基于熵权-Topsis的中老铁路运营管理模式选择

本文从定量的角度出发，提出熵权-Topsis相结合的综合评价法，在三种运营管理模式中选择最适合中老铁路的方式。通过文献资料、项目资料以及专家咨询，分析影响合资铁路运营管理模式的多个因素，建立了综合评价指标体系，包括四个准则层和十二个指标层。首先根据专家打分建立指标的判断矩阵，接着采用熵权法得到其权重值，然后采用Topsis法计算各方案到最优方案的贴近值，求得最优方案。通过济青高铁进行可行性验证，最后应用于中老铁路，得到最合适的方案。     

“一带一路”沿线基础设施投资风险评估

为全面评估“一带一路”对外铁路基础设施投资风险,首先构建数据-地理信息驱动下的考虑政治、经济、社会、需求、自然环境的风险评估指标体系;其次,采用最佳-最差方法 (Best Worst Method, BWM)确定风险评估指标权重,利用WASPAS方法对沿线国家进行风险评估与排序;最后以沿线60个国家进行实证分析,创新性地利用地理信息系统(GIS)获取各国地形地貌风险特征,将风险评估结果划分为五个风险等级分析。研究发现经济风险、政治风险在投资风险中占有很大比重,社会局势不稳定等因素会影响铁路建设进度,自然环境风险偏高会加大铁路基础设施建设的技术难度,从而影响直接投资的成本。     

高速铁路调度指挥风险耦合分析

为分析不同风险在高速铁路调度指挥系统内的耦合情况,将风险按照风险来源和事故处理所需工种进行分类,采用N-K模型定量分析风险之间的耦合机理。结合929起历史事故记录,分别计算单因素、双因素和三因素风险发生的概率,以及双因素、三因素耦合风险值。结果表明:参与耦合的风险种类越多,耦合风险值越大;车体设备故障、供电类设备故障在耦合风险事故记录中出现较多。相关部门在风险管控中应着重注意车体设备、供电类设备运用情况,及时发现风险和采取措施,避免风险之间发生耦合。     

基于模糊网络分析法的铁路物流金融风险研究

随着市场化改革的推进,铁路面临市场竞争压力日趋增大,物流金融所提供的增值服务,是铁路响应市场需求,提升竞争力的机遇。本文基于铁路物流金融业务特点,采用融合德尔菲法、模糊综合评价法和网络分析法于一体的模糊网络分析法,建立铁路物流金融风险评价指标体系,定量分析及评价铁路物流企业开展物流金融业务的风险。通过计算超矩阵的极限排序向量获得各风险因素指标权重,找出对铁路物流金融影响较大的关键风险因素并提出相应的管控措施,为铁路开展物流金融业务过程中的风险管理提供参考。     

基于Petri-马尔科夫链的中老铁路通关模式研究

中老铁路作为新开通的跨境运输铁路，为了提高通关效率，研究其通关模式十分重要。分析已有的通关模式，先确定中老铁路口岸站采用“一地两检”的模式，再以货运通关流程为例，构建Petri-马尔科夫链模型，通过建立基本Petri网、随机Petri网以及同构的有穷马尔可夫链，最后求解得到稳定概率及系统的性能参数，根据计算结果验证通关模式的合理性以及发现通关模式中的可优化环节。     

铁路开展联合货物运输的产品组织形式研究

本文基于铁路现有运能和运输组织水平,对铁路开展联合货物运输的产品及组织形式进行了研究。首先阐述了铁路开展联合货物运输的意义,基于运输产品的概念与设计原则,提出适合联合货物运输的铁路货运产品,并对其组织形式进行了分析研究。     

中铁科研院甘肃铁科监理的中老铁路福格村隧道出口与2~#斜井段顺利贯通

正2020年5月30日,由中铁科研院甘肃铁科监理的中老铁路福格村隧道出口至2~#斜井大里程段顺利贯通。福格村隧道全长8 936 m,属于中老铁路Ⅱ级风险隧道,隧道最大埋深高达740 m,全隧穿越7个地质断层,存在地下水丰富、顺层偏压、高地温、围岩破碎、突水突泥等地质难题,是中老铁路全线重难点控制性工程。     

城际铁路速度目标值选择研究

速度目标值是城际铁路建设最重要的技术标准之一，合理的速度目标值对城际铁路功能定位的实现具有重要意义。本文基于城际铁路速度目标值选择的影响因素，确定速度目标值的基本方案，即120km/h、160km/h、200km/h、250km/h、300km/h五个速度目标值方案。在此基础上，考虑不同影响因素的权重，应用模糊层次分析法，从经济性、实用性、便捷度、安全性等四个方面出发，得到不同条件下速度目标值取值情况。通过分析显示，选取的速度目标值是符合城际铁路发展现状的。     

铁路货物运输中石油资源运输能力探究

铁路货物运输资源属于国家公共资源,铁路货物运输资源的整合优化能产生巨大的社会效益。本文通过分析铁路运输资源整合优化,探究提高铁路货物运输的综合能力的策略,同时在铁路货物运输中,石油资源运输的特点,探究铁路石油运输对铁路货物运输的影响,从而达到资源的最优化运用。     

浅析铁路大宗货物定价因素

本文主要研究我国铁路的大宗货物运输定价问题。由于铁路运输企业目前处于垄断地位,长期以来企业将实现利益最大化为目标、短期以维持经营为底线进行定价,因此本文构建符合我国实际的铁路大宗货物运价模型,寻求合适定价区间,实现货运利润最大化。最后,本文以M铁路运输企业为例检验上述模型,求得运价下限与实际运价水平接近,该模型具有一定的应用价值。     

Logistics as a driving force for development under the Belt and Road Initiative – the Chinese model for developing countries

ABSTRACT

An important objective of “the Belt and Road Initiative” is to promote the economic growth of countries in the region. China’s successful development experience, proposed in the initial stage of reform, can be summarised as “Looking for development, building the highway first”. This study is the first to evaluate whether logistics infrastructure has indeed contributed to economic growth by employing an error correction model with panel data from 2003 to 2014. In addition, we compare the influence levels of different sectors of logistics infrastructure in different regions, i.e. developed and developing regions. We focus on developing regions as they represent good development experiences for developing countries in the Silk Road Economic Belt. For developing regions, we find that the most influential factors are telecommunication and airway transportation, which should be the foci of attention in order to promote economic growth and reduce inter-region economic inequalities. The research confirms that logistics is indeed a driving force for economic growth in China, and that the contributions of specific sectors can be a useful reference for developing countries to determine prioritisation of investment in different logistics sectors across regions.     

Resilience in transportation systems: a systematic review and future directions

ABSTRACT

The Belt and Road (B&R) initiative was introduced by the Chinese government to promote the worldwide economic development and multilateral cooperation between China and the associated countries. As a crucial part of global supply chains, transportation plays a key role to ensure the implementation of the B&R. Safety is one of the issues with great importance in transportation research. However, its foci have been expanded from traditional risk through security to resilience and sustainability. Resilience has attracted considerable interests from both researchers and practitioners across different research domains in recent years. Various studies have been conducted on transportation resilience from different perspectives. Consequently, different definitions have been developed to define and describe resilience. This paper presents a systematic review on transportation resilience with emphasis on its definitions, characteristics, and research methods applied in different transportation systems/contexts. It aims to figure out what transportation resilience is and what kind of essential characters it usually has. More importantly, research challenges are analysed and a future research agenda on the resilience of transportation systems is proposed. This paper will provide comprehensive insights into understanding the transportation resilience, as well as establish new horizons for relevant research topics within the context of the B&R.     

Miles,speed, and technology: Traffic safety under oligopolistic insurance

We study road safety when insurance companies have market power, and can influence drivers’ behavior via insurance premiums. We obtain first- and second-best premiums for different insurance market structures. The insurance program consists of an insurance premium, and marginal dependencies of that premium on speed and own safety technology choice of drivers. A private monopolist internalizes collision externalities up to the point where compensations to users’ benefit matches the full (intangible) costs; in oligopolistic markets, insurers do not fully internalize collision externalities. Analytical results demonstrate how insurance firms’ incentives to influence traffic safety coincide with or deviate from socially optimal incentives. Our results may be useful for design of pay-as-you-speed and alike insurances as well as policies related to driving safety.     

基于高速铁路常旅客计划的全流程智慧行李服务方案构建

随着"铁路畅行"和"客运提质计划"的提出,提供高质量、个性化的旅客服务成为高速铁路客运发展的关键方向。为打造全新旅客行李服务概念,基于"铁路畅行"会员常旅客计划,构建全流程、门到门智慧行李服务方案,从旅客需求角度出发,采取"人货分离"模式,突破传统站内行李服务的模式,拓宽业务场景,延长商业链,形成一套系统完整的方案。全流程智慧行李服务作为一项新的服务模式,为培育旅客需求,提高顾客粘合度,挖掘高铁行李服务的潜在市场,优化铁路盈利结构,加快构建铁路客运服务体系,提升铁路在运输市场的竞争力提供支持。     

Modeling and solving discrete network design problem with stochastic user equilibrium

In this paper, we address the discrete network design problem, which determines the addition of new roads to existing transportation network to optimize the transportation system performance. Road users are assumed to follow the traffic assignment principle of stochastic user equilibrium. A mixed‐integer nonlinear nonconvex problem is developed to model this discrete network design problem with stochastic user equilibrium. The original problem is relaxed into a convex mixed‐integer nonlinear program, whose solution provides a lower bound of the original problem. The relaxed problem is then embedded into two proposed global optimization solution algorithms to obtain the global optimal solution of the problem. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modeling risks and uncertainties in residents’ license choice behaviors under a vehicle restriction policy

Understanding residents’ perception and reaction to vehicle restriction policies is significant for transportation management. However, few studies have examined it from a behavioral and disaggregated perspective, particularly from people’s responses to uncertainties in choices, and their consequent behaviors under potential risks. This paper proposes a multi-level nested logit method to model sequential choice behaviors considering uncertainties under a vehicle license restriction policy. Prospect theory is applied, where a novel reference point is proposed based on instances of ‘whether a risk happens’ rather than a hard number which is difficult to obtain in reality. A case study in Guangzhou, China is presented, where a vehicle restriction policy has been applied for three years. Residents’ attitudes and preferences under uncertainties and different risks are revealed, and these factors are significant in predicting people’s future decisions while policy changes.     

Assessing the technical efficiency, service effectiveness, and technical effectiveness of the world’s railways through NDEA analysis

This paper presents an approach to include both the unstorable feature of transportation service and the technological differences within railway companies in efficiency and effectiveness measurements. We explore efficiency and effectiveness for a group of 40 global railways in the year 2002, using traditional data development analysis (TDEA) and network data development analysis (NDEA). Comparing the results obtained from the NDEA model with those from the TDEA indicate that performance measures are quite different in terms of the magnitude, and even using different DEA type models to evaluate railway system performance does not distort the ranking of their performance. We also analyze the inter-related effects among three performance measures, finding that transportation service characteristics have positive effects on the evaluation of performance. Generally speaking, the NDEA model provides deeper insight regarding the sources of inefficiency and process-specific guidance to railway managers so as to help them improve their railway’s performance.     

Competitiveness prioritisation of container ports in Asia under the background of China’s Belt and Road initiative

ABSTRACT

The understanding of the competitiveness of different ports under the background of China’s “Belt and Road Initiative” (BRI) is critical for drafting appropriate plans and taking suitable actions to select the best port in the logistics supply chains. A novel Multi-Attribute Decision Analysis (MADA) was proposed for the evaluation of port competitiveness. In the developed MADA method, the interval Analytic Hierarchy Process and the projection method was combined for the evaluation of port competitiveness. Three container ports in Asia including Shanghai, Hong Kong, and Singapore were studied under the background of China’s BRI. The results demonstrate that the port of Singapore is the most competitive at the initial stage of China’s BRI, followed by Hong Kong and Shanghai in the descending order. The results were validated by sum weighted method and Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution method, and sensitivity analysis was also carried out. The competitiveness of the three ports in the next ten years were also studied with the consideration of the influences of China’s BRI, and the results reveal that Shanghai port can even exceed Hong Kong port and Singapore port if it can effectively take the advantage s of China’s BRI.     

广西沿海铁路建设双层集装箱通道必要性研究

广西沿海铁路作为大西南的重要出海通道，是防城、钦州、北海等重要沿海港口主要的后方集疏运干线。文章提出了广西沿海铁路开行双层集装箱列车的意义，预测了广西沿海铁路集装箱的运量，从经济与通过能力方面分析了广西沿海铁路开行双层集装箱列车的必要性。     

道路危险货物运输安全现状分析及对策研究

道路运输是危险货物运输的重要环节,也是与安全关系最大的环节,危险货物运输安全事故大多发生在道路运输这一环节上。从当前我国危险品运输安全现状着手,着力分析了影响我国危险品运输安全的因素,并针对这些因素提出相关对策,包括提高从业人员队伍素质、提高行业准入门槛、建立危险货物运输相关管理部门协调机制等。