The benefits to the public of vehicle legislation — Attempts to measure the unmeasurable

Although inevitably there are grey areas, a distinction may be drawn between environmental disbenefits arising from vehicles which cause annoyance, such as noise, or loss of peace and quiet, vibration, visual intrusion, severance, and those which endanger life and limb. Legislation implemented to reduce either category will inevitably generate costs.It is suggested that in evaluating legislation relating to environmental nuisance, attempts should be made carefully to measure the benefits, while for legislation when life and limb is involved a cost-effectiveness approach should be adopted. Methods currently available to measure environmental nuisance arising from vehicles, for example opinion surveys, observing the effect of changes in some independent indicator, and simulation exercises are critically examined. Using evidence from the Urban Motorway Committee Reports, Noise Advisory Council, Transport and Road Research Laboratory surveys on the effect of traffic in selected High Streets, and the Realistic Environment Assessment Laboratory, Social and Community Planning Research ping-pong technique, studies of house price differentials, and estimates of willingness-to-pay for exclusion facilities, an attempt is made to highlight the dilemma that while benefits of environmental nuisance legislation should be carefully weighed against the anti-pollution costs, techniques currently available for measuring such benefits are very underdeveloped.Paradoxically there is a far more clear-cut procedure for valuing benefits of policies affecting life and limb. Official accident evaluation policy in the U.K. is described, and legislation affecting life and limb is examined.Finally, difficulties of effectively enforcing legislation of both environmental nuisance and life and limb categories are illustrated.     

The state-of-the-art of “comprehensive” planning

Planning occurs as a part of governmental operations wherever decision-making happens. For US metropolitan areas, the locuses of decision-making are multiple, ranging in scale from very small jurisdictions up through the hierarchy to state and federal levels, and in function from general governments to many special-purpose agencies — transportation, health care, education, etc. Almost all might affect or be affected by urban transportation decisions and actions. Since no one of these units of government is comprehensive in authority and activity, there is no single, centralized planning operation that is truly comprehensive. Pluralistic planning is increasingly trying to foresee and to accommodate the interactions among the various levels and functions. Instead of fragmenting, with the fragments pulled apart and insulated, we need to move toward partitioning, not merely to delimit boundaries but also to identify interfaces. This movement is hampered by the differentials in the development of the state-of-the-art of the technical planning process now used by the several levels and functional units of government. This is most advanced, and most effective, for small, homogeneous suburban jurisdictions primarily concerned with guiding and controlling physical development; it is in disarray in central cities trying to cope with social and economic problems as well as with physical deterioration; at the metropolitan scale it is highly developed technically but not very influential. There is a trend toward a network of planning activities that recognizes and facilitates interrelationships and interactions, both vertically among functional boundaries and horizontally across geographical-scale distinctions — a trend toward the comprehensive —but we have a very long way to go.Paper prepared for the Highway Research Board Conference on Organization for Continuing Urban Transportation Planning.     

Disaggregate simultaneous urban travel demand models: A brief introduction

This paper is intended to provide a general background to the two following papers, A Simultaneous Destination and Mode Choice Model for Shopping Trips and Some Estimation Results of a Simultaneous Model of Auto Ownership and Mode Choice to Work. Some of the deficiences of the conventional urban transport modelling system are reviewed and a case is made for the use of simultaneous models estimated with disaggregate data.     

The design of bus route systems — An interactive location-allocation approach

An interactive modelling approach is developed to solve the practical problem of bus route network design. Possible bus routes are identified with facilities which can be located. Zones or pairs of zones in the urban area are identified with customers who will be allocated to the established facilities. It is shown that the classical Set Covering Problem is useful under the assumption of fixed demand; the Simple Plant Location Problem is effective under the assumption of demand which is sensitive to the level of bus service provided.     

Allocation of funds to public transport investment and operating support

This paper reviews the present levels of operating support to, and public investment in, public transport systems in Western Europe. All internal bus, tram and rail services are included, and estimates made for total support in Britain, Sweden, West Germany, the Netherlands and France. To make comparison meaningful, these are shown in relation to GDP and traffic carried. Support levels in Britain are below average, but by no means the lowest as sometimes assumed. Reasons for providing support are considered, including existence of financial burdens arising historically, assistance to particular groups of users, problems in price discrimination and inability of other modes' charges to reflect costs. The extent to which support payments may merely subsidise inefficiency is outlined. A distinction is drawn between productive efficiency, i.e. the resources used to provide a specified level of service and fare, and allocative efficiency, i.e. the extent to which resources are allocated so as to maximise traffic, etc. The extent for reducing support yet retaining the present general level of service and fare is considered.Means of raising finance for support are outlined, including relative roles of central and local government. The scope of local taxes being raised to meet local objectives is considered, notably in the French versement transport: In conclusion, it is suggested that trunk inter-city services should cover all costs from fares, by a discriminatory pricing policy, but central government provide a basic support level for rural areas. In urban areas, practical limits exist to price discrimination, and the best policy may be collective purchase of facilities through a local tax.     

Teleworking in the Netherlands: an evaluation of changes in travel behaviour

This article describes the first experiment on teleworking in the Netherlands, and presents the results of an analysis of the impact of teleworking on the travel behaviour of the participants in the experiment and their household members. It was concluded that teleworking has resulted in a significant decrease in the total number of trips by teleworkers (–17%). Peak-hour traffic by car has been reduced even more (–26%). An unexpected result was that the household members of the teleworkers also appeared to travel less than before the experiment.     

New methods of controlling vehicle ownership and usage in Singapore

Over the years Singapore has introduced several fiscal measures aimed at restraining car ownership and usage and thus preventing traffic congestion. Two new methods have recently been added: the Vehicle Quota System which limits the number of new vehicles registered each month and the Weekend Car Scheme which allows cars to be registered for use during off-peak hours only, with substantial financial savings to the owners. The Vehicle Quota System involves monthly public tenders for Certificates of Entitlement needed to register new cars. Over the past 30 months the cost of COE's has been increasing and now constitutes between 12% and 27% of the on-the-road price of a new car. The fluctuations in the COE premiums for different vehicle categories are presented and analysed. The initial problems and the recent modifications made as a result of public pressure are also described. It seems that the increases in COE premiums are likely to continue under strong economic growth conditions as the demand for cars is more income-elastic than price-elastic.     

Development of multimodal performance measures for transit systems in New York State

The New York State Department of Transportation was required to certify as to the economy and efficiency of transit operators participating in the State's public transportation operating assistance program. This paper describes the efforts undertaken to meet this mandate.Discussed are past efforts to link performance measures to funding programs; reasons for modifying measures which had been used in previous efforts; and some of the problems and issues raised by the use of such criteria. The paper identifies 15 performance measures being used by New York State in its evaluations, the actual ranges encountered in the transit operations being funded through the state program, and tentative acceptable and desirable levels of those measures which the Transportation Department is using in its evaluation. The role these measures play in the state's operating assistance policy decision process is also described.     

An approach to the evaluation of changes in travel unreliability: A “Safety margin” hypothesis

Even where unreliability has been recognised as a significant component in the generalised cost of trip-making, few attempts have been made to quantify it in the evaluation of transport improvements. This neglect is perhaps explained by the difficulty of observing a suitable trade-off situation in which transport users can trade money directly or indirectly for improved reliability of their transport modes.This article investigates the characteristics of a possible trade-off which might be made by commuters — the allowance of extra time for travelling in order to avoid unpredictable lateness at destination. The form of the costs of a response to unreliability of this nature is considered within a more general framework of the allocation of time under uncertainty or risk conditions.Certain other approaches to the evaluation of travel unreliability are reviewed and a brief outline is given to a current research project which attempts to test the applicability of the safety margin in London commuters' timing of the trips that they take to work.Any views expressed in this article are those of the author and are not necessarily those of the Department of the Environment.     

Indicators of urban accessibility: Theory and application

The concept of accessibility and its related indicators have been in use for a long time, with still diverging interpretations of their significance and formulation. In this paper, a review is made of various existing theoretical bases, with special emphasis on recent behavioural approaches. It is suggested that this theoretical framework now allows a better appraisal of accessibility indicators and precise recommendations are proposed for their practical formulation and use. Various examples are given, especially for disaggregate analysis where a calculation for a given person is proposed instead of the conventional calculation .by a given mode. Finally, the relations between accessibility and trip rate are examined; from a study made in French cities, it is suggested that accessibility is a powerful determinant of trip rate.     

Model development for metro station access mode choice

This paper analyses the behaviour of metro users in choosing their access mode to a metro station. Multinominal logit models with satisfactory predictive power were developed for access mode choice on the basis of data collected by interviewing metro users at existing metro stations. A population segmentation approach was adopted and models referring to individuals having the same set of alternative access modes were developed. Trip purpose was found to have significant effects on the access mode choice. Thus, for each population segment different models are proposed for work and education and other trip purpose. Various conclusions concerning the importance of the variables included in the proposed models were drawn through comparisons carried out across the models.     

Modelling car availability,modal split and trip distribution by Monte-Carlo simulation: A short way to integrated models

The model used a Monte-Carlo algorithm to simulate modal split and trip distribution as an interconnected decision process at the individual level. Using census data, the individuals of a planning region are classified into situation groups, which represent significantly different decision situations with respect to socio-demographic position and territorial location. According to the theoretical framework, which emphasises mobility constraints instead of preferences, household structure and sex (time budget and car availability constraints) and work place characteristics (location constraints) are the key variables. For each situation group, decision profiles are empirically determined; these describe car availability, travel time constraints and work place distribution. Modal split and trip distribution are simulated as an interconnected individual decision process, which is stochastically determined by the location of the individual and the decision profile of his situation group.The algorithm is very sensitive and flexible and extremely well suited to electronic processing. An extended and modified version is currently being used in the preparation of regional transporation plans for several German city regions.     

Modeling intrametropolitan industrial location realistically

This paper compares intrametropolitan industrial location models to the process of intrametropolitan industrial location as described in the real estate and urban economic literature. It identifies seven areas where industrial location models are at odds with reality, and suggests ways to make them realistic. Specifically, it makes a case for microanalytic/stochastic/recursive/dynamic/economic industrial location models. It goes on to describe an operational model that is realistic in most respects.     

Sample size and grouping in the estimation of disaggregate models—A simple case

Using a very simple form of disaggregate model for household car ownership, it appears that two widely held beliefs about disaggregate modelling — that analysis should always be carried out on individual households, and that sample sizes of 500 to 1000 are generally sufficient - are not necessarily valid. Though the results may not be generalizable to the full class of problems to which disaggregate analysis addresses itself, it does seem that more attention needs to be given to the questions of sample size and grouping.In addition, the standard test of goodness of fit (the so-called rho-squared test) is shown to be extremely weak. A far stronger and to some extent complementary, test is to compare the log-likelihood value given by the model with that on the basis of the full or saturated model — a test which has recently been clearly presented by a number of writers in the statistical literature. When using dummy variables, it is important that pair-wise tests on coefficients relating to various levels of the same attribute should be carried out, as well as the standard test assessing difference from zero.These points are illustrated by a number of simple examples.The abstract of this paper appears on p. 369.     

Characterization and evolution of spatial density patterns in urban areas

This paper examines the spatial patterns of population density, household automobile ownership and other socio-demographic variables that affect urban travel, as a function of distance from the central city core. Spatial density functions provide a useful characterization of urban structure, and of its evolution when taken at different time intervals. Analysis of the data from four case cities (Austin, Atlanta, Dallas, Phoenix) for 1960, 1970 and 1980 reveals continuing overall dispersion away from the traditional central core, accompanied by the densification of formerly low-density suburbs. This presents implications for high congestion levels in the densifying suburban communities, comparable to those typically associated with the CBD. In addition, the analysis has captured the continuing growth of average household automobile ownership and revealed a distinct spatial pattern that seems to be robust across the case areas considered, as well as within radial corridors in the one case that was so analyzed (Austin).List of symbols Y gross population density in census tractt - X _t distance in miles from the center of tract to the CBD - parameter representing the central business district density - y density gradient parameter - X₀, X₁, X2, and X3 locations of the knots in a three segment division of the x-axis - D_i dummy variable defined for thei-th segment - ₁ normally distributed disturbance term,a _i,b _i,c _i,d _i,i = 1, 2, 3 — parameters to be estimated - A _t area of census tractt     

Car-free city centres

In a car-free city centre car traffic is limited by an area-wide ban to its functionally necessary share. This usually includes delivery and service vehicles and residents' cars. The lock-out of unnecessary car traffic must not be an isolated measure, but part of a pulland-push approach. The most important supporting measure concerns the provision of attractive public transport services. Case studies from Bologna, Lubeck, Aachen, York, and Nuremburg are reported.     

Wanting to travel,more or less: Exploring the determinants of the deficit and surfeit of personal travel

This study investigates the determinants of peoples desire to increase or decrease the amount of travel they do. We use data from 1,357 working commuters, residents of three different neighborhoods in the San Francisco Bay Area, California. The dependent variables are indicators of Relative Desired Mobility for ten categories of travel (short- and long-distance overall and by several mode- and purpose-specific categories). These variables are measured on a five-point ordinal scale ranging from much less to much more, through which the respondents indicated the amount of travel they want to do (in the category in question) compared to what they are doing now. Censored ordered probit models were developed for these variables, with explanatory variables including general travel attitudes, specific liking for travel in each of the same separate categories, objective and subjective measures of the amount currently traveled in each category, and personality, lifestyle, and socio-demographic characteristics. The results support the hypotheses that the liking for travel has a strong positive impact, and subjective qualitative assessments of mobility have a strong negative impact, on the desire to increase ones travel. Finally, a number of general types of effects on Relative Desired Mobility were identified, among them complementarity and substitution effects. The results of this study can provide policy makers and researchers with new and valuable insight into key principles that affect individual travel demand.     

Suburban congestion: Recommendations for transportation and land use responses

Transportation congestion is reaching intolerable levels in many urban and suburban areas in the US. Reliance upon traditional responses, such as transit and new highway capacity, is not working — especially in suburban areas. Although methods for dealing with suburban congestion are often different, there are a number of common features that must be considered in developing short term as well as more permanent and long lasting solutions. In proposing short term solutions, a Menu of Actions is described. It includes transportation actions (the traditional transit and transportation management options) where there are opportunities for getting more out of the existing systems; land use/growth management actions which will result in more rational land use-transportation interactions; financial incentives, to encourage or discourage appropriate actions; more comprehensive and systematic land use and transportation planning; and the organizational and institutional actions required to implement rational solutions.While the Manu of Actions provides a broad array of possible actions to provide relief in the short run, over time the growth in traffic is likely to outpace their effectiveness. Consequently, longer term and often more difficult solutions must be considered and implemented as appropriate. They could include changes in land use development and land use management policies; changes in lifestyle and business practices; improvements through technological innovation; changes in the traditional ways of providing transportation services; and greatly expanded research and development.     

The Market for Transportation-Land Use Integration: Do Developers Want Smarter Growth than Regulations Allow?

Transportation and land use research of the past decade has focused in large part on the question of whether manipulating land uses in the direction of smart growth alternatives can reduce vehicle miles traveled (VMT) or otherwise improve travel behavior. Yet the notion of manipulating land uses implies that the alternative is somehow self-organized or market-based. This view appears to underestimate the extent to which current planning interventions in the United States – largely focused on lowering development densities, mandating ample road and parking designs, and separating land uses – impose an auto-oriented template on most new development. Rather than a market failure, the paucity of smart growth alternatives may be a planning failure – the result of municipal regulatory exclusion. This problem definition would shift the burden of proof for policy reform, as uncertainty in travel-behavior benefits would hardly justify the continuation of exclusionary regulations. If municipal regulations in fact constrain alternatives to low-density, auto-oriented development, one would expect developers to perceive unsatisfied market interest in such development. This article studies, through a national survey (676 respondents), US developers' perceptions of the market for pedestrian-and transit-oriented development forms. Overall, respondents perceive considerable market interest in alternative development forms, but believe that there is inadequate supply of such alternatives relative to market demand. Developer-respondents attribute this gap between supply and demand principally to local government regulation. When asked how the relaxation of these regulations would affect their product, majorities of developers indicated that such liberalization would lead them to develop in a denser and more mixed-use fashion, particularly in close-in suburban locales. Results are interpreted in favor land-policy reform based on the expansion of choice in transportation and land use. This view contrasts with a more prevalent approach which conditions policy interventions on scientific evidence of travel-behavior modification.     

Regional impacts of new transport infrastructure: a multisectoral potentials approach

This is the second of two background papers sponsored for the Symposium by the Administrative Commission for the north of the Netherlands. Its purpose is to provide an indication of the effects of the proposed high speed rail line between Amsterdam, Groningen and Hamburg on employment in the corridor. The authors first review the techniques of forecasting these effects discussed in the literature. The potentials approach is adopted for their analysis, the mathematics and underlying assumptions of which are presented. Finally, this model is run to provide an estimate of the impact on regional employment of three variants of the proposed rail line.