A mesoscopic model for large-scale simulation of pedestrian dynamics

A mesoscopic pedestrian model is proposed, considering pedestrians as individuals and describing their movement by means of aggregate density-flow relationships. The model builds on a stochastic process, describing transition rates among adjacent sites on a lattice. Each lattice can contain several pedestrians. The approach is minimal and fast to simulate, and, by construction, capable of capturing population heterogeneity as well as variability in walking behaviour and en-route path choice. The model is more efficient than microscopic models, and potentially more accurate than macroscopic ones. We calibrate and validate the model using real data and carry out several numerical experiments to present its key properties and possible applications for simulation of large-scale scenarios.     

A mixed logit model for predicting exit choice during building evacuations

Knowledge on human behaviour in emergency is crucial to increase the safety of buildings and transportation systems. Decision making during evacuations implies different choices, of which one of the most important concerns is the escape route. The choice of a route may involve local decisions on alternative exits from an enclosed environment. This study investigates the effect of environmental (presence of smoke, emergency lighting and distance of exit) and social factors (interaction with evacuees close to the exits and with those near the decision-maker) on local exit choice. This goal is pursued using an online stated preference survey carried out making use of non-immersive virtual reality. A sample of 1503 participants is obtained and a mixed logit model is calibrated using these data. The model shows that the presence of smoke, emergency lighting, distance of exit, number of evacuees near the exits and the decision-maker and flow of evacuees through the exits significantly affect local exit choice. Moreover, the model indicates that decision making is affected by a high degree of behavioural uncertainty. Our findings support the improvement of evacuation models and the accuracy of their results, which can assist in designing and managing building and transportation systems. The main aim of this study is to enrich the understanding of how local exit choices are made and how behavioural uncertainty affects these choices.     

Collection, spillback, and dissipation in pedestrian evacuation: A network-based method

We present a method of predicting pedestrian route choice behavior and physical congestion during the evacuation of indoor areas with internal obstacles. Under the proposed method, a network is first constructed by discretizing the space into regular hexagonal cells and giving these cells potentials before a modified cell transmission model is employed to predict the evolution of pedestrian flow in the network over time and space. Several properties of this cell transmission model are explored. The method can be used to predict the evolution of pedestrian flow over time and space in indoor areas with internal obstacles and to investigate the collection, spillback, and dissipation behavior of pedestrians passing through a bottleneck. The cell transmission model is further extended to imitate the movements of multiple flows of pedestrians with different destinations. An algorithm based on generalized cell potential is also developed to assign the pedestrian flow.     

Specification and calibration of a microscopic model for pedestrian dynamic simulation at signalized intersections: A hybrid approach

Macroscopic pedestrian models for bidirectional flow analysis encounter limitations in describing microscopic dynamics at crosswalks. Pedestrian behavior at crosswalks is typically characterized by the evasive effect with conflicting pedestrians and vehicles and the following effect with leading pedestrians. This study proposes a hybrid approach (i.e., route search and social force-based approach) for modeling of pedestrian movement at signalized crosswalks. The key influential factors, i.e., leading pedestrians, conflict with opposite pedestrians, collision avoidance with vehicles, and compromise with traffic lights, are considered. Aerial video data collected at one intersection in Beijing, China were recorded and extracted. A new calibration approach based on a genetic algorithm is proposed that enables optimization of the relative error of pedestrian trajectory in two dimensions, i.e., moving distance and angle. Model validation is conducted by comparison with the observed trajectories in five typical cases of pedestrian crossing with or without conflict between pedestrians and vehicles. The characteristics of pedestrian flow, speed, acceleration, pedestrian-vehicle conflict, and the lane formation phenomenon were compared with those from two competitive models, thus demonstrating the advantage of the proposed model.     

Route Choice Models Used in the Stochastic User Equilibrium Problem: A Review

Several route choice models are reviewed in the context of the stochastic user equilibrium problem. The traffic assignment problem has been extensively studied in the literature. Several models were developed focusing mainly on the solution of the link flow pattern for congested urban areas. The behavioural assumption governing route choice, which is the essential part of any traffic assignment model, received relatively much less attention. The core of any traffic assignment method is the route choice model. In the wellknown deterministic case, a simple choice model is assumed in which drivers choose their best route. The assumption of perfect knowledge of travel costs has been long considered inadequate to explain travel behaviour. Consequently, probabilistic route choice models were developed in which drivers were assumed to minimize their perceived costs given a set of routes. The objective of the paper is to review the different route choice models used to solve the traffic assignment problem. Focus is on the different model structures. The paper connects some of the route choice models proposed long ago, such as the logit and probit models, with recently developed models. It discusses several extensions to the simple logit model, as well as the choice set generation problem and the incorporation of the models in the assignment problem.     

Driver response to variable message signs: a stated preference investigation

This paper uses a Stated Preference approach to undertake a detailed assessment of the effect on drivers’ route choice of information provided by variable message signs (VMS). Although drivers’ response to VMS information will vary according to the availability of alternative routes and the extent to which they are close substitutes, our findings show that route choice can be strongly influenced by the provision of information about traffic conditions ahead. This has important implications for the use of VMS systems as part of comprehensive traffic management and control systems. The principal findings are that the impact of VMS information depends on: the content of the message, such as the cause of delay and its extent; local circumstances, such as relative journey times in normal conditions; and drivers’ characteristics, such as their age, sex and previous network knowledge. The impact of qualitative indicators, visible queues and delays were examined. It was found that not only is delay time more highly valued than normal travel time, which is to be expected, but that drivers become more sensitive to delay time as delay times increased across the range presented.     

A dual control approach for repeated anticipatory traffic control with estimation of network flow sensitivity

This paper investigates a strategic signal control, which anticipates travelers' route choice response and determines signal timings to optimize network‐wide objectives. In general traffic assignment models are used for anticipating this route choice response. However, model‐reality mismatch usually brings suboptimal solutions to the real system. A repeated anticipatory control resolves the suboptimality and addresses the modeling error by learning from information on model bias. This paper extends the repeated control approach and focuses on the estimation of flow sensitivity as well as its influence on control, which is a crucial issue in implementation of model bias correction. The main objective of this paper is first to analyze the estimation error in the real flow derivative that is estimated from noisy measurements. A dual control method is then presented, improving both optimization objective function and derivative estimation during the control process. The proposed dual algorithm is tested on a simple network as well as on a midsize network. Numerical examples confirm the reliable performance of the new reality‐tracking control strategy and its ability to identify (local) optimal solutions on real traffic networks. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Dynamic charging infrastructure deployment for plug-in hybrid electric trucks

Inspired by the rapid development of charging-while-driving (CWD) technology, plans are ongoing in government agencies worldwide for the development of electrified road freight transportation systems through the deployment of dynamic charging lanes. This en route method for the charging of plug-in hybrid electric trucks is expected to supplement the more conventional charging technique, thus enabling significant reduction in fossil fuel consumption and pollutant emission from road freight transportation. In this study, we investigated the optimal deployment of dynamic charging lanes for plug-in hybrid electric trucks. First, we developed a multi-class multi-criteria user equilibrium model of the route choice behaviors of truck and passenger car drivers and the resultant equilibrium flow distributions. Considering that the developed user equilibrium model may have non-unique flow distributions, a robust deployment of dynamic charging lanes that optimizes the system performance under the worst-case flow distributions was targeted. The problem was formulated as a generalized semi-infinite min-max program, and a heuristic algorithm for solving it was proposed. This paper includes numerical examples that were used to demonstrate the application of the developed models and solution algorithms.     

Waiting zones for realistic modelling of pedestrian dynamics: A case study using two major German railway stations as examples

The value of a pedestrian stream simulation depends on its ability to reproduce natural behaviour of pedestrians in different situations. Most models assume that pedestrians are single-minded and constantly move towards their destinations. However, our observations at two major German railway stations made during field experiments and our analysis of video recordings at one of these stations revealed that in virtually every setting a significant proportion of pedestrians do not walk continuously. Instead, they occasionally change their route in order to visit certain locations and stand there for a period of time. By waiting, they often block walking pedestrians and thereby influence the overall dynamics.In this paper, we evaluate the impact of waiting pedestrians and propose a model for waiting pedestrians based on cellular automata. The model is able to reproduce the observed pedestrian behaviour. We illustrate the model with simulations of several real life scenarios for a major German railway station and show that during rush hour standing pedestrians may prolong walking time by up to nearly 20%. We also demonstrate how the developed model can be used for the analysis of infrastructures, and prediction of problematic areas in public spaces.     

A hybrid simulation-assignment modeling framework for crowd dynamics in large-scale pedestrian facilities

This paper presents a hybrid simulation-assignment modeling framework for studying crowd dynamics in large-scale pedestrian facilities. The proposed modeling framework judiciously manages the trade-off between ability to accurately capture congestion phenomena resulting from the pedestrians’ collective behavior and scalability to model large facilities. We present a novel modeling framework that integrates a dynamic simulation-assignment logic with a hybrid (two-layer or bi-resolution) representation of the facility. The top layer consists of a network representation of the facility, which enables modeling the pedestrians’ route planning decisions while performing their activities. The bottom layer consists of a high resolution Cellular Automata (CA) system for all open spaces, which enables modeling the pedestrians’ local maneuvers and movement decisions at a high level of detail. The model is applied to simulate the crowd dynamics in the ground floor of Al-Haram Al-Sharif Mosque in the City of Mecca, Saudi Arabia during the pilgrimage season. The analysis illustrates the model’s capability in accurately representing the observed congestion phenomena in the facility.     

A path-size weibit stochastic user equilibrium model

The aim of this paper is to develop a path-size weibit (PSW) route choice model with an equivalent mathematical programming (MP) formulation under the stochastic user equilibrium (SUE) principle that can account for both route overlapping and route-specific perception variance problems. Specifically, the Weibull distributed random error term handles the identically distributed assumption such that the perception variance with respect to different trip lengths can be distinguished, and a path-size factor term is introduced to resolve the route overlapping issue by adjusting the choice probabilities for routes with strong couplings with other routes. A multiplicative Beckmann’s transformation (MBec) combined with an entropy term are used to develop the MP formulation for the PSW-SUE model. A path-based algorithm based on the partial linearization method is adopted for solving the PSW-SUE model. Numerical examples are also provided to illustrate features of the PSW-SUE model and its differences compared to some existing SUE models as well as its applicability on a real-size network.     

Network user equilibrium of battery electric vehicles considering flow-dependent electricity consumption

This paper addresses the equilibrium traffic assignment problem involving battery electric vehicles (BEVs) with flow-dependent electricity consumption. Due to the limited driving range and the costly/time-consuming recharging process required by current BEVs, as well as the scarce availability of battery charging/swapping stations, BEV drivers usually experience fear that their batteries may run out of power en route. Therefore, when choosing routes, BEV drivers not only try to minimize their travel costs, but also have to consider the feasibility of their routes. Moreover, considering the potential impact of traffic congestion on the electricity consumption of BEVs, the feasibility of routes may be determined endogenously rather than exogenously. A set of user equilibrium (UE) conditions from the literature is first presented to describe the route choice behaviors of BEV drivers considering flow-dependent electricity consumption. The UE conditions are then formulated as a nonlinear complementarity model. The model is further formulated as a variational inequality (VI) model and is solved using an iterative solution procedure. Numerical examples are provided to demonstrate the proposed models and solution algorithms. Discussions of how to evaluate and improve the system performance with non-unique link flow distribution are offered. A robust congestion pricing model is formulated to obtain a pricing scheme that minimizes the system travel cost under the worst-case tolled flow distribution. Finally, a further extension of the mathematical formulation for the UE conditions is provided.     

A network‐based dynamic air traffic flow model for short‐term en route traffic prediction

This paper presents a dynamic network‐based approach for short‐term air traffic flow prediction in en route airspace. A dynamic network characterizing both the topological structure of airspace and the dynamics of air traffic flow is developed, based on which the continuity equation in fluid mechanics is adopted to describe the continuous behaviour of the en route traffic. Building on the network‐based continuity equation, the space division concept in cell transmission model is introduced to discretize the proposed model both in space and time. The model parameters are sequentially updated based on the statistical properties of the recent radar data and the new predicting results. The proposed method is applied to a real data set from Shanghai Area Control Center for the short‐term air traffic flow prediction both at flight path and en route sector level. The analysis of the case study shows that the developed method can characterize well the dynamics of the en route traffic flow, thereby providing satisfactory prediction results with appropriate uncertainty limits. The mean relative prediction errors are less than 0.10 and 0.14, and the absolute errors fall in the range of 0 to 1 and 0 to 3 in more than 95% time intervals respectively, for the flight path and en route sector level. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Microscopic decision model for pedestrian route choice at signalized crosswalks

In this paper, two‐tier mathematical models were developed to simulate the microscopic pedestrian decision‐making process of route choice at signalized crosswalks. In the first tier, a discrete choice model was proposed to predict the choices of walking direction. In the second tier, an exponential model was calibrated to determine the step size in the chosen direction. First, a utility function was defined in the first‐tier model to describe the change of utility in response to deviation from a pedestrian's target direction and the conflicting effects of neighboring pedestrians. A mixed logit model was adopted to estimate the effects of the explanatory variables on the pedestrians' decisions. Compared with the standard multinomial logit model, it was shown that the mixed logit model could accommodate the heterogeneity. The repeated observations for each pedestrian were grouped as panel data to ensure that the parameters remained constant for individual pedestrians but varied among the pedestrians. The mixed logit model with panel data was found to effectively address inter‐pedestrian heterogeneity and resulted in a better fit than the standard multinomial logit model. Second, an exponential model in the second tier was proposed to further determine the step size of individual pedestrians in the chosen direction; it indicates the change in walking speed in response to the presence of other pedestrians. Finally, validation was conducted on an independent set of observation data in Hong Kong. The pedestrians' routes and destinations were predicted with the two‐tier models. Compared with the tracked trajectories, the average error between the predicted destinations and the observed destinations was within an acceptable margin. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Robust real-time pedestrians detection in urban environments with low-resolution cameras

Detecting that pedestrians are present in front of a vehicle is highly desirable to avoid dangerous traffic situations. A novel vision-based system is presented to automatically detect far-away pedestrians with low-resolution cameras mounted in vehicles given the contributions of fixed cameras present in the scene.Fixed cameras detect pedestrians by solving an inverse problem built upon a multi-class dictionary of atoms approximating the foreground silhouettes. A sparse-sensing strategy is proposed to extract the foreground silhouettes and classify them in real-time. Mobile cameras detect pedestrians given only their appearance in the fixed cameras. A cascade of compact binary strings is presented to model the appearance of pedestrians and match them across cameras.The proposed system addresses the practical requirements of transportation systems: it runs in real-time with low memory loads and bandwidth consumption. We evaluate the performance of our system when extracted features are severely degraded and the sensing devices are of low quality. Experimental results demonstrate the feasibility of our collaborative vision-based system.     

Routing aspects of electric vehicle drivers and their effects on network performance

This study investigates the routing aspects of battery electric vehicle (BEV) drivers and their effects on the overall traffic network performance. BEVs have unique characteristics such as range limitation, long battery recharging time, and recuperation of energy lost during the deceleration phase if equipped with regenerative braking system (RBS). In addition, the energy consumption rate per unit distance traveled is lower at moderate speed than at higher speed. This raises two interesting questions: (i) whether these characteristics of BEVs will lead to different route selection compared to conventional internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), and (ii) whether such route selection implications of BEVs will affect the network performance. With the increasing market penetration of BEVs, these questions are becoming more important. This study formulates a multi-class dynamic user equilibrium (MCDUE) model to determine the equilibrium flows for mixed traffic consisting of BEVs and ICEVs. A simulation-based solution procedure is proposed for the MCDUE model. In the MCDUE model, BEVs select routes to minimize the generalized cost which includes route travel time, energy related costs and range anxiety cost, and ICEVs to minimize route travel time. Results from numerical experiments illustrate that BEV drivers select routes with lower speed to conserve and recuperate battery energy while ICEV drivers select shortest travel time routes. They also illustrate that the differences in route choice behavior of BEV and ICEV drivers can synergistically lead to reduction in total travel time and the network performance towards system optimum under certain conditions.     

Walking infrastructure design assessment by continuous space dynamic assignment modeling

For the planning and design of walking infrastructure, characterized by the fact that the pedestrians can choose their paths freely in two‐dimensional space, applicability of traditional discrete network models is limited. This contribution puts forward an approach for user‐optimal dynamic assignment in continuous time and space for analyzing for instance walking infrastructure in a two‐dimensional space. Contrary to network‐based approaches, the theory allows the traffic units to choose from an infinite non‐countable set of paths through the considered space. The approach first determines the continuous paths using a path choice model. Then, origin‐destination flows are assigned and traffic conditions are calculated. The approach to determine a user‐optimal assignment is heuristic and consists of a sequence of all‐or‐nothing assignments. An application example is presented, showing dynamic user equilibrium traffic flows through a realistic transfer station. The example is aimed at illustrating the dynamic aspects of the modeling approach, such as anticipation on expected flow conditions, and predicted behavior upon catching or missing a connection.     

Stability analysis on a dynamical model of route choice in a connected vehicle environment

Research on connected vehicle environment has been growing rapidly to investigate the effects of real-time exchange of kinetic information between vehicles and road condition information from the infrastructure through radio communication technologies. A fully connected vehicle environment can substantially reduce the latency in response caused by human perception-reaction time with the prospect of improving both safety and comfort. This study presents a dynamical model of route choice under a connected vehicle environment. We analyze the stability of headways by perturbing various factors in the microscopic traffic flow model and traffic flow dynamics in the car-following model and dynamical model of route choice. The advantage of this approach is that it complements the macroscopic traffic assignment model of route choice with microscopic elements that represent the important features of connected vehicles. The gaps between cars can be decreased and stabilized even in the presence of perturbations caused by incidents. The reduction in gaps will be helpful to optimize the traffic flow dynamics more easily with safe and stable conditions. The results show that the dynamics under the connected vehicle environment have equilibria. The approach presented in this study will be helpful to identify the important properties of a connected vehicle environment and to evaluate its benefits.     

Route choice of cyclists in Zurich

This paper presents the first route choice model for bicyclists estimated from a large sample of GPS observations and overcomes the limitations inherent in the generally employed stated preference approach. It employs an improved mode detection algorithm for GPS post-processing to determine trips made by bicycle, which are map matched to an enriched street network. The alternatives are generated as a random sample from an exhaustive, but constrained search. Accounting for the similarity between the alternatives with the path-size factor the MNL estimates show that the elasticity with regards to trip length is nearly four times larger than that with respect to the share of bike paths. The elasticity with respect to the product of length and maximum gradient of the route is small. No other variable describing the routes had an impact. The heterogeneity of the cyclists is captured through interaction terms formulated on their average behaviour.     

Uni- and bi-directional pedestrian flow in the view-limited condition: Experiments and modeling

In this paper, the impact of vision on the uni- and bi-directional flow has been investigated via experiment and modeling. In the experiments, pedestrians are asked to walk clockwise/anti-clockwise in a ring-shaped corridor under view-limited condition and normal view condition. As expected, the flow rate under the view-limited condition decreases comparing with that under the normal view condition, no matter in uni- or bi-directional flow. In bidirectional flow, pedestrians segregate into two opposite moving streams very quickly under the normal view condition, and clockwise/anti-clockwise walking pedestrians are always in the inner/outer ring due to right-walking preference. In the first set of experiment, spontaneous lane formation has not occurred under the view-limited condition. Pedestrian flow does not evolve into stationary state. Local congestion occurs and dissipates from time to time. However, in the later sets of experiments, spontaneous lane formation has re-occurred. This is because participants learned from the experience and adapted right-walking preference to avoid collision. To model the flow dynamics, an improved force-based model has been proposed. The driving force has been modified. The right-walking preference has been taken into account. The fact that pedestrians cannot judge the moving direction accurately under limited-view condition has been considered. Simulation results are in good agreement with the experimental ones.