recently he served as head of the Transportation Research Institute at the Technion. His interests are behavioural demand models, network analysis, and Game Theory applications in transportation.     

绿色交通概念解析

分析了交通系统对资源环境的影响机理,在考察"可持续发展"、"低碳"、"节能减排"、"循环"等相关概念的基础上,提出绿色交通的内涵,并对其发展要求和具体理念进行了分析。     

Deregulating the bus industry in Britain: a reply

In the last four years, some 20 urban areas in the UK have commissioned or considered conducting Integrated Transport Studies, which are designed to develop a transport strategy for the next 20–30 years. Such studies represent a new approach to transport policy formulation, since they respond to a vision of the future for the area, treat a wide range of transport and land use policy instruments, emphasize synergy between those instruments, and provide a framework for facilitating action rather than a rigid blueprint for the future. They also differ from past studies in the speed with which they have been conducted, and in the analytical techniques which have made this possible. This paper reviews the background to these studies, the evaluation approach adopted, the policy instruments considered and the analytical methods developed for the studies. It concludes with an assessment of the policy implications stressing in particular the need to reduce trip length, the crucial impact of pricing as an instrument of transport policy, the importance of achieving synergy in strategy development, and the requirement for a common basis for evaluating and financing different transport policy instruments.     

红水河连续翻坝滚装运输需求和要素研究

文章以贵州黔西南州煤炭为对象，进行红水河连续翻坝滚装运输需求和要素研究，阐明了红水河滚装运输的客观需求，论证了红水河开展滚装运输应考虑的各种要素，指明该滚装运输方式具有良好的开发前景和经济意义。     

Total water requirements of passenger transport modes

With a growing urban population, it is crucial to maintain and develop environmentally friendly transport modes. However, while one of the most important indicators of environmental performance is water use, very few studies have quantified the total water requirements associated with different transport modes.This study uses input-output analysis to quantify the total water requirements of different passenger-transport modes in Melbourne, Australia, including the direct and indirect water requirements of petrol cars, regional diesel trains and electric metropolitan trains.Results show that urban electric trains are the least water intensive transport mode (3.4 L/pkm) followed by regional diesel trains (5.2 L/pkm) and petrol cars (6.4 L/pkm). These intensities result in average daily per capita transport-related water use that can be greater than residential water use. Findings also show that occupancy rates greatly affect the water intensity of transport modes and that when occupied by five passengers, cars are the least water intensive transport mode. Finally, this study shows that water use associated with transport depends on a range of factors across the supply chain and that indirect requirements associated with operations, including administration, advertisement, servicing and others, can represent a significant share of the total. Reducing the total water requirements of transport modes is therefore a shared responsibility between all the actors involved and integrated action plans are needed in order to reduce water use associated with transport.