Uncertainty analysis of value for money assessment for public-private partnership projects

In recent years, private sectors are encouraged to take an active part in franchising of urban infrastructure investments and operations, which promotes the rapid development of public-private partnership (PPP) in infrastructure and public service supply. Value for money (VFM) assessment has been officially proposed to provide a reference for selection of projects planning to adopt PPP. Based on the bottlenecks of VFM application in China and the uncertainties for urban infrastructure PPP projects, a discounted cash flow (DCF) model is established for VFM of infrastructure PPP projects. Then, a Monte Carlo simulation model is established on the basis of uncertainty factors for VFM. Through the analysis of Huai’an trams PPP project, coping strategies of uncertainties for VFM are put forward. Findings of the research may propel the establishment of a complete VFM evaluation system for PPP projects. Key instructional functions of VFM during the process of decision-making can be brought into full play and PPP may develop orderly.     

Geometric calibration algorithm of polarization camera using planar patterns

Polarization pattern provides additional information besides spectral signatures. It can be used in many applications, such as navigation, defect detection and object identification. A novel polarization camera composed of four synchronized cameras is proposed, and it can realize real-time polarization measurement. This study particularly concentrates on the geometric calibration of the system. The projection model is analyzed and the multi-camera calibration algorithm is proposed. Firstly, each camera is calibrated separately using planar patterns, and then the geometric calibration algorithms are performed. Due to the geometrical constraint, a global optimization method results in smaller estimation uncertainties. A mean rotation error of 0.025° and a mean translation error of 0.26mm are achieved after geometric calibration. The images are rectified to establish a correspondence among cameras and are combined to acquire the polarization measurement. The polarization pattern of the skylight is measured by the system and the results are consistent with the previous studies.     

Seafarers’ perceptions of competency in risk assessment and management: an empirical study

Past analysis of accident investigations suggest an absence of or inadequate practices of risk assessment and management on board vessels. Although the International Management Code for the Safe Operation of Ships and for Pollution Prevention (ISM Code) requires that the risk management process must not only be correctly formulated and implemented but also be periodically evaluated in order to verify that these objectives are attained, the correct and effective implementation and application of the process cannot be achieved without active involvement of competent seafarers on board. Due to the limited investigation of seafarers’ competencies in risk management, the reasons for the inadequacies in the process that are leading to accidents were not evident. Hence, using a survey, this paper conducted a pilot study investigating seafarers’ perceptions of competency in the various components of the risk management process conducted on board vessels. The findings of this paper suggest an overall satisfaction with the risk assessment process. However, there is certainly room for improvement as far as seafarers’ performance is concerned. The findings of this paper provided valuable insights into the current training regimes in the area of risk assessment and management paving the way towards enhanced safety procedures on board vessels.     

Automatic outer surface extraction of femoral head in CT images

Computer-aided hip surgery planning and implant design applications require accurate segmentation of femoral head and proximal acetabulum. An accurate outer surface extraction of femoral head using marching cubes algorithm remains challenging due to deformed shapes and extremely narrow inter-bone regions. In this paper, we present an automatic and fast approach for segmentation of femoral head and proximal acetabulum which leads to accurate and compact representation of femoral head using marching cubes algorithm. At first, valley-emphasized images are constructed from original images so that valleys stand out in high relief. Otsu’s multiple thresholding technique is applied to seperate the images into bone and non-bone classes. Region growing method and threedimensional (3D) morphological operations are performed to fill holes in the bone. In the reclassification process, the bone regions are further segmented, and the boundaries of the bone regions are further refined based on Bayes decision rule. Finally, marching cubes algorithm is applied to reconstruct a 3D model and extract the outer surface of femoral head and proximal acetabulum. Experimental results show that this method is an accurate segmentation technique for femoral head and proximal acetabulum and it can be applied as a tool in medical practice.     

Comparison on travel scheduling between driving and walking trips by habitual car users

Research on walking behavior has become increasingly more important in the field of transportation in the past decades. However, the study of the factors influencing the scheduling decisions related to walking trips and the exploration of the differences between travel modes has not been conducted yet. This paper presents a comparison of the scheduling and rescheduling decisions associated with car driving trips and walking trips by habitual car users using a data set collected in Valencia (Spain) in 2010. Bivariate probit models with sample selection are used to accommodate the influence of pre-planning on the decision to execute a travel as pre-planned or not. The explicative variables considered are: socio-economic characteristics of respondents, travel characteristics, and facets of the activity executed at origin and at destination including the scheduling decisions associated with them. The results demonstrate that a significant correlation exists between the choices of pre-planning and rescheduling for both types of trips. Whether for car driving or walking trips, the scheduling decisions associated with the activity at origin and at destination are the most important explicative factors of the trip scheduling and rescheduling decisions. However, the rescheduling of trips is mainly influenced by modifications in the activity at destination. Some interesting differences arise regarding the rescheduling decision processes between travel modes: if pre-planned, walking trips are less likely to be modified than car driving trips, showing a more rigid rescheduling behavior.     

道路交通事故清障救援装备专用作业装置测试与评价

针对道路交通事故综合救援装备专用作业装置存在功能不匹配、性能适应性差等问题,参照《清障车》(QC/T 645)和《道路车辆清障救援操作规范》(JT/T 891),提出了道路交通事故清障救援装备专用作业装置的测试与评价方法。并在此基础上,以某型道路交通事故综合救援装备为例,分别选取空载、额定载荷、超载、侧绞盘载荷、托臂载荷、扶正等系列工况测评。验证结果表明:该型道路交通事故综合救援装备的功能和性能均合格。     

Hybrid process of fabricating high-quality micro wine-glass fused silica resonators

A new hybrid method, which combines improved glass-blown technology with wet etching, is reported to fabricate micro wine-glass resonators with high-quality fused silica. The optimum placement is compared to achieve the resonators with good shell shape. The typical shell diameter is about 4mm and its thickness covers from dozens to hundreds of micrometers. The etching rates in corrosion solutions with different ratios and at different thicknesses of hemispherical shells are studied. We also conclude how to precisely control the thickness. The corrosion solutions with different ratios of HF solution to NH₄F solution make the spherical shells rougher in different degrees. The best roughness is 0.581 nm in the 1: 8 ratio corrosion solution while the original roughness is 0.537 nm. This fact shows that the resonator remains atomically smooth surface. Based on the glassblowing spherical fused silica structure, the thickness of the resonator is effectively controlled by buffered oxide etch (BOE) technology according to the measured etching rate. The measured resonant frequency of the hemispherical shell at ambient pressure and room temperature is 1.75 kHz of rocking mode which is close to the simulated frequency. Using such a low-cost hybrid approach, we can fabricate high-quality microscale resonators in batch.     

Approximate method for reliability assessment of complex phased mission systems

Phased-mission systems (PMSs) have wide applications in engineering practices, such as manmade satellites. Certain critical parts in the system, such as cold standby, hot standby and functional standby, are designed in redundancy architecture to achieve high reliability performance. State-space models such as Markov process have been used extensively in previous studies for reliability evaluation of PMSs with dynamic behaviors. The most popular way to deal with the dynamic behaviors is Markov process, but it is well known that Markov process is limited to exponential distribution. In practice, however, the lifetime of most machinery products can follow non-exponential distributions like the Weibull distribution which cannot be handled by the Markov process. In order to solve this kind of problem, we present a semi-Markov model combined with an approximation algorithm to analyze PMS reliability subjected to non-exponential failures. Furthermore, the accuracy of the approximation algorithm is investigated by comparing to an accurate solution, and a typical PMS (attitude and orbit control system) is analyzed to demonstrate the implementation of the method.     

Impacts of urban built environment on empty taxi trips using limited geolocation data

This study identifies the determinants of the empty taxi trip duration (ETTD) by combining three high-resolution databases—geolocation data in New York City, geodatabase of urban planning data, and transportation facilities data. Considering the nature of duration data, hazard-based duration model is proposed to explore the relationships between causal factors and ETTD, coupling with three variations of baseline hazard distribution, i.e., Weibull distribution with heterogeneity, Weibull distribution, and log-logistic. Furthermore, the likelihood ratio test is presented to implement comparisons of three baseline hazard distributions, as well as spatial and temporal transferability of causal factors. The results show significant complementary effects by subway system and competitive effects by city bus and bicycling system, as well as significant impacts of trip length, airport trip, average annual income, and employment rate. Urban built environment, for instance, density of road, public facilities, and recreational sites and ratio of green space, has various impacts on ETTD. The elasticity estimations confirm significant spatial and temporal heterogeneity in impacts on ETTD. In addition, the analysis on elasticity also reveals the considerable impacts of severe traffic congestion on ETTD within Manhattan. The modeling can assist stakeholders in understanding empty taxi movements and measuring taxi system efficiency in urban areas.     

Techno-economic study of LNG diesel power (dual fuel) ship

This article mainly proposed three technically effective alternatives to comply with the emission control regulations and laws in shipping. Liquefied natural gas (LNG)-diesel dual fuel power technology was introduced through feasibility study on several aspects including research development, retrofitting methods, vessel type, safety issues, and other technical characteristics. Based on sample ship and route, economic evaluation was conducted on these three alternatives. Cost-effectiveness of each project was detailed in the calculation of net present value (NPV) and payback time via discount cash flow method. The findings show that LNG-diesel dual fuel power technology performs best among three alternatives. Due to the impact of fuel price, two scenarios were carried out in sensitivity analysis which witnessed a variation of NPV with the fluctuation of fuel price. Further study shows the turning point between project (i) and project (iii) with different discount rate and the interaction between discount rate and fuel price, left project (ii) the least cost-effective solution in three alternatives.