S-300与上海防空

新闻背景：据《参考消息》援引加拿大媒体的报道，上海地区正部署一处导弹基地，中国引进的俄罗斯导弹防御系统S300即将进驻上海，据称在上海市区以东某处正在构筑新的导弹发射阵地。这是2003年台湾“中科院”宣称正研制射程600—900千米的地对地导弹后，大陆采取的具体防范措施。台湾地对地导弹于屏东九鹏基地试射，打击半径涵盖上海、香港和大陆东南沿海各重要城市。台湾官员声称已经制定了“毒蝎计划”，一旦遭到来自大陆的“攻击”，台湾将动用导弹和航空兵攻击上海。上海是中国大陆最大和最重要的商业、金融和工业城市，2003年全市GPD总值为6240亿，而上海带动周边城市群以及长江三角洲地区的发展作用，更是中国大陆其它城市无出其右。在大陆经济体系中，起如此关键作用的上海地区如果遭到台湾攻击，对整个大陆经济将产生非常严重的后果。因此，在大上海周边建立强大的防空体系，无疑是保卫中国经济的重要步骤。     

上海海事局全力服务上海国际航运中心建设

上海——这个中国最大的经济城市21世纪该如何发展？金融和航运是上海经济再展辉煌的两个支撑点。上海要发展离不开航运和金融。3月25日，上海建设国际金融中心和国际航运中心获国务院审议并原则通过。上海再展辉煌的号角又一次吹响。     

香港的国际航运中心地位被上海超越了吗——访上海国际航运研究中心专家委员会委员、上海航运经纪人俱乐部秘书长刘巽良

随着上海全方位打造亚洲乃至全球国际航运中心建设的深入,香港的国际航运中心地位会不会被上海超越也成为了人们关注的焦点。这种关注并非空穴来风。因为从国际上来看,东亚及中国经济的发展带动了全球经济重心的东移,同时也推动了全球航运中心的东移,这就促使上海国际航运中心建设的应运而生。近10年来,上海港口货物吞吐量已经位居世界前列,上海港跃至世界第一大港。在地缘上,上海也有着香港无可比拟的优势,位于中国海岸线的中心,地处黄金水道和黄金海岸的交汇处,背靠长三角经济带和长江沿线腹地,具有强大的腹地经济支撑。另外,无论在经济总量、经济增长率还是经济活力上,上海都已经超越了香港。加之上海自贸区建设的深化,上海建设国际航运中心的优势愈发明显。与此同时,香港周边的珠三角港口在迅速崛起,香港中转港地位正在下降,航运及物流相关产业加速向内地迁移,香港航运业所具有的某些优势正在逐步消失。那么在现阶段,上海会超越香港的国际航运中心地位吗?2009年7月,上海国际航运研究中心专家委员会委员、上海航运经纪人俱乐部秘书长刘巽良先生写了一篇题为"香港航运地位保得住吗"的文章,文章结论是,上海建设国际航运中心暂时不会对香港高端航运服务业产生显著影响。就这个话题,本刊专访了刘巽良先生。     

中国（上海）自由贸易试验区建设对上海邮轮业发展的影响及对策

分析中国（上海）自由贸易试验区在经济环境、城市接待能力、人力资源、政府作用、运营环境等方面的相关政策对上海邮轮产业的影响,以及中国（上海）自由贸易试验区建设对邮轮产业短期发展的不利影响,提出实现中国（上海）自由贸易试验区政策与邮轮经济发展相衔接的对策,从娱乐产业建设、交通建设、政府作用、邮轮人才培养、金融改革等5个方面推动上海邮轮经济的发展,并为决策者提供参考。     

发展港口物流的几点思考

上海的城市发展目标，定位为国际经济、金融、贸易和航运中心，发达的现代物流业既是这四个中心得以实现的基本保证之一，也是实现这四个中心的标志性结果之一。配合上海四个中心的建设，尤其是上海国际航运中心的建设和发展，举办像今天这样的物流研讨会，就显得尤其必要和适时。     

一国两制优势可救香港航运业?

<正>随着内地经济腾飞,香港作为中国走向世界的"踏板"作用逐年减少,其中于国际贸易方面,由于珠三角港口的崛起,本港航运业的光芒逐渐黯淡下来,不少航运相关业者"避走"香港,转投备受政府支持的新加坡航运业发展。有学者呼吁,港府应充分利用"一国两制"的优势,为港航运业谋福利。胜负关乎政府态度香港向来奉行"小政府、大市场"理念,一切均由市场自由发展,但是,新加坡和上海这两个最强劲对手的背后,却有当地政府的大力支持。     

上海港与宁波-舟山港的错位发展探讨

<正>一、上海港发展现状分析1.上海港发展面临的机遇(1)建成四个中心的有利时机2001年5月,国务院批复的《上海市城市总体规划(1999-2020)》所提出的城市发展目标是:2020年,把上海初步建成国际经济、金融、贸易中心之一,基本确立上海国际经济中心城市的地位,基本建成上海国际航运中心。随着中国国际贸易份额的不断扩大和高层次的自由港和自由贸易区的建设,给上海港的发展带来极为有利的条件,也使上海港处于国内外商     

天津五洲国际码头推动服务创新扩展码头价值

天津自古因漕运而兴起,明朝永乐间正式筑城,是中国古代唯一有确切建城时间记录的城市之一."近代百年看天津"成为世人共识.天津今位于环渤海经济圈中心,现为中国北方国际航运中心,北方最大沿海开放城市,同时是夏季达沃斯论坛常驻举办城市.天津滨海新区被誉为"中国经济第三增长极".人民网近日颁布的"2012年度中国最具投资潜力城市50强"名单中,天津排名第4,仅次于北京、上海和香港.     

香港经济转型和香港港的发展

<正>香港是全球重要的经济中心,是继纽约和伦敦之后的第三大国际金融中心。香港之所以能发展成为国际大都市,是香港经济与香港港互动的结果。香港港支持香港经济的发展,而香港经济的发展,又可以生成更多的货流,从而形成了良性循环。从1992年至2004年,香港港雄踞全球集装箱港口榜首十余年。内地改革开放后香港制造业大量内迁,香港自身货流生成能力随之大幅度下降,香港港成为一个靠中转货流支撑的港口。2012年,香港港中转货物吞吐量占货物吞吐总量的58.7%,集装箱中转吞吐量更占集装箱吞吐总量的70.9%。这表明,港口的类型主要取决于所在城市的经济形态,并随着城市经济形态的变化而变化。     

香港的地位会被上海取代吗?

近年来不少专家反复预言，上海将迟早取代香港，一跃成为中国的国际商贸金融中心，预言家中还不乏香港同胞。目前看来，上海也确实有其取代香港的雄心壮志和大胆开放市场的战略性举措，例如近年来不断宣布外国银行、金融服务中心、律师事务所、商贸集团相继在上海开业的消息；外国商贸金融巨头纷纷在上海露面，不断发表赞扬上海的热情洋溢的评论；正在建设中的工程浩大的上海洋山港国际集装箱枢纽港，还有上海市区高楼大厦鳞次栉比，现代化的城市环境展现在人们面前，上海商贸金融行业人才辈出，呈现在人     

Competition between the ports of Hong Kong and Singapore: a structural vector error correction model to forecast the demand for container handling services

The objective of this paper is to provide the Hong Kong government with an alternative forecast of container throughput, by studying various interactive relationships between major ports in East and Southeast Asia. As the demand for container handling services is 'derived' from the demand for imports, the resulting market shares for the container handling services gripped by different regions inevitably become a mirror image of the relative competitiveness of their exports. When the markets of the two ports overlap, their market shares will become a function of the prices they charge and how well they meet the needs of the shippers and shipping lines. A vector error correction model (VECM) with structural identification was set up to capture this kind of trade-interdependency and oligopolistic relationship in the East and Southeast Asian market for container handling services. In the course of so-doing, the upward sloping supply curves and downward sloping demand curve for the container handling services provided by Hong Kong and Singapore are identified from the model. Interestingly, the impulse response functions display what is reminiscent of the trade-interdependency and oligopolistic relationship. The forecast of Hong Kong container throughput generated by the structural VECM is then compared with that obtained by the Hong Kong Port Development Board (PDB). The sensitivity analysis shows that, in all possible cases, the structural VECM produces higher growth paths for the Hong Kong container throughput than the PDB does and, hence, suggests an earlier construction of new terminals.     

The decline of the U.K. merchant fleet: an assessment of government policies in recent years—a rejoinder to Goss's comment

In recent years, the Hong Kong port has been challenged by the emergence of the Shenzhen port. This gives rise to a concern that the high terminal handling charges (THC) levied by the Hong Kong terminal operators are undermining the competitiveness of the Hong Kong port. As the major container terminals in both Hong Kong and Shenzhen are operated by the Hong Kong terminal operators, the monopoly power of these operators is commonly believed to be the cause of the high THC in Hong Kong. The theoretical model developed in this study shows that the trigger point mechanism (TPM) used by the Hong Kong Government to control the supply of terminal capacity may be a source of such monopoly power. Two possible scenarios are considered in the model—Scenario 1 in which expansion of capacity is unconstrained (i.e. the Shenzhen port); and Scenario 2 in which expansion of capacity is constrained by TPM (i.e. the Hong Kong port). Under TPM, the Hong Kong Government commits not to grant the right to build new container terminals unless and until the demand for container handling services exceeds the current capacity by a certain amount, which provides the incumbent operators incentives to invest preemptively in excess capacity in order to block the entry of potential entrants. This model is supported by the empirical findings from this study. The results from this study suggest an urgent need for the Hong Kong Government to overhaul the current port development policy as a part of the effort to promote economic integration between Hong Kong and the Mainland China.     

珠三角集装箱码头发展与香港关系的定量论述

针对不同层面关注珠三角集装箱码头发展与香港的关系,从香港、深圳港和广州港等集装箱运输发展现状及关系着手,结合广东省外贸集装箱生成量和珠江三角洲集装箱码头规划和建设情况,在不同情景下以顺向和逆向思维预测和定量分析香港与珠三角集装箱码头吞吐量之间的互补关系,探索它们之间共同繁荣、协调发展的平衡点.     

Port resources rationalization for better container barge services in Hong Kong

The manufacturing base in the Pearl River Delta of China is moving westwards, where the Pearl River system has extensive coverage. This makes container barge transport a new growth area for Hong Kong Port. Traditionally, Hong Kong Port has been the main gateway for containers transported through the Pearl River system, but this advantageous position is under challenge from the adjacent ports in South China, especially from Shenzhen Port, which is keen to take a bigger share of the new growth by improving the access of barges to its port facilities. While services at Shenzhen Port are improving, barge operators have been experiencing high congestion at Hong Kong Port. Improving the quality of barge container services becomes crucial for Hong Kong Port. In this study, we propose and investigate three improvement strategies: to enhance the consolidation of small container flows, to increase the efficiency of berth allocations for barges, and to optimize the overall utilization of port resources in Hong Kong. These strategies can be instrumental for keeping Hong Kong's status as the gateway for the Pearl River system and help maintain its competitiveness as an international shipping hub.     

参观香港冬季国际游艇展览有感

2005年12月3日-4日香港举办了新一届冬季国际游艇展览会，这是2005年香港举办的第二个国际游艇展。香港一向实行自由贸易的市场运作机制，绝大部分的国际展览活动都交由民间的私人商业机构来举办。在游艇展览方面，香港政府引入两家私人机构同年举办国际游艇展览会，意在繁荣活跃香港的水上活动。早在2005年4月初，香港西部的黄金海岸游艇会就举办了香港第8届国际游艇展览会。才过去半年时间，12月份香港政府又在香港东部西贡的匡湖居游艇会办展，     

Port co-opetition in concept and practice

The port industry has undergone a rationalization process over the last decade. An increasing proportion of port management and operations is being taken over by global port operating groups. Many port operators who previously ran only their local business now extend their business scope to the regional or global scale; today's port operators can be regarded as multinational corporations. In the era of global economy, a port no longer enjoys a natural monopoly, as was the case in the past. To cope with this changing business environment, a certain form of competition and co-operation among ports is necessary so as to provide services that fit into shipping lines' strategies. It is suggested that ports have to concentrate on new ways for co-operation in an effort to establish a countervailing power. This paper proposes a new strategic option known as co-opetition , the combination of competition and co-operation, for the port industry, and explains a case of co-opetition between the container ports in Hong Kong and South China. The results of this research will provide a useful insight into the port industry, which is currently required to carry out its business in an ever-changing business environment.     

The implications of the re-establishment of direct links across the Taiwan Strait on the aviation industries in Greater China

This paper investigates the economic implications of the liberalization of air transportation across the Taiwan Strait to the region's aviation industries. Our analysis suggests that (1) liberalization has brought substantial benefits to airports and airlines in Mainland China and Taiwan. Negative impacts to Hong Kong are largely compensated by traffic increase in routes linking Mainland China. (2) In general, Taiwanese airports and airlines have benefited more from liberalization compared to airports and airlines on the mainland and Hong Kong. Such asymmetric effect is due to the larger size of the Mainland Chinese aviation market, which allows Taiwanese airlines to exploit network-related benefits. (3) Our investigation suggests that foreign hub carriers and medium sized Chinese airports will benefit most from China's future liberalizations.     

Evolving competition between Hong Kong and Shenzhen ports

Shenzhen Port (SZP), once a negligible local port, has risen dramatically to a world-leading container port and an “equal” player with Hong Kong Port (HKP). Will this market share reallocation continue, or will equilibrium be eventually realized for HKP to prosper continuously? We examine the relationship between these two ports to answer this question. We propose a new transformation method to describe the growth of container cargo transport demand, define the quantitative measures of the competition relationship and port competitiveness, and present a rigorous analytical framework with econometric tests and models to understand the true relationship between HKP and SZP. Direct empirical tests suggest that SZP complements HKP; however, the two ports exhibit strong competition when the effect of demand growth is excluded. Considering transshipment separately, we find that the impact of SZP on HKP is negative in transshipment but complementary in direct shipment. We may conclude that HKP does not affect SZP, whereas SZP has competitive power over HKP. These results are consistent with the findings of some previous theoretical studies.     

Port co-opetition in concept and practice

The port industry has undergone a rationalization process over the last decade. An increasing proportion of port management and operations is being taken over by global port operating groups. Many port operators who previously ran only their local business now extend their business scope to the regional or global scale; today's port operators can be regarded as multinational corporations. In the era of global economy, a port no longer enjoys a natural monopoly, as was the case in the past. To cope with this changing business environment, a certain form of competition and co-operation among ports is necessary so as to provide services that fit into shipping lines' strategies. It is suggested that ports have to concentrate on new ways for co-operation in an effort to establish a countervailing power. This paper proposes a new strategic option known as co-opetition, the combination of competition and co-operation, for the port industry, and explains a case of co-opetition between the container ports in Hong Kong and South China. The results of this research will provide a useful insight into the port industry, which is currently required to carry out its business in an ever-changing business environment.     

Multicommodity network flow model for Asia's container ports

This paper seeks to develop a multi-commodity network model to analyse the flow of containers within the Asia Pacific context. The model is used to evaluate the impact of container throughput in Asia's port by varying terminal handling charges and turnaround time. The three main regions analysed are north-east Asia, east Asia (Chinese port region) and south east Asia. Using the model, it could be shown that Busan port, which is an important transhipment hub in north-east Asia, could boost the container activities in the north-eastern part of China by improving its service quality. It is also found that the efficiency of the land link between Hong Kong and mainland China plays a crucial role for the future of Hong Kong port. While Singapore port maintains its position as a transhipment hub in south-east Asia, there would be expected competition from neighbouring low costs ports.