绿华山水域水上交通事故特征及风险防范建议

为认识和防范绿华山水域水上交通事故风险,保障水域通航安全,搜集2009―2020年绿华山水域水上交通事故资料,梳理事故主要数据。基于统计资料,采用数理统计方法分析绿华山水域水上交通事故的时间特征、空间特征、构成特征和事故特点,概括主要事故风险并提出风险防范建议。研究过程及结果对于认识和防范绿华山水域水上交通事故风险具有直接作用,对于找出事故发生的规律和事故发生的原因、制订相关法规、加强海事管理等具有支持作用。     

长三角水系:从严治超

内河水域违章超载已成为引发水上交通事故的“害群之马”。目前,我国水上超载运输80%以上集中在长江三角洲水系,由超载运输而造成的事故占到内河水上交通事故的60%左右,部分水域甚至高达70%以上。交通部海事局常务副局长刘功臣曾对CCTV记者说过,整个长江三角洲水系超载问题解决了,就意味着我国水上超载运输基本上得到了有效整治。     

水上交通事故统计办法

第一条 为有效地组织水上交通事故统计工作，保障水上交通事故统计资料准确、及时，提高水上交通安全管理水平，依据《中华人民共和国统计法》、《中华人民共和国海上交通安全法》和《中华人民共和国内河交通安全管理条例》，制定本办法。 第二条 本办法适用于中华人民共和国沿海水域和内河通航水域发生的水上交通事故及中国籍船舶在境外水域发生的水上交通事故的统计。 第三条 交通部依法主管全国水上交通事故的统计管理工作。县级以上地方人民政府交通主管部门依法主管本行政区域内单位和个人所属船舶发生的水上交通事故的统计工作。交通部直属海事局及省、自治区、直辖市所属地方海事管理机构(以下称海事管理机构)，依照职责分工，负责所辖区内发生的水上交通事故的统计工作。中央……     

船舶失控的成因及对策

船舶的失控险情和事故,对长江水域的沿江码头、航行和停泊的船舶以及水上桥梁构成了严重的威胁,极易引发重特大水上交通事故,本文分析了船舶失控的确原因,并提出了相应的对策。     

浅谈南京VTS监控水域的交通安全评估

南京辖区范围内水上船舶交通事故时有发生,但是通过VTS监控以及长江江苏段船舶定线制的实施,辖区内船舶交通事故逐年递减,文中从安全评估角度对提高南京水域航行效率、保证航行安全等方面做简要评估。     

论船舶碰撞导致污染事故的责任认定和行政处罚问题

部令《水上交通事故统计办法》将船舶污染事故并入了"水上交通事故",实现了两者合并。在此背景下,船舶碰撞导致水域污染作为水上交通事故的特殊形式,其后续处理上,主要是"碰撞"和"污染"两方面的事故责任认定以及行政处罚是否也可合并、也应合并?实践中做法不一。文中围绕此问题,试做探析和解答,旨帮助海事执法人员更好开展该项工作。     

船上人员意外落水,海事如何查?

正意外落水事故极为平常,然而海事人员在开展船上人员意外落水事故调查时,常常感到困惑。那么,对于这类事故难点在哪里?该坚持怎样的调查方向?2015年1月1日,交通运输部2014年15号令——《水上交通事故统计办法》正式实施,船上人员意外落水事故纳入事故统计。由于人员意外落水事故在该办法中被认为是"其他引起人员伤亡、直接经济损失、水域环境污染的水上交通事故",根据《中华人民共和国海上交通事故调查处理条例》、《内河交通事故调查处理规定》,海事部门应对此类事故开展调查处理。     

山东威海石岛东南事故多发水域安全监管对策

通过分析研究石岛以东及东南水域历年来的船舶交通事故,准确把握事故的规律性,更加科学、客观地评价辖区水上交通安全状况的风险因素,提出了加强监管对策,以期为事故预防预控开展有效监管提供有力支持。     

舟山海域船舶交通事故分析及预防

为稳定舟山海域海上交通安全形势,减少船舶交通事故,透过船舶交通事故4项指标,按照不同事故类型、不同船舶类型、不同月份、不同时间段介绍近5年船舶交通事故,分析舟山海域发生船舶交通事故的主要原因并提出有针对性的对策措施,旨在减少舟山水域水上交通事故。     

大桥施工水域交通事故的防范

2001年3月3日，广西藤县西江大桥（以下简称大桥）开始了为期7个多月的间歇性封航吊装施工。从3月3日至3月23日，短短的20天时间里，在不到1000米的施工水域范围内便发生了9起水上交通事故，3艘船舶翻沉，6艘船舶穿孔进水，2人失踪，事故直接经济损失超过40万元。如此短时间内在同一水域发生多起类似事故，在广西航运史上实属罕见！     

Duration analysis for recurrent ship accidents

About 63% of the world’s shipping accidents are recurrent—they occur to ships that have already experienced at least one prior accident. Therefore, reducing recurrent accidents can contribute significantly to maritime safety. We study the factors affecting both first and recurrent accidents, by focusing on the duration between two accidents. Cox proportional hazard models are applied to ship accident data from 1996 to 2015, and the results identify which ships have a high risk of recurrent accidents, based on ship attributes, ship supply and market conditions, shipbuilding country, previous accident type, and ship type. The recurrent rate is high when the ship involved in the accident is old, small, flies a flag of convenience, and has no detention record. In addition, the accident risk increases when the shipping market faces a high bunker price, overcapacity in supply, a high time charter rate, or low newbuilding price. On the other hand, ships built in China and Japan have lower recurrent accident rates than those built elsewhere, although ships built in China have earlier first accidents than do others. General cargo ships have the highest recurrent accident rate, followed by dry bulkers, container ships, and tankers, in that order.     

基于FTA的渔船海损事故分析

事故树分析(FTA)是一种重要而常用的系统安全分析方法。将该方法运用到了渔船海事分析中,并以渔船触礁事故为例运用事故树描述事故的因果关系,进行定性分析,确定出事故的主要因素,提出了事故的控制措施。研究结果表明,在渔船海损事故分析中应用事故树分析方法,有利于对事故的全面分析,便于找出引发事故的直接原因,总结经验,提出事故预防措施,降低事故发生率,保障渔业生产的健康发展。     

Casualty analysis of large tankers

This article presents detailed results of a comprehensive analysis of recorded accidents of large oil tankers (deadweight greater than 80 000 tonnes) occurring between 1978 and 2003. The analysis encompasses a thorough review of available raw accident data and their postprocessing in a way to produce appropriate statistics useful for the implementation of risk-based assessment methodologies. The processing of the captured data led to the identification of significant qualitative historical trends of tanker accidents and of quantitative characteristics of large tanker accidents, such as overall accident rates per ship-year. Data were also analyzed for all major accident categories separately, taking into account tanker ship size/type, the degree of accident severity, and the oil spill tonne rates per ship-year; this led to the identification of heavily polluted worldwide geographical areas as a result of large tanker accidents.     

人为失误与船舶引航事故的预防

船舶引航事故中的主要原因是人为失误,在分析该原因及其相关的失误链与事件链和不同种类失误的基础上,全面认识人为因素与引航事故的关系,注意调节引航员生理与心理状态和及时识别并破断引航中的失误链与事故链的角度,就预防船舶引航事故的发生进行了论述,并提出了一些设想与建议。     

Determinants of the damage cost and injury severity of ferry vessel accidents

This study investigates determinants of the property damage cost and injury severity of ferry vessel accidents. Detailed data of individual ferry vessel accidents for the 11-year timeperiod 1991–2001 that were investigated by the U.S. Coast Guard are used to estimate ferry-vessel accident property damage cost and injury severity equations. Tobit regression is used to estimate the former equation and the ordered probit model is used to estimate the latter. Property damage costs include damage costs to the vessel itself, its cargo and contents, and other-property damage (e.g., damage to pier structures and waterfront facilities). Injury severity for a ferry vessel accident is measured as an ordinal variable — no injuries, non-fatal injuries and fatal injuries. Damage cost and injury severity of individual ferry vessel accidents are expressed as functions of the type of vessel accident, vessel characteristics, vessel operation phase, weather/visibility conditions, type of waterway, type of vessel propulsion, type of vessel hull construction and cause of vessel accident. The property damage estimation results suggest that allision, collision and fire ferry vessel accidents incur more vessel property damage cost per vessel gross ton than other types of accidents. The injury severity estimation results suggest that injury severity is greater when the ferry vessel accident is caused by human error as opposed to vessel and environmental factors.     

货运技术与海损事故

本文结合稳性不足与倾覆沉船事故、大型散货船强度不足与船体毁损事故、货堆倒塌移动与倾斜倾覆事故、湿货渗水流动与倾斜倾覆事故、甲板货装载不当与船体损伤及倾覆沉船事故、“危险货物”装运不当与船毁人伤及水域污染事故等六个突出问题,系统地阐明了货运技术与海损事故的因果关系,并提出相应预防措施,以供广大航运工作者借鉴,从而达到避免或减少海上事故的目的     

Risk analysis of maritime accidents along the main route of the Maritime Silk Road: a Bayesian network approach

ABSTRACT

The safety of maritime transportation along the twenty-first century Maritime Silk Road (MSR) is important to ensure its development and sustainability. Maritime transportation poses risks of accidents that can cause the death or injury of crew members and damage to ships and the environment. This paper proposes a Bayesian network (BN) based risk analysis approach that is newly applied in the main route of the MSR to analyse its relevant maritime accidents. The risk data are manually collected from the reports of the accident that occurred along the MSR. Next, the risk factors are identified and the results from the modelling method can provide useful insights for accident prevention. Historical data collected from accident reports are used to estimate the prior probabilities of the identified risk factors influencing the occurrence of maritime accidents. The results show that the main influencing factors are the type and location of an accident and the type, speed, and age of the involved ship(s). In addition, scenario analysis is conducted to analyse the risks of different ships in various navigational environments. The findings can be used to analyse the probability of each possible maritime accident along MSR and to provide useful insights for shipowners’ accident prevention.     

城市道路平面交叉口交通事故分析

以青岛市市南区平面交叉口交通事故为研究对象,分析了事故发生的主要原因和类型,鉴别了交通事故“黑点”,分析了“黑点”的道路特征,对比了道路交通事故与平面交叉口交通事故的特征,提出了在一定的条件下可将城市道路就近划为平面交叉口范围的观点,为平面交叉口的规划、设计提供基础数据。     

基于“浴盆”曲线的海事预防分析

船舶海上交通事故是随机事件,很难预测,但事故发生也有其规律,掌握了事故规律就有可能控制和预防事故。通过"浴盆"曲线分析"人"和"机"两因素与海事之间的内在联系,旨在认识海事发生的规律,有效减少发生海事的风险,预防海事的发生。     

港口工程重大事故隐患辨识的研究

我国目前尚未制定港口工程重大事故隐患辨识的相关规定或标准,人们对港口工程重大事故隐患的认定没有统一的认识,差异很大,为此,提出了港口工程重大事故隐患辨识的3种研究方法(事故演绎、事故隐患风险评估和专家咨询),为以后制定港口工程重大事故隐患辨识标准提供了技术支持。