基于轨道交通的社区公交客流预测分析

以基于距离衰减理论的可达性模型为基础,运用GIS栅格数据分析方法,获得了社区公交出行预测的新方法。主要过程包括社会经济活动的空间分解、可达性模型标定参数及可达性概率计算。以大连市七贤岭街区作为实例进行了社区公交出行客流分布预测研究,并基于实际调查对结果进行了验证。结果表明,基于GIS的可达性模型对公交出行发生预测方法在微观层次提供了一个有效的方法。该方法所需数据较少,数据分析周期短,建模成本低,适应我国目前城市建设量大、速度快的国情,是一种值得深入研究的方法。     

公交惯常出行与随机出行的时空分布差异

差异化和精细化的公交服务要求城市管理者和公交运营者加深对公交出行变异性的认识。本文将公交惯常出行定义为乘客个体多次在同一时段或空间乘坐公交的行为，随机出行的定义与之相反。利用厦门市30天连续的常规公交数据，使用DBSCAN算法对出行天数在10天以上的高频乘客进行划分，用核心点来表征惯常出行，用非核心点来表征随机出行。结果表明有78.70%的出行在时间上具有稳定性，有72.32%的出行在空间上具有稳定性。研究结论凸显了公交高频乘客也具有随机出行，且随机出行的统计特征和时空分布与惯常出行有较大差异。研究结论可以应用于个体时空模式挖掘、乘客人群划分、定制公交线路制定、公交差异化服务设置等方面。     

区域公交服务设施供需评价——以上海嘉定区为例

公共交通设施的供需匹配程度对整个交通系统的服务效率与服务水平产生极大影响。基于经济学中供需关系的理念，以上海市嘉定区公共交通服务设施为例，利用手机信令数据，提出区域公共交通服务设施分布的供需平衡的评价方法。使用洛伦兹曲线和基尼系数的方法对公共交通服务设施水平和手机信令数据表征的出行人口需求水平进行供需匹配程度评价。使用区位熵进行匹配程度的空间分析。研究表明:嘉定区公共交通供需匹配较差，资源分配基尼系数不到0.3；从区位上分析，呈现出人均资源由东北向西南方向递减的情况。最后针对轨道交通与常规公交分别给出具体建议，为各大城市内部及城市间的公交供需评价提供参考。     

公交优先助推城市交通向大众化转型

一段时间以来,一些城市管理者把城市当成少数人的城市,把城市交通当成小汽车的交通,更多考虑为少数人的出行服务,导致城市交通出现了贵族化倾向。于是就出现了种种不合理的现象:公交停车场不断从城市中心向城市边缘迁移;新建住宅小区热衷于配建小汽车停车位,而对配建公交设施反应冷淡;大量公交车辆不能入站停车,只能露宿街头;公交专用道在夹缝中生存,相关部门经常为了优先保障小汽车的畅通,而拒绝设置公交专用道,已有的公交专用道未能连接成网,无法充分发挥保障公交优先的作用。因此,发展公交都市,是落实公交优先战略的关键平台,是推进城市交通基本公共服务均等化的重要标志,也是城市交通从贵族化向大众化转型的必然选择。     

济南公交首条市民点菜式“爱巴士”R字线路开通

正济南公交"爱巴士"收集市民和乘客提出的出行需求和自行设计的线路信息,运用大数据分析,快速反应,开通"爱巴士"R字线路,提供旅游大巴车、一人一座的出行服务。为积极响应2018年公交出行宣传周活动要求,鼓励私家车主放下小汽车,倡导市民绿色出行,     

香港为什么那么多人坐公交？

香港是一个国际知名的公交都市。除了步行之外，每天近1300万人次的出行中有90％以上是靠公共交通来完成的。其中常规公交和地铁各占1／3，其余的是辅助公交的中巴、轮渡、特殊公交和出租车。虽然香港有超过50万辆小汽车，但大部分部不是每日出勤的工具。香港公交服务的另外一项特点是其市场运作机制，所有公交和辅助公交都是企业行为，毫无直接津贴，而且每个企业都能够盈利。即使是政府为最大股东的港铁也是以“谨慎的商业原则”来提供服务的。香港市民之所以依赖公交出行，大体上说有以下几点原因。     

重构城市与交通发展新格局——对话深圳公交都市建设实施方案主要执笔人薛博

70%公交分担率是理想模式,需要一个较长的实现过程。薛博认为,要赶在小汽车大规模进入普通家庭之前,尽快打造一个比小汽车更具竞争力的公共交通出行模式,眼下显得非常紧迫。     

北京市公交优惠票价政策分析

北京市小汽车的快速增加,导致了北京市交通拥堵,加剧了大气污染。实行公交优惠票价政策,体现了社会的公平性和经济合理性,有助于缓解交通拥堵和减轻大气污染,也有助于建立和谐社会。本文对公交优惠票价政策进行了经济学分析。     

基于一卡通数据的公交换乘行为分析方法

本文为了完善乘客的公交出行链,设计了一种基于一卡通数据的公交换乘行为分析方法。文章首先分析公交换乘行为的时间和空间影响因素,然后设计以公交出行记录为基础的公交换乘行为识别流程,通过实例推断出研究时间段内所有对象的公交换乘行为,最后以公交换乘系数为依据判断城市公交直达性的优劣。     

自行车:城市交通的明智选择

未来交通在城市中用自行车代替小汽车出行的五大理由:1)节约空间自行车占用的空间比小汽车少,一辆小汽车在出行和停车时所需的空间大约是一辆自行车的6倍,而往往在高峰时段一辆小汽车里只有1-2个人,所以自行车单位面积的运载量是汽车的3-6倍,需要的停车面积少67%-85%。因此,自     

Analysis of factors affecting the choice of route of pedestrians

Pedestrians as compared to vehicular traffic enjoy a high degree freedom of movement even in heavily congested areas. Consequently, there are more alternative links available to pedestrians between a given origin‐destination (O‐D) pair. This paper describes a study done by the University of Calgary to evaluate the factors affecting the choice of route on intra‐CBD trips or trips within the Central Business District (CBD).

An origin destination survey conducted in downtown Calgary, Alberta enabled the identification of the most significant factors influencing the choice. These factors were analyzed in relation to the physical characteristics of the location, personal characteristics of the trip maker and the type of the trip.

It appears that most people chose the shortest link and factors such as the level of congestion, safety or visual attractions were only secondary. This suggests that the length should be made a major consideration when planning and designing pedestrian links.     

实现多组态计量软件集中监控的可行性分析

天然气自动计量系统有多种组态软件,由于软件的不相通性,造成了计量系统数据采集的通用性差、数据传输与入库的时效性差、数据利用的可靠性低.结合各组态软件的实际情况,从设计上充分利用Oracle大数据处理能力以及Partition(分区表)的特性,实现历史数据的存储,应用WebService与COM+数据访问组件提供多层数据访问架构,采用OPC与DDE工业数据交换协议,实现了各站场计量数据的实时上传,为连续数据采集和实时监控提供了可能,节约了改造成本.     

注汽管道承压能力评估和实物试验验证

基于失效评估图技术对某注汽管道进行了承压能力评价,给出了管线在不同腐蚀壁厚情况下的极限承压能力和极限裂纹尺寸。并利用实物爆破试验验证了评价方法的安全性和有效性,通过对爆破断口进行宏观和微观分析,发现管段的开裂属于脆性开裂。     

波纹管应力分析研究进展

评述了波纹管应力理论研究方法的进展情况，围绕解析法、工程近似法和数值法，对波纹管理论研究中的一些主要成果作了较详细的回顾和总结，对各种研究方法作出了评价，展望了亟待解决的一些问题。     

Non-parametric analyses of efficiency of airports

This paper estimates the efficiencies and productivity changes of 12 international airports in the Asia-Pacific region based on data from 1998 to 2006. We apply stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) to compute efficiency estimates and use the Malmquist productivity index (MPI) to analyze productivity changes. We use the SFA model with a translog-type production function after testing the statistical hypotheses. According to the results of the SFA hypothesis tests, airports have experienced a technological regression; the deviations from the efficiency frontier are caused more by technical inefficiency than random noise. However, the inefficiency was found to decrease. The MPI reveals a declining trend resulting more from technological change than from efficiency change, with a decrease in inefficiency. Taken together, both the hypothesis tests and the MPI not only provide consistent conclusions, but also suggest that airports should concentrate on technological progress.     

Evaluation of pedestrian crosswalk level of service (LOS) in perspective of type of land-use

In India pedestrians usually cross the road at mid-block crosswalks due to ease of access to their destination or the development of adjacent land use types such as shopping, business areas, school and residential areas. The behaviour of pedestrian will change with respect to different land use type and this change in behaviour of pedestrian further reflects change in perceived level of service (LOS). So, it is important to evaluate the quality of service of such crossing facilities with respect to different land-use type under mixed traffic conditions. In this framework, pedestrian perceived LOS were collected with respect to different land-use type such as shopping, residential and business areas. The ordered probit (OP) model was developed by using NLOGIT software package, with number of vehicles encountered, road crossing difficulty as well as safety considered as primary factors along with pedestrian individual factors (gender and age), land-use type and roadway geometry. From the model results, it has been concluded that perceived safety, crossing difficulty, land-use condition, number of vehicles encountered, median width and number of lanes have significant effect on pedestrian perceived LOS at unprotected (un-signalized) mid-block crosswalks in mixed traffic scenario. The inferences of these results highlights the importance of land use planning in designing a new set of pedestrian access facilities for unprotected mid-block crosswalks under mixed traffic conditions. Also the study results would be useful for evaluating pedestrian accessibility taking into account different land-use type and planning required degree of segregation with vehicular movement at unprotected mid-block crosswalk locations.     

Direct analysis of the perceived importance of attributes of reliability of travel modes in urban travel

Reliability of travel modes was found to be the most important characteristic of transportation systems in several attitudinal investigations of individual travel behavior. This paper represents the first part of a research effort aimed at gaining a better understanding of the characteristics of reliability of transportation modes in urban travel. In this research, reliability characteristics are identified; their importance relative to each other is assessed, and an insight into possible structure of an objective reliability index is discussed. The research is based on perceived values of reliability, which were identified through a large attitudinal survey conducted in the Chicago metropolitan area.     

盾构隧道管片接头抗剪力学性能研究

通过对南京长江盾构隧道环向管片接头进行的三组原型抗剪(无螺栓剪切、有螺栓逆剪和有螺栓顺剪)加载试验,分析研究了管片接头在剪力作用下的受力、变形和破坏特征,给出了管片接头混凝土接触面的静摩擦系数,得到了接头剪力主要由混凝土接触面承担、破坏形式为连接斜螺栓剪切延性破坏的结论。通过对管片结构的有限元数值模拟计算得出:接头处的剪力与轴力比小于接缝面的摩擦系数,管片不会发生相互错动,结构是稳定的。     

埋地管道防腐保温层失效评价

明确埋地管道防腐保温层的技术评价标准,对埋地钢质管道的安全运行,延长管道使用寿命具有重要意义。为了对埋地管道防腐保温层做出有效评价,从间接检测与开挖检测2个方面,结合现场检测数据,提出了基于防腐保温层的电流衰减率、绝缘电阻率、质量状况与厚度的分级评价标准及基于4种评价指标的综合评判方法。工程实践表明,该评价标准对防腐保温层是否存在失效能做出有效判断。     

输油管道中原油乳状液的流变性研究

原油乳状液的流变性是原油开采后在管道中输送的重要研究方面,为了更好地研究这一性质,采用电动搅拌机、偏光显微镜以及流变仪等仪器来测定不同含水率的原油乳状液在不同条件下的黏度,观测不同含水率的原油乳状液在偏光显微镜下的形态。并且分别对原油乳状液的黏度与含水率之间的关系以及与剪切速率之间的关系进行研究,初步确定了所测区块原油乳状液的转相点以及该区块原油乳状液的流变特性,为生产中的油气集输提供了理论依据。