The benefits to the public of vehicle legislation — Attempts to measure the unmeasurable

Although inevitably there are grey areas, a distinction may be drawn between environmental disbenefits arising from vehicles which cause annoyance, such as noise, or loss of peace and quiet, vibration, visual intrusion, severance, and those which endanger life and limb. Legislation implemented to reduce either category will inevitably generate costs.It is suggested that in evaluating legislation relating to environmental nuisance, attempts should be made carefully to measure the benefits, while for legislation when life and limb is involved a cost-effectiveness approach should be adopted. Methods currently available to measure environmental nuisance arising from vehicles, for example opinion surveys, observing the effect of changes in some independent indicator, and simulation exercises are critically examined. Using evidence from the Urban Motorway Committee Reports, Noise Advisory Council, Transport and Road Research Laboratory surveys on the effect of traffic in selected High Streets, and the Realistic Environment Assessment Laboratory, Social and Community Planning Research ping-pong technique, studies of house price differentials, and estimates of willingness-to-pay for exclusion facilities, an attempt is made to highlight the dilemma that while benefits of environmental nuisance legislation should be carefully weighed against the anti-pollution costs, techniques currently available for measuring such benefits are very underdeveloped.Paradoxically there is a far more clear-cut procedure for valuing benefits of policies affecting life and limb. Official accident evaluation policy in the U.K. is described, and legislation affecting life and limb is examined.Finally, difficulties of effectively enforcing legislation of both environmental nuisance and life and limb categories are illustrated.     

Allocation of funds to public transport investment and operating support

This paper reviews the present levels of operating support to, and public investment in, public transport systems in Western Europe. All internal bus, tram and rail services are included, and estimates made for total support in Britain, Sweden, West Germany, the Netherlands and France. To make comparison meaningful, these are shown in relation to GDP and traffic carried. Support levels in Britain are below average, but by no means the lowest as sometimes assumed. Reasons for providing support are considered, including existence of financial burdens arising historically, assistance to particular groups of users, problems in price discrimination and inability of other modes' charges to reflect costs. The extent to which support payments may merely subsidise inefficiency is outlined. A distinction is drawn between productive efficiency, i.e. the resources used to provide a specified level of service and fare, and allocative efficiency, i.e. the extent to which resources are allocated so as to maximise traffic, etc. The extent for reducing support yet retaining the present general level of service and fare is considered.Means of raising finance for support are outlined, including relative roles of central and local government. The scope of local taxes being raised to meet local objectives is considered, notably in the French versement transport: In conclusion, it is suggested that trunk inter-city services should cover all costs from fares, by a discriminatory pricing policy, but central government provide a basic support level for rural areas. In urban areas, practical limits exist to price discrimination, and the best policy may be collective purchase of facilities through a local tax.     

Wanting to travel,more or less: Exploring the determinants of the deficit and surfeit of personal travel

This study investigates the determinants of peoples desire to increase or decrease the amount of travel they do. We use data from 1,357 working commuters, residents of three different neighborhoods in the San Francisco Bay Area, California. The dependent variables are indicators of Relative Desired Mobility for ten categories of travel (short- and long-distance overall and by several mode- and purpose-specific categories). These variables are measured on a five-point ordinal scale ranging from much less to much more, through which the respondents indicated the amount of travel they want to do (in the category in question) compared to what they are doing now. Censored ordered probit models were developed for these variables, with explanatory variables including general travel attitudes, specific liking for travel in each of the same separate categories, objective and subjective measures of the amount currently traveled in each category, and personality, lifestyle, and socio-demographic characteristics. The results support the hypotheses that the liking for travel has a strong positive impact, and subjective qualitative assessments of mobility have a strong negative impact, on the desire to increase ones travel. Finally, a number of general types of effects on Relative Desired Mobility were identified, among them complementarity and substitution effects. The results of this study can provide policy makers and researchers with new and valuable insight into key principles that affect individual travel demand.     

Modelling car availability,modal split and trip distribution by Monte-Carlo simulation: A short way to integrated models

The model used a Monte-Carlo algorithm to simulate modal split and trip distribution as an interconnected decision process at the individual level. Using census data, the individuals of a planning region are classified into situation groups, which represent significantly different decision situations with respect to socio-demographic position and territorial location. According to the theoretical framework, which emphasises mobility constraints instead of preferences, household structure and sex (time budget and car availability constraints) and work place characteristics (location constraints) are the key variables. For each situation group, decision profiles are empirically determined; these describe car availability, travel time constraints and work place distribution. Modal split and trip distribution are simulated as an interconnected individual decision process, which is stochastically determined by the location of the individual and the decision profile of his situation group.The algorithm is very sensitive and flexible and extremely well suited to electronic processing. An extended and modified version is currently being used in the preparation of regional transporation plans for several German city regions.     

The state-of-the-art of “comprehensive” planning

Planning occurs as a part of governmental operations wherever decision-making happens. For US metropolitan areas, the locuses of decision-making are multiple, ranging in scale from very small jurisdictions up through the hierarchy to state and federal levels, and in function from general governments to many special-purpose agencies — transportation, health care, education, etc. Almost all might affect or be affected by urban transportation decisions and actions. Since no one of these units of government is comprehensive in authority and activity, there is no single, centralized planning operation that is truly comprehensive. Pluralistic planning is increasingly trying to foresee and to accommodate the interactions among the various levels and functions. Instead of fragmenting, with the fragments pulled apart and insulated, we need to move toward partitioning, not merely to delimit boundaries but also to identify interfaces. This movement is hampered by the differentials in the development of the state-of-the-art of the technical planning process now used by the several levels and functional units of government. This is most advanced, and most effective, for small, homogeneous suburban jurisdictions primarily concerned with guiding and controlling physical development; it is in disarray in central cities trying to cope with social and economic problems as well as with physical deterioration; at the metropolitan scale it is highly developed technically but not very influential. There is a trend toward a network of planning activities that recognizes and facilitates interrelationships and interactions, both vertically among functional boundaries and horizontally across geographical-scale distinctions — a trend toward the comprehensive —but we have a very long way to go.Paper prepared for the Highway Research Board Conference on Organization for Continuing Urban Transportation Planning.     

Characterization and evolution of spatial density patterns in urban areas

This paper examines the spatial patterns of population density, household automobile ownership and other socio-demographic variables that affect urban travel, as a function of distance from the central city core. Spatial density functions provide a useful characterization of urban structure, and of its evolution when taken at different time intervals. Analysis of the data from four case cities (Austin, Atlanta, Dallas, Phoenix) for 1960, 1970 and 1980 reveals continuing overall dispersion away from the traditional central core, accompanied by the densification of formerly low-density suburbs. This presents implications for high congestion levels in the densifying suburban communities, comparable to those typically associated with the CBD. In addition, the analysis has captured the continuing growth of average household automobile ownership and revealed a distinct spatial pattern that seems to be robust across the case areas considered, as well as within radial corridors in the one case that was so analyzed (Austin).List of symbols Y gross population density in census tractt - X _t distance in miles from the center of tract to the CBD - parameter representing the central business district density - y density gradient parameter - X₀, X₁, X2, and X3 locations of the knots in a three segment division of the x-axis - D_i dummy variable defined for thei-th segment - ₁ normally distributed disturbance term,a _i,b _i,c _i,d _i,i = 1, 2, 3 — parameters to be estimated - A _t area of census tractt     

Disaggregate simultaneous urban travel demand models: A brief introduction

This paper is intended to provide a general background to the two following papers, A Simultaneous Destination and Mode Choice Model for Shopping Trips and Some Estimation Results of a Simultaneous Model of Auto Ownership and Mode Choice to Work. Some of the deficiences of the conventional urban transport modelling system are reviewed and a case is made for the use of simultaneous models estimated with disaggregate data.     

Car-free city centres

In a car-free city centre car traffic is limited by an area-wide ban to its functionally necessary share. This usually includes delivery and service vehicles and residents' cars. The lock-out of unnecessary car traffic must not be an isolated measure, but part of a pulland-push approach. The most important supporting measure concerns the provision of attractive public transport services. Case studies from Bologna, Lubeck, Aachen, York, and Nuremburg are reported.     

Approaches to the future in U.S. urban transportation planning

In appreciation of the fact that longer-run considerations are particularly important in the development of urban transportation, during the past three decades American transportation planning has been employing increasingly sophisticated approaches to the future. This article discusses four phases in this evolution, with a given focus dominant in each period.During the first period, following on the initial provision of federal government funds for the construction of highways in and around cities, major reliance was based on simple projections of travel demand in metropolitan regions, based mainly on current patterns.This was followed by an approach which focused on an analysis of impacts on transportation systems of projected land uses, based on forecasts of population and economic growth for a target year, on the assumption that facilities were to be provided to move all vehicles that wanted to move from here to there at least possible cost.The third period was characterized by an increasing consciousness of the value of articulating national and local goals in making transportation decisions, going beyond narrow economic and mobility objectives, and including the notion of trade-offs among goals.The most recent period discussed is one characterized by rising interest in futures studies, using methods such as Delphi and cross-impact analysis and approaches such as alternative futures, as well as a search for achieving flexibility in transportation development and for means of limiting resource commitment in the face of the uncertainties of the future (keeping options open).It is pointed out that we still have a long way to go in learning how to evolve feasible images of the future, with associated explicit urban life-style goals, that come to grips with societal variety and conflicting interests.     

The design of bus route systems — An interactive location-allocation approach

An interactive modelling approach is developed to solve the practical problem of bus route network design. Possible bus routes are identified with facilities which can be located. Zones or pairs of zones in the urban area are identified with customers who will be allocated to the established facilities. It is shown that the classical Set Covering Problem is useful under the assumption of fixed demand; the Simple Plant Location Problem is effective under the assumption of demand which is sensitive to the level of bus service provided.     

Teleworking in the Netherlands: an evaluation of changes in travel behaviour

This article describes the first experiment on teleworking in the Netherlands, and presents the results of an analysis of the impact of teleworking on the travel behaviour of the participants in the experiment and their household members. It was concluded that teleworking has resulted in a significant decrease in the total number of trips by teleworkers (–17%). Peak-hour traffic by car has been reduced even more (–26%). An unexpected result was that the household members of the teleworkers also appeared to travel less than before the experiment.     

An assignment model with modified Logit,which obviates enumeration and overlapping problems

One of the main components of stochastic assignment models is the route choice model solved with implicit or explicit path enumeration algorithms. Such models are used both for congested networks within equilibrium or dynamic models and for non-congested networks within static or pseudo-dynamic network loading models. This paper proposes a C-Logit model specification within a Dial algorithm structure for the implicit assignment of network flows. The model and its solution algorithm, called D-C-Logit, combine several positive features found in the literature for choice set generation and choices from a given choice set: generation of a set of alternatives with a selective approach; calculation of the path choice probability in a closed form; simulation of the overlapping effect among alternative paths; computation of just one tree for each origin avoiding explicit path enumeration.This paper has two main objectives: the proposition of a Dial-like algorithm to solve a C-Logit assignment model and application of the algorithm to different networks in order to demonstrate certain properties.     

Sample size and grouping in the estimation of disaggregate models—A simple case

Using a very simple form of disaggregate model for household car ownership, it appears that two widely held beliefs about disaggregate modelling — that analysis should always be carried out on individual households, and that sample sizes of 500 to 1000 are generally sufficient - are not necessarily valid. Though the results may not be generalizable to the full class of problems to which disaggregate analysis addresses itself, it does seem that more attention needs to be given to the questions of sample size and grouping.In addition, the standard test of goodness of fit (the so-called rho-squared test) is shown to be extremely weak. A far stronger and to some extent complementary, test is to compare the log-likelihood value given by the model with that on the basis of the full or saturated model — a test which has recently been clearly presented by a number of writers in the statistical literature. When using dummy variables, it is important that pair-wise tests on coefficients relating to various levels of the same attribute should be carried out, as well as the standard test assessing difference from zero.These points are illustrated by a number of simple examples.The abstract of this paper appears on p. 369.     

What is induced traffic?

Investment in new or up-graded roads both raises the level and alters the pattern of accessibility over the whole area served by the road system. Vehicle-users will perceive the opportunities that this increased accessibility offers and respond in various ways, most of which can lead to more rather than less travel on the system. To the extent that travel increases overall, it can be said to have been induced by the road-improvement. Conversely, congestion as it spreads on the network will deter some travel and can be said to have a traffic suppression effect.The purpose of this first paper is to spell out, as clearly as possible, what is meant by induced traffic and to relate its various components to the full range of behavioural responses by travellers. In doing so, it draws upon the recently published (December 1994) report by the Standing Advisory Committee on Trunk Road Assessment (SACTRA) and response by the UK Government. The paper concludes with some of the implications of induced/suppressed traffic for current methods of forecasting and evaluation of road investment, which are covered in more detail by subsequent authors.     

Development of multimodal performance measures for transit systems in New York State

The New York State Department of Transportation was required to certify as to the economy and efficiency of transit operators participating in the State's public transportation operating assistance program. This paper describes the efforts undertaken to meet this mandate.Discussed are past efforts to link performance measures to funding programs; reasons for modifying measures which had been used in previous efforts; and some of the problems and issues raised by the use of such criteria. The paper identifies 15 performance measures being used by New York State in its evaluations, the actual ranges encountered in the transit operations being funded through the state program, and tentative acceptable and desirable levels of those measures which the Transportation Department is using in its evaluation. The role these measures play in the state's operating assistance policy decision process is also described.     

Gateway diversity and competition in international air transportation

Because of the existence of limited designation gateways, i.e., gateways for international air travel where entry by U.S. flag carriers is limited (in many cases to only one carrier), the U.S. Civil Aeronautics Board (CAB) has announced a policy of gateway competition. This policy seeks to maximize inter-gateway competition as a goal of the carrier selection process. The paper reviews the rationale and history of this policy and the economic principles of gateway competition. After addressing exceptions where gateway competition does not enhance competitive goals, the issue of how to enforce the credibility of the bidding process in route awards is addressed. The paper concludes by identifying circumstances where competitive objectives are not advanced through application of the principle gateway competition.     

Model development for metro station access mode choice

This paper analyses the behaviour of metro users in choosing their access mode to a metro station. Multinominal logit models with satisfactory predictive power were developed for access mode choice on the basis of data collected by interviewing metro users at existing metro stations. A population segmentation approach was adopted and models referring to individuals having the same set of alternative access modes were developed. Trip purpose was found to have significant effects on the access mode choice. Thus, for each population segment different models are proposed for work and education and other trip purpose. Various conclusions concerning the importance of the variables included in the proposed models were drawn through comparisons carried out across the models.     

Trucking industry demand for urban shared use freight terminals

The issue of shared use urban freight facilities first received attention during the 1970s when it was observed that, while inter-urban freight movements were becoming increasingly efficient, there were significant diseconomies in the movement of freight via truck within urban areas. Early research suggested that shared urban freight facilities should be constructed so that trucking companies could consolidate smaller shipments into larger ones. In the past few years, the concept of Urban Ports has gained increasing attention, not just for carriers who need to load and unload freight, but to provide a place near the urban center for truckers to wait out peak traffic periods. In this paper, using recently developed survey data, we examine trucking company interest in such facilities by examining the results of an ordered probit demand model.     

Joint development at transit stations in the United States

Joint development, as the term is generally used in connection with transit systems in the United States, is real estate development that is closely linked to public transportation services and station facilities, and takes advantage of the market and locational advantages provided by them. Research conducted by LEK Associates for the Urban Mass Transportation Administration (UMTA) suggests that, in addition to helping shape urban growth and land development, joint development is also a surprisingly effective means of increasing transit system ridership and farebox revenues, as well as a source of increasingly significant revenues from the sale or lease of air rights.The completion of nine joint development projects in as many different cities, started under the former Urban Initiatives Program, for example, net additional annual ridership might reach 12000000 one-way trips. Net additional annual farebox revenues might reach over $9000000. This added revenue would be sufficient to repay the $62 million combined UMTA/transit operator investment in the nine projects, exclusive of the costs of the basic transit system improvements around which the projects are planned, in less than six years.Among transit authority-administered joint development programs examined in a separate study, the Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority (WMATA) has had the most success in generating significant value capture income. For example, the cumulative revenue realized by WMATA from just six joint development projects in the Washington, DC region, through September 1983 exceeded $ 6.9 million. Projections through fiscal year 1986 indicate cumulative revenues approximating $ 28 million will be received from developer leases.     

An approach to the evaluation of changes in travel unreliability: A “Safety margin” hypothesis

Even where unreliability has been recognised as a significant component in the generalised cost of trip-making, few attempts have been made to quantify it in the evaluation of transport improvements. This neglect is perhaps explained by the difficulty of observing a suitable trade-off situation in which transport users can trade money directly or indirectly for improved reliability of their transport modes.This article investigates the characteristics of a possible trade-off which might be made by commuters — the allowance of extra time for travelling in order to avoid unpredictable lateness at destination. The form of the costs of a response to unreliability of this nature is considered within a more general framework of the allocation of time under uncertainty or risk conditions.Certain other approaches to the evaluation of travel unreliability are reviewed and a brief outline is given to a current research project which attempts to test the applicability of the safety margin in London commuters' timing of the trips that they take to work.Any views expressed in this article are those of the author and are not necessarily those of the Department of the Environment.