机场货运发展中政策影响的可持续性研究

自2008年金融危机后,中国机场货运迎来了蓬勃发展,各地政府出台的政策对于机场货运的发展具有重要的意义。首先确定影响货邮吞吐量的因素,其次根据机场的实际发展情况做出三种假设,并在此基础上引入虚拟变量,构建多元线性回归模型,最后对郑州新郑机场、西安咸阳机场、南宁吴圩机场、海口美兰机场和无锡硕放机场进行实例验证。结果表明:机场货邮吞吐量受该地区经济和政策两个因素同时影响,政策因素对于机场货运的影响具有时效性,并且不同的政策类型对于机场货运的影响效果不同,间接支持型政策对于机场货运影响的持续性较强,直接投资型政策见效速度快,政府在颁布政策时不仅要根据机场实际情况考虑经济因素和政策因素影响的大小,还要根据机场当前的需要选择适合的政策类型。     

交通运输行业推进通用航空发展的有关建议

2016年5月,国务院办公厅印发了《关于促进通用航空业发展的指导意见》,将通用航空发展上升为国家战略,对未来一段时期我国通用航空业发展作出了总体部署。本文深入分析了当前我国通用航空发展现状,梳理了存在的主要问题,总结了问题产生的深层次原因,分析了通用航空的发展趋势,并结合我国实际情况,从优化通用机场建设顶层设计、强化重点类型通用机场建设、完善通用机场配套设施、拓展通用航空服务范围、完善通用航空有关政策等方面提出了交通运输行业推进通用航空发展的有关建议,最后明确了交通运输部在推进通用航空发展中的着力点。     

基于功能定位的中小机场发展之路

中小机场的建设和发展有其不可或缺的作用和意义。基于经济驱动型、旅游驱动型以及交通驱动型而建设的机场对我国经济社会的发展起到了非常重要的作用。但是中小机场由于客货业务量少,其发展比较艰辛。本文借鉴美国中小机场的功能定位,提出了我国中小机场发展,需要明确功能定位、适当发展通用航空业务以及进行合理的规划和布局的发展策略及政策建议。     

美国机场时刻分配政策演变的经济学分析

本文将美国机场时刻分配政策演变分成了4个阶段,然后,从机场时刻资源供给与需求的特性出发,说明时刻资源配置的特殊要求,并从经济学角度对美国机场时刻分配政策演变进行了分析。     

运输政策变迁的阶段与类型分析

提出运输政策变迁的阶段不仅与运输业的发展状况密切相关,而且与政治领域中的政治因素和社会文化因素密切相关;将具体运输政策变迁的类型划分为扩大运输供给能力的运输政策变迁、重新分配经济利益的运输政策变迁、重新分配社会福利的运输政策变迁等三种类型。     

通用机场净空区规划研究

通用机场的净空规划与运输机场一样,对机场的运营安全与周边规划都非常重要。然而,通用机场的净空规划与运输机场有所不同,通用机场的净空规划对通用机场的规划建设至关重要,直接涉及到机场选址以及周边净空管理的问题,因此通用机场的净空规划研究显得非常有必要。本文针对我国通用机场的特点,通过对有关民航标准的深入研究,阐述了通用机场净空区的组成及影响因素,提出了简单而实用的通用机场净空区规划方法,并进行了案例分析,可为我国通用机场的净空规划与净空保护提供一定的借鉴。     

区域内机场航空货运发展竞合关系 分析与建议

本文主要从经济学的角度研究一定区域内部机场发展航空货运业务的竞争与合作关系。文章首先分析了我国货邮量在枢纽机场和支线机场的分布特征,在此基础上,应用经济学中的社会福利概念,对"是否要将某个支线机场建设发展为以航空货运功能为主的机场"这一问题进行建模分析,并从机场和托运人的角度对模型结果进行了讨论。文章最后针对模型分析讨论结果从支持支线机场走专业化航空货运发展路径、机场航空货运收费和地方政府对航空货运的补贴等方面提出了相关的政策建议。     

基于灰色理论的通用机场安全风险评价体系研究

为提高我国通用机场的安全管理水平,本文从我国通用机场实际发展现状出发,在收集并研究国内外安全评价体系的基础上,确定了通用机场安全风险评价指标。采用灰色评价理论,根据预定目标建立了安全风险评价体系,通过系统分析,对通用机场运行中的安全风险形成一个可供参考的水平。本研究可帮助局方和通用机场识别风险,有利于机场自身和局方对通用机场安全进行持续的监督和检查,进而保障我国通用机场可持续发展。     

通用机场升级转换为运输机场的机制构建思考

研究通用机场升级转换为运输机场,是国务院办公厅《关于促进通用航空业发展的指导意见》中的重点任务之一。本文从通用机场与运输机场的异同入手,明确升级转换的内涵,分析升级转换的现实需求及问题,提出了通用机场升级转换亟待构建的沟通、决策、评估、监督等四方面机制。本研究旨在促进通用机场与运输机场动态联动发展,优化提升机场体系功能。     

海南省多机场体系协同发展建议

航空运输是进出海南省最重要的交通运输方式之一,对海南经济社会发展起着重要作用。为进一步加快海南自由贸易港建设,需要切实推进航空运输来往自由便利,这对海南多机场体系建设提出了更高要求。目前,海南省多机场体系正在快速成长阶段,但航空运输市场需求与基础设施供给不足的矛盾突出,机场功能定位和管理体制还有待理顺。本文梳理了海南省多机场体系发展特征,分析研究了协同发展面临的问题,最后提出相关发展建议。     

The reciprocal relationship between policy debate and media coverage: The case of road pricing policy in the Netherlands

This study examined the changes in the media coverage of two road pricing schemes proposed in the Netherlands in the period 1998–2010, as well as the link between the media coverage and the policy debate. Both pricing proposals were debated for several years and neither was introduced. Our findings show that space allocation for type of overall tone (e.g. negative or positive towards a pricing proposal) and the range of issues and policy actors in the media coverage were very different for the two proposals, and for each proposal fluctuated greatly over time. Our analysis suggests that such a variation in the media coverage was a reflection of changes in the content of the policy debate (e.g. caused by the specific design features of pricing proposal under discussion, the different policy actors engaged in the debate and their messages about the proposal). This indicates that policymakers can influence the media coverage of road pricing policies to some extent by managing the policy debate. Our findings also show not only that changes in the content of the policy debate were reflected in the media coverage, but also that the media coverage influenced the policy debate: the statements or actions of policy actors received media coverage, which then in turn stimulated the policy debate. However, the influence of media on the policy debate was rather indirect, in that policy actors mostly reacted to the messages from other policy actors reported in the media and to a lesser extent to the media coverage itself.     

Sustainable mobility: Policy design and implementation in three Norwegian cities

The paper explores barriers for designing and implementing policies for the transition to more environmentally sustainable urban mobility, and strategies for overcoming these barriers in three Norwegian cities. Empirical data has been collected by interviewing key informants and analysing relevant documents. The findings show that there is broad political support for placing sustainable mobility high on the political agenda. Challenges appear when policy measures are designed and implemented. Cultural, legal, political, organisational, financial and knowledge-related barriers are identified. Many similar barriers are identified in the three case cities, but differences also appear. The results indicate that the size of the cities as well as the type of policy packages implemented are important factors, impacting both the type and strength of barriers. Several strategies for overcoming barriers have been implemented in the three case cities with success. The implementation of policy packages with a combination of “push” and “pull” measures is perhaps the most important strategy. In addition, using communication strategically and allowing for trials and step-by-step introduction of policy measures are success factors. Better methods for stakeholder involvement and planning tools for bicyclists and pedestrians may increase the acceptance of policy measures and speed up the transition toward sustainable mobility.     

A virtual environment for the formulation of policy packages

The interdependence and complexity of socio-technical systems and availability of a wide variety of policy measures to address policy problems make the process of policy formulation difficult. In order to formulate sustainable and efficient transport policies, development of new tools and techniques is necessary. One of the approaches gaining ground is policy packaging, which shifts focus from implementation of individual policy measures to implementation of combinations of measures with the aim of increasing efficiency and effectiveness of policy interventions by increasing synergies and reducing potential contradictions among policy measures. In this paper, we describe the development of a virtual environment for the exploration and analysis of different configurations of policy measures in order to build policy packages. By developing systematic approaches it is possible to examine more alternatives at a greater depth, decrease the time required for the overall analysis, provide real-time assessment and feedback on the effect of changes in the configurations, and ultimately form more effective policies. The results from this research demonstrate the usefulness of computational approaches in addressing the complexity inherent in the formulation of policy packages. This new approach has been applied to the formulation of policies to advance sustainable transportation.     

Vicious or virtuous circles? Exploring the vulnerability of drivers to break low urban speed limits

Levels of support for 20 mph limits in Great Britain are consistently high. However, these positive attitudes are not translating into similarly positive behaviour changes in terms of complying with these new speed limits. Recent research from the authors studied the complex relationship between support and compliance, with qualitative findings suggesting that copycat driving could create a ‘vicious circle effect’ that leads to increased levels of non-compliance. However it is also possible that an alternative ‘virtuous circle’ effect may emerge from the high levels of societal support for 20 mph limits pressurising drivers to comply with speed limits. In this work the authors investigated these issues and we report on data and analysis of a large scale survey of drivers and residents undertaken in Great Britain. We explain the origins of vicious and virtuous circles in driver behaviour and study the data from the survey, offering an analysis of attitudes and claimed behaviours that has implications for policy-makers and professionals working with low urban speed limits. We discuss the issues for speed limit enforcement, making reference to the public relations ‘battle’ for public opinion. It is concluded that normative compliance, triggered by community and other campaigning, may be the most realistic mechanism for countering the difficulties of government funding in promoting compliance.     

Policy measures to promote electric mobility – A global perspective

Research that addresses policy measures to increase the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) has discussed government regulations such as California’s Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) or penalties on petroleum-based fuels. Relatively few articles have addressed policy measures designed to increase the adoption of EVs by incentives to influence car buyers’ voluntary behavior. This article examines the effects of such policy measures. Two of these attributes are monetary measures, two others are traffic regulations, and the other three are related to investments in charging infrastructure. Consumer preferences were assessed using a choice-based conjoint analysis on an individual basis by applying the hierarchical Bayes method. In addition, the Kano method was used to elicit consumer satisfaction. This not only enabled the identification of preferences but also why preferences were based on either features that were “must-haves” or on attributes that were not expected but were highly attractive and, thus, led to high satisfaction. The results of surveys conducted in 20 countries in 5 continents showed that the installation of a charging network on freeways is an absolute necessity. This was completely independent from the average mileage driven per day. High cash grants were appreciated as attractive; however, combinations of lower grants with charging facilities resulted in similar preference shares in market simulations for each country. The results may serve as initial guidance for policymakers and practitioners in improving their incentive programs for electric mobility.     

Truck parking in urban areas: Application of choice modelling within traffic microsimulation

Urban truck parking policies include time restrictions, pricing policies, space management and enforcement. This paper develops a method for investigating the potential impact of truck parking policy in urban areas. An econometric parking choice model is developed that accounts for parking type and location. A traffic simulation module is developed that incorporates the parking choice model to select suitable parking facilities/locations. The models are demonstrated to evaluate the impact of dedicating on-street parking in a busy street system in the Toronto CBD. The results of the study show lower mean searching time for freight vehicles when some streets are reserved for freight parking, accompanied by higher search and walking times for passenger vehicles.     

Sub‐optimal decision‐making and the transportation problem

A modification to the transportation problem is outlined that aims to improve the quality of predictions of trip matrices, and at the same time, allow some behavioural and economic insights. A framework is suggested within which this modification may be made and a suitable statistic and iterative process are described. A simple example demonstrates the validity of the modification and suggests some areas of difficulty with the approach.     

The origin of California’s zero emission vehicle mandate

The California Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) rule, adopted in 1990, is arguably one of the most daring and controversial air quality policies ever adopted. Some consider it a policy failure, while others credit it with launching a revolution in clean automotive technology. This paper is the first systematic empirical study of the policy process that resulted in the adoption of the ZEV mandate. We draw upon theoretical frameworks of the policy process, empirical data from public documents, and personal interviews with key stakeholders, to explain how a confluence of technology, policy, and political circumstances created a window of opportunity that led to the adoption of this policy. We expect the conclusions of our analysis to be useful to other policy debates that involve technological innovation.     

Effectiveness of incentives on electric vehicle adoption in Norway

Battery Electric vehicles (BEVs) shift pollution off the road and to potentially less damaging and more varied sources than petroleum. Depending on the source of electricity, a transition to electrified personal transportation can dramatically reduce greenhouse gas emissions and air pollutants. However current EVs tend to be more expensive and have shorter range, which can hinder public adoption. Government incentives can be used to alleviate these factors and encourage adoption. Norway has a long history incentivizing BEV adoption including measures such as exemption from roadway tolls, access to charging infrastructure, point of sale tax incentives, and usage of public bus use limited lanes. This paper analyzed the sales of electric vehicles on a regional and municipal basis in Norway and then cross analyzed these with the corresponding local demographic data and incentive measures to attempt to ascertain which factors lead to higher BEV adoption. It was concluded that access to BEV charging infrastructure, being adjacent to major cities, and regional incomes had the greatest predictive power for the growth of BEV sales. It was also concluded that short-range vehicles showed somewhat more income and unemployment sensitivity than long-range vehicles. Toll exemptions and the right to use bus designated lanes do not seem to have statistically significant predictive power for BEV sales in our linear municipal-level models, but this could be due to neighboring major cities containing those incentive features.     

Transport policy scenario-building

Long-term planning decisions must be as robust as possible to withstand such changes in the policy-making environment. This calls for a new approach for identifying how policies might fare under different types of conditions and for identifying robust no-regrets strategies. This paper outlines a systematic and logical framework for the development of policy scenarios and shows how scenarios can be used in the analysis of future policy options. The article discusses how scenario analysis can be used to identify, anticipate and assess policy options for the future in an environment of uncertainty, mainly using examples of transport policy in Europe.