“一带一路”中老泰铁路运输风险评价及保费研究

随着“一带一路”设施联通建设的不断推进,作为泛亚铁路中线工程的中老泰铁路也是其中重要的一部分。为研究一带一路中老泰铁路货物运输风险以及相关保费计算,本文首先采用层次分析法得到铁路货物运输过程中存在的政治因素、气候因素、运维因素和自然力因素的风险以及不同风险因素组合的权重;其次基于N-K模型对风险进行耦合,并且结合权重计算风险耦合值,根据风险耦合值划分风险区间,不同风险区间对应的附加费率不同,最后利用保费计算公式可以得到保险费用。本文末以中老泰铁路运输水果为例,基于不同风险因素的耦合得到15个风险耦合值,并计算保费,得出不同风险下的保费结果。     

春运紧张更需消解高铁风险

春运紧张穿梭如织，京沪高铁发生故障，导致数趟列车晚点，幸无旅客生命安全之虞。如许晚点之扰与安全之忧，或能在归心似箭的情愫与春节团圆的气氛氤氲中被稀释和冲淡。不能不说，此次京沪高铁故障，即是风险露头的一个表征。其所带来的危害虽很微弱，但在反思和检讨的深刻方面却不能轻易滑过。铁道部称，故障原因是“受雨雾天气影响，京沪高铁车顶高压设备绝缘值降低，     

南京地铁十号线越江隧道主要风险及措施研究

根据南京地铁越江隧道的环境、工程及水文地质情况,分析了大断面盾构掘进过程中存在的主要风险及其后果;针对不同的风险提出了不同的预防措施,以及事故发生后的处理措施。通过这种掘进前的风险预判与处理措施的提前拟定,可以预防和减少掘进中安全质量事故的发生,同时对于后续工程也有借鉴意义。     

管道风险分析指数评分法中分值调整初探

管道风险分析指数评分法中重要步骤之一就是确定影响管道事故因素的权重,各个管道风险因素在整个管道事故中所占的权重是不相同的。针对目前管道风险分析指数评分法基本假设之一（各因素的分值范围都是0～100分）,为了更加客观、准确、合理地反映各个风险因素对于管道事故的影响程度,提出并论述了依据层次分析法的数学逻辑性进行综合计算得出管道风险因素的权重,然后对评分法中各个因素的最高分值,根据其权重不同进行相应调整,从而增强评价者对风险因素的认识和评判能力,提高管道风险评价结果的准确性。     

营运大客车正面碰撞乘员伤害的研究

客车发生正面碰撞事故约占客车碰撞事故的50%~60%。利用LS-DYNA软件,建立了包括假人、安全带和安全气囊在内的大客车车体有限元模型,对不同速度下营运大客车的正面碰撞特性进行了模拟仿真计算,分析了无任何保护措施、佩戴安全带及佩戴安全带且安全气囊起爆三种事故形态下乘员头部HPC值、胸部压缩量和大腿骨轴向接触力等伤害值。研究结果表明,安全带对于驾驶员的保护意义重大,为营运大客车乘员保护设计以及合理制定营运大客车正面碰撞法规提供数据参考。     

桥梁工程事故回顾分析与对策探讨

本文通过回顾从19世纪初以来世界上主要发生的桥梁事故情况,选取其中三个较为典型的桥梁事故,分析其倒塌的原因,并结合作者收集的信息,统计出桥梁事故发生的规律,从而对避免桥梁工程事故的发生提出一些建议和对策。     

音视频、信息技术和通信技术设备安全要求标准解读——安全距离要求值的确定

为了防止人体触及或接近危险带电电路造成触电事故,那么在人体和危险带电电路之间需要保持一定距离。就是说人员在操作或接触与交流电网电源(如交流220 V供电)直接连接的音视频设备、信息技术设备和通信技术设备时,所有接触部位(包括电路部件和导体)与其供电电源电路之间应有一个安全距离,以确保人身安全。     

高速公路机电设备智能运行监测系统研究

本文主要利用物联网应用基础平台进行物联网应用建设,将高速公路各机电设备的数据和业务进行不同程度的融合,从而构建出高速公路机电设备智能运行监测系统,可实时监测高速公路机电设备供电情况、网络情况、在线率等。该系统能够及时发现设备故障,并将故障设备位置和故障原因反馈给机电维护人员,从而及时处理故障、提高机电维护效率和降低机电维护人力成本,达到降本增效、节能环保的目的。     

码头项目环境风险评价的探讨

以码头营运时船舶燃油泄漏存在的环境风险为例,从码头风险事故识别、源项分析以及风险管理,应急预案等方面对拟建的码头进行风险评价,通过采用溢油扩散、漂移模型对该码头船舶发生漏油风险事故时对水质进行影响分析,为码头选址的环境可行性论证提供技术依据。     

上海轨道交通建设工程风险远程监控管理的探索与研究

城市轨道交通工程的建设工点多、摊子大、施工的难度和环境保护要求高,近年来在全国各地轨道交通工程建设过程中,时有较大的工程事故发生。如何控制工程的风险成为轨道交通大规模建设迫切需要解决的问题。以具体工程为例,提出用远程监控管理的方法系统地控制工程风险,并阐述实现远程监控管理的要件及其组成。     

Survey of R&D in PRT systems

A survey of research and development in advanced transit has been made by Chalmers University of Technology in Gothenburg in cooperation with Trans21 in Boston. Summary findings are reported for fourteen academic research programs and ten development programs for PRT. An earlier version of this paper was presented at the International Conference of PRT and other Emerging Systems held in Minneapolis in 1996.     

The Impact of Container Type Diversification on Regional British Port Development Strategies

Abstract

Despite a concentration of container traffic in the southeast of the UK over the last few decades, regional ports are attempting new development strategies to capture or retain specific traffic segments. These include intra-European short-sea traffic and a potentially increasing feeder market. These trends are reflected in the movement of different container types, which result in a number of planning challenges related to changing infrastructural and operational requirements. This paper uses highly disaggregated data on container type movements to address three issues that can inform these planning challenges. First, the imbalance of trade resulting in empty container repositioning; second, the requirement for gauge-cleared rail routes to cater for the increasing proportion of high-cube containers; and third, the specialisation of European short-sea traffic at secondary UK ports. The results reveal the disproportionate repositioning of empty containers at Scottish ports and the importance of 45?ft, high-cube and pallet-wide containers at regional ports, highlighting their focus on intra-European short-sea traffic and raising difficulties relating to their lower quality of landside infrastructure (particularly rail) in comparison to the large south-eastern ports. The potential repercussions on hinterland infrastructure development raise questions about both public and private sector responses to regional port development.     

Modular route bus design – A method of meeting transport operation and vehicle manufacturing requirements

This research examines the problem of route bus specification and vehicle manufacturability. In order for bus operators to provide transport services, a range of vehicle configurations must be available from bus manufacturers, generating variety which has a negative impact on the manufacturing process. Larger part inventories, uncontrolled labour tasks and more troublesome maintenance are known impacts of this variety. This research identifies the functional necessities in route bus interior design and reduces the problems in bus manufacture and operation caused by specification diversity by proposing a modularised system of bus design. In particular, it makes recommendations as to how bus configuration should be carried out, ensuring an optimum mix of operational and manufacturing needs:

• 1.Determine user needs before the bus specification process.
• 2.Designs to be developed by the manufacturer in response to user needs.
• 3.This design should be standardised where possible, as suggested by the user needs.
• 4.Where user needs dictate product variations, apply a mass customisation approach to accommodate these needs.

The recommendations are communicated in design proposals for a modular bus interior, demonstrated by four cases designed to meet the present status quo of bus interior design and predictions for the future of the field.     

Determinants of modal choice in freight transport

In the next few years, exciting developments in the field of freight transport are likely to occur. The Channel Tunnel will be perceived as giving railways much greater distance of operation, compared to the current train ferry to/from Great Britain. The further development of swap-body technology will allow easier modal transfer and the creation, in 1992, of a single market in Europe will transform the pattern of trade. All of these are likely to have significant impacts on modal choice, and hence modal split, in freight transport. Reappraisal by many firms of the modes of transport used is likely but will it result in a net transfer of freight from road to rail and, if so, to what extent? To answer such questions, an accurate and reliable method of predicting modal split is required. Research in the past has concentrated on the development of modal split models based on generalised costs. These fail to explain adequately the prevalence of road freight in the UK. From surveys of freight managers within industry, it is clear that models to date rely too heavily on the economic cost factor and too little on behavioural factors (Jeffs 1985). This paper derives from a recent study of freight transport modal choice from the standpoint of the transport decision-maker within the firm. It attempts to shed light on the actual parameters which should be incorporated into a modal split model. Many variables appear to exert an influence on modal choice decision-making process. However, it is possible to categorise them into six main groups, namely: customer-requirements; product-characteristics; company structure/organisation; government interventions; available transport facilities; and perceptions of the decision-maker him/herself. It is the interactions and inter-relationships between these which ultimately determine freight modal split. This study has shown that the relationship between the outcome of the transport decision process and the values of particular determinants of modal split is not straight-forward, due to the complexity and variety of interactions involved. Perhaps one of the main reasons for researchers' failure hitherto to develop a successful modal-split model has been the preoccupation with techniques that rely on the development of common metric (e.g. generalised cost), which has led to the exclusion of some important explanatory variables along quite different dimensions. Another important issue concerns the appropriate level of aggregation. In order not to reduce the explanatory power of the key variables, it is important to work at a disaggregate level, although this does make substantial demands on data. The use of factor analysis enables both the aggregation of information without loss of behavioural reality and the specification of variables in terms of a common metric. In conclusion, freight transport has usually been examined within too narrow a framework. It must be placed firmly within the context of the total industrial process. The demand for freight transport is directly influenced by the level, composition and geographical distribution of production and consumption activities. Freight flows are complex and so it is highly unlikely that a universal mode-choice model can ever be developed. Future research should, therefore, be directed towards developing partial models in response to specific needs of those involved in decision-taking in the freight sector.     

A century of evolution of the accessibility concept

The concept of accessibility has acquired numerous meanings along multiple dimensions during the century of its evolution. This essay argues for the salience of two dimensions: application-based and definition-based. In its application, accessibility has incorporated positive and normative dimensions which have varied in prominence over time. In its definition, accessibility has varied between a mode of evaluation incorporating measured mobility and proximity, on the one hand, and a predefined market basket of urbanist improvements to transportation and land use systems, on the other. Advocates of the accessibility shift should emphasize both the measured approach to accessibility and accessibility’s normative side.     

Optimization of bus stop locations for improving transit accessibility

A mathematical model is developed in this paper to improve the accessibility of a bus service. To formulate the optimization model, a segment of a bus route is given, on which a number of demand entry points are distributed realistically. The objective total cost function (i.e. the sum of supplier and user costs) is minimized by optimizing the number and locations of stops, subject to non‐additive users' value of time. A numerical example is designed to demonstrate the effectiveness of the method thus developed to optimize the bus stop location problem. The sensitivity of the total cost to various parameters (e.g. value of users' time, access speed, and demand density) and the effect of the parameters on the optimal stop locations are analyzed and discussed.     

Productive efficiency and ownership of urban bus services

The established ownership mix of urban bus operations in Australia provides a unique opportunity to investigate the productivity differences between public and private bus service supply. Using duality theory in economics which links economic indices of factor productivity to the cost structure of a firm, we develop empirical measures of total and partial productivity of inputs, and adjust the differences for the effects of ownership status and operating environment. The evidence supports the notion that private supply of public passenger transport in general has performed more efficiently in the past than public supply, although the differences in productivity need not continue in the future.